Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    The future potential hydrogen demand in energy-intensive industries - a site-specific approach applied to Germany
    ( 2022)
    Neuwirth, Marius orcid-logo
    ;
    Fleiter, Tobias
    ;
    Manz, Pia orcid-logo
    ;
    Hofmann, René
    Hydrogen, when based on renewable electricity, can play a key role in the transition towards CO2-neutral industrial production, since its use as an energy carrier as well as a feedstock in various industrial process routes is promising. At the same time, a large-scale roll-out of hydrogen for industrial use would entail substantial impacts on the energy system, which can only be assessed if the regional distribution of future hydrogen demand is considered. Here, we assess the technical potential of hydrogen-based technologies for energy-intensive industries in Germany. The site-specific and process-specific bottom-up calculation considers 615 individual plants at 367 sites, and results in a total potential hydrogen demand of 326 TWh/a. The results are available as an open dataset. Using hydrogen for non-energy-intensive sectors as well increases the potential hydrogen demand to between 482 and 534 TWh/a for Germany - based on today's industrial structure and production output. This assumes that fossil fuels are almost completely replaced by hydrogen for process heating and feedstocks. The resulting hydrogen demand is very unevenly distributed: a few sites account for the majority of the overall potential and, similarly, the bulk of demand is concentrated in a few regions with steel and chemical clusters.
  • Publication
    A concept to assess the costs and benefits of renewable energy use and distributional effects among actors: The example of Germany
    ( 2016)
    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
    ;
    Held, Anne
    ;
    Resch, Gustav
    This paper describes a concept for the detailed assessment of the costs and benefits of renewable energy technologies deployment. A first quantitative impact assessment of German renewable energy technologies use is conducted from a historical perspective based on this comprehensive method. It includes costs and benefits at three different levels - energy system, micro- and macro-economic. The findings suggest that, at the system level, the generation costs in the electricity and heat sector are partly compensated by positive effects mainly from avoided emissions due to the use of renewable energy technologies in the electricity and heat sector. On the electricity market, small power consumers bear a very large share of the policy costs, while others might even profit from renewable energy technologies use. However, a comprehensive assessment that accounts for all the different negative and positive effects in the long term, including distributional effects, is more challenging. The concept applied here allows a differentiated comparison of a wide range of effects including aggregated costs and benefits as well as how these are distributed across different economic actors.
  • Publication
    Renewable energy deployment in Europe up to 2030 and the aim of a triple dividend
    ( 2016)
    Duscha, Vicki
    ;
    Fougeyrollas, Arnaud
    ;
    Nathani, Carsten
    ;
    Pfaff, Matthias
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Resch, Gustav
    ;
    Schade, Wolfgang
    ;
    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
    ;
    Walz, Rainer orcid-logo
    Renewable energy sources (RES) play a key role in the European Commission's 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, which aims for a low-carbon economy that increases the security of the EU's energy supplies and creates new opportunities for growth and jobs, among other benefits. We assess whether renewable energy deployment in Europe can provide this ""triple dividend"", at which ambition levels of 2030 RES targets and what the role of the support policy scheme for electricity is. We apply two types of models: a detailed techno-economic sector model of the deployment of RES and two macroeconomic models. Our findings suggest that up to 2030 our triple-dividend hypothesis holds even under a declining role of Europe as technology provider for the rest of the world. Additional emission reductions of up to 1040 Mt CO2, as compared to a baseline scenario in 2030, are possible. Demand for fossil fuels can likewise be reduced due to the deployment of renewable energy sources by up to 150 Mtoe. More ambiguous is the order of magnitude of the effects on GDP and employment, which differs noticeably depending on the economic theory applied in the different models. Nevertheless, both models predict slightly higher GDP and employment in 2030 when implementing ambitious RES targets.
  • Publication
    A prospective assessment of costs and benefits of renewable energy use in the European Union
    ( 2016)
    Resch, Gustav
    ;
    Welisch, Marijke
    ;
    Liebmann, Lukas
    ;
    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
    ;
    Held, Anne
    This article presents the outcomes of an assessment of expected costs and benefits of future renewable energy use in the European Union by 2020 and beyond. A binding European Union-wide renewable energy systems target of achieving at least 27% renewable energy systems share in gross final energy demand by 2030 was adopted by the Council of the European Union in October 2014. This has to be seen as an important first step in defining the framework for renewable energy systems post-2020. Other steps, like a clear concept for and an agreement on the effort sharing across Member States have to follow. For doing so, clarity on associated costs and benefits of the future renewable energy systems expansion across European Union Member Sta-tes appears highly beneficial. The aim of this article is to contribute to the renewable energy systems policy debate, providing an indication of costs and benefits resulting from increased renewable energy systems deployment within the European Union in the 2020 and 2030 frameworks. Within the discussion of costs and benefits, we follow a standardized concept that takes into account the diversity of policies in force and depicts the cost and benefits of renewable energy systems deployment at different le-vels, avoiding double counting or mixing up of effects. The outcomes of the analysis presented here remain, however, incomplete, focussing on certain indicators and on a related cross-country comparison rather than presenting a complete overview on expected impacts of future renewable energy systems deployment within the European Union.