Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    How to integrate real-world user behavior into models of the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars - An in-depth comparison of three models for Germany
    ( 2022)
    Gnann, Till orcid-logo
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    Speth, Daniel orcid-logo
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    Seddig, Katrin
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    Stich, Meike
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    Schade, Wolfgang
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    Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J.
    The future market diffusion of alternative fuels in the passenger car sector is of great interest to both carmakers and policymakers in order to decrease CO2 emissions. The decision to buy a car is not totally objective and only partly based on cost. For this reason, those modeling the future market evolution of cars powered by alternative fuels try to include behavioral and non-cost related aspects. This paper analyzes the integration of user behavior into market diffusion models and compares three models that include this aspect. The comparison comprises three parts: first, it compares the modeling approaches, then uses a harmonized data set to model the future market diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles, with and without behavioral aspects. The most important aspects of user behavior included in the models are the use of charging infrastructure, the limited model availability, the consideration of range anxiety as a hampering factor or the willingness-to-pay-more for alternative drivetrains as a supporting factor, as well as a distinction of users' driving distances. User behavior is considered in various ways, but always has a limiting effect on electric vehicle market diffusion. While a model that distinguishes individual users and driving distances stresses the high relevance of this aspect, it is considered less important in models with a more aggregated inclusion of user behavior based on logit functions.
  • Publication
    Impact of electric trucks powered by overhead lines on the European electricity system and CO2 emissions
    ( 2019)
    Plötz, Patrick orcid-logo
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    Gnann, Till orcid-logo
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    Jochem, Patrick
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    Yilmaz, Hasan Ü.
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    Kaschub, Thomas
    Despite the comparatively limited stock of vehicles, heavy-duty road transport is responsible for a major share of CO2 emissions from the European transport sector. Electric trucks powered by overhead lines, so-called trolley trucks or catenary hybrid trucks, have been proposed as a potential GHG mitigation option. However, from the perspective of the energy system, trolley trucks constitute an additional and inflexible electricity demand. Here, we analyse scenarios with an ambitious European market diffusion of trolley trucks and their impact on the electricity system and CO2 emissions. Our results show that trolley trucks can noteworthily reduce the CO2 emissions from heavy road transport even when the additional CO2 emissions from electricity generation are taken into account. Furthermore, the actual impact of the additional load from trolley trucks on the total energy system is limited. Compared to the anticipated electricity demand from passenger cars in 2030, trolley trucks require less energy and the load is more equally distributed over daytime. Our findings thus show that electric trucks are an interesting option for CO2 mitigation in heavy road transport.