Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    Supply curves of electricity-based gaseous fuels in the MENA region
    ( 2021)
    Lux, Benjamin orcid-logo
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    Gegenheimer, Johanna
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    Franke, Katja
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    Sensfuß, Frank
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    The utilization of electricity-based fuels (e-fuels) is a potential strategy component for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union (EU). As renewable electricity production sites in the EU itself might be scarce and relatively expensive, importing e-fuels from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) could be a complementary and cost-efficient option. Using the energy system model Enertile, supply curves for hydrogen and synthetic methane in the MENA region are determined for the years 2030 and 2050 to evaluate this import option techno-economically. The model optimizes investments in renewable electricity production, e-fuel production chains, and local electricity transport infrastructures. Analyses of renewable electricity generation potentials show that the MENA region in particular has large low-cost solar power potentials. Optimization results in Enertile show for a weighted average cost of capital of 7% that substantial hydrogen production starts above 100 e/MWhH2 in 2030 and above 70 e/MWhH2 in 2050. Substantial synthetic methane production in the model results starts above 170 e/MWhCH4 in 2030 and above 120 e/MWhCH4 in 2050. The most important cost component in both fuel production routes is electricity. Taking into account transport cost surcharges, in Europe synthetic methane from MENA is available above 180 e/MWhCH4 in 2030 and above 130 e/MWhCH4 in 2050. Hydrogen exports from MENA to Europe cost above 120 e/MWhH2 in 2030 and above 90 e/MWhH2 in 2050. If exported to Europe, both e-fuels are more expensive to produce and transport in liquefied form than in gaseous form. A comparison of European hydrogen supply curves with hydrogen imports from MENA for 2050 reveals that imports can only be economically efficient if the two following conditions are met: Firstly, similar interest rates prevail in the EU and MENA; secondly, hydrogen transport costs converge at the cheap end of the range in the current literature. Apart from this, a shortage of land for renewable electricity generation in Europe may lead to hydrogen imports from MENA. This analysis is intended to assist in guiding European industrial and energy policy, planning import infrastructure needs, and providing an analytical framework for project developers in the MENA region.
  • Publication
    Factors affecting the calculation of wind power potentials: A case study of China
    ( 2021)
    Franke, Katja
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    Sensfuß, Frank
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    Deac, Gerda orcid-logo
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    Kleinschmitt, Christoph
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    Ragwitz, Mario
    In order to mitigate global climate change and air pollution, the Chinese government has assigned high priority to expanding low-carbon power generation in China. Recent studies have shown that wind power is one of the most promising renewable energy option in China. Although many studies have estimated the generation potential of onshore wind power, their results vary widely from 1783 TWh to 39,000 TWh. Therefore, we examine the different assumptions in these papers and identify three main factors influencing the results. The three influencing factors are: weather data set, land utilisation factor, and wind turbine configuration. For our model-based analysis, we define a reference scenario which is used to compare the results. Our analysis shows using a different weather data set increases the generation potential to roughly 35,000 TWh. This is 54% higher than the generation potential of the reference scenario. The land utilisation factor also has a large influence, ranging between -10% and -51%. The studies' assumptions and data should be subjected to careful scrutiny, as the calculated wind power potentials are widely used to develop decarbonisation strategies for the energy system.
  • Publication
    Impacts of avalanche effects of price-optimized electric vehicle charging - Does demand response make it worse?
    ( 2021)
    Kühnbach, Matthias
    ;
    Stute, Judith orcid-logo
    ;
    Klingler, Anna-Lena
    Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to provide substantial potential for demand response (DR) and, thus, the integration of renewable electricity sources in the future energy system. However, DR can also have noticeable negative consequences, so-called avalanche effects. We systematically assess under which circumstances avalanche effects occur and what impact they have on the electricity system and cost savings for EV owners. Our results show that DR can provoke unwanted avalanche effects, which are particularly strong beyond 2030, when the leverage of EV charging will have increased to a significant level. It is possible to avoid avalanche effects by using a dynamically updated DR signal. If this is used, our findings confirm that shifting charging load from peaks to hours of low or negative residual load reduces the peak and variance of residual load and facilitates the integration of renewables.
  • Publication
    Sector coupling technologies in gas, electricity, and heat networks. Competition or synergy?
    ( 2020)
    Oberle, Stella orcid-logo
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    Stute, Judith orcid-logo
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    Fritz, Markus orcid-logo
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    Klobasa, Marian orcid-logo
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    Wietschel, Martin
    Current investment in distribution networks for electricity, gas, and heat is high, and the distribution networks play a prominent role in the necessary transformation of the energy system. This paper provides insights into the relationship between residential end-user decisions on heat supply and their effect on infrastructure planning. Therefore, the gas, electricity, and heat networks are analyzed together. After a review of the characteristics of the networks, the most common sector coupling technologies are compared economically and environmentally. The results show that, under the assumptions made, heat pumps are the cheapest option for residential end-users in the long run. This raises the question of whether a parallel development of three different infrastructures for the heat supply of buildings is the best path to a successful energy transition.
  • Publication
    Impact of electric vehicles: Will German households pay less for electricity?
    ( 2020)
    Kühnbach, Matthias
    ;
    Stute, Judith orcid-logo
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    Gnann, Till orcid-logo
    ;
    Wietschel, Martin
    ;
    Marwitz, Simon
    ;
    Klobasa, Marian orcid-logo
    High energy efficiencies imply that electric mobility is regarded as an important technological option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. However, electric vehicles (EVs) also have impacts on electricity grids and electricity generation. Hence, this paper explores how private EVs affect residential electricity prices in Germany. We examine effects of EVs on electricity generation, the contribution of controlled charging and impacts on distribution grid grids. We show that in 2030, private EVs can reduce the electricity prices for households since at distribution grid level, the additional electricity demand increases the overall utilisation of the grid and lowers specific costs. Because the additional load of EVs leads to an increased usage of power plants with higher variable costs, there is the opposite effect on electricity generation costs, although limited by controlled charging. Overall, the effect of rising electricity generation costs is usually overcompensated by falling specific grid charges.