Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Data protection impact assessments in practice

2022 , Friedewald, Michael , Schiering, Ina , Martin, Nicholas , Hallinan, Dara

In the context of the project "A Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA) Tool for Practical Use in Companies and Public Administration" an operationalization for Data Protection Impact Assessments was developed based on the approach of Forum Privatheit. This operationalization was tested and refined during twelve tests with startups, small- and medium sized enterprises, corporations and public bodies. This paper presents the operationalization and summarizes the experience from the tests.

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Understanding the controversial impact of new societal trends on long-term energy demand in European countries

2021 , Mikova, Nadezhda , Brugger, Heike , Rosa, Aaron , Eichhammer, Wolfgang

The development of future energy demand is dependent on the complex relationship between technological and social innovations, the economic and political conditions that define societal behaviours and the influence of 'mega-trends' on systems. The beginning phases of the NewTRENDs project - the EU study commissioned under the H2020 program - was designed to identify and outline the elements of this complexity to improve upon the current state of energy demand models. We argue that to more accurately capture the system dynamics that effect energy demand, the traditional technology-focused modelling approach must be extended to account for new societal trends - emerging issues, institution shifts, conditions and additional factors that have substantial, and potentially disruptive, impacts on future energy demand. In this paper, we identify the new societal trends that are expected to be most relevant or disruptive for future energy demand. This is done in three consecutive steps. First, we selected energy relevant new societal trends based on an analysis of previous foresight studies and long-term energy demand scenarios. Second, in three expert workshops the trends were clustered and their potential importance and disruptiveness was assessed. Third and finally, the narratives for the resulting 14 major new societal trend clusters were developed describing the potential mechanisms of their controversial impact and disruptiveness for future energy demand. This paper builds the foundation for future work, where the identified trend clusters and narratives will inform the enhancement of energy demand models, which are frequently used to model European long-term energy and emissions scenarios. Furthermore, the narratives build the basis for scenario work and the cross-sectoral modelling of the trends. This contributes to a better understanding of potential non-linear developments of future energy demand and how energy (efficiency) policies could be designed to take these trends meaningfully into account.

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On the way to low-emission European buildings: Investigating the role of non-ETS CO2 pricing in the residential and tertiary sectors

2021 , Alibas, Sirin , Fleiter, Tobias , Manz, Pia , Elsland, Rainer

The review of the Paris Agreement in December 2020 necessitates that the EU member states reduce their GHG emissions to 55% of 1990 levels by 2030 and become climate-neutral by 2050. According to European Commission's Impact Assessment on Europe's 2030 climate ambition, CO2 pricing in building sectors can be an effective instrument for the decarbonisation, but it has certain limitations. Here, we make an analysis of where the EU building sectors are heading from the planned perspective and we conduct a CO2 price sensitivity analysis with the energy demand simulation model FORECASTTM. Five different CO2 price pathways are simulated; starting from an average of 14e/tCO2eq in 2020 and going up to between 77e/tCO2eq and 350e/tCO2eq in 2050. The projections show that EU buildings could achieve 85% direct emission reduction in 2050 at the current pace of the measures. However, CO2 pricing alone, even if it is very high, does not carry the overall sector emissions to the target levels of the Paris Agreement. The decarbonisation of the EU building stock would require the implementation of more ambitious accompanying measures that overcome barriers not addressed by the CO2 price. Looking ahead, the analysis should be extended to include carbon-neutral PtX fuels in the decarbonisation of building heating and the effect of CO2 pricing in the electricity and district heating supply should be considered.

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The European way of doing Artificial Intelligence: The state of play implementing Trustworthy AI

2021 , Beckert, Bernd

"Trustworthy AI" is the concept of the European Commission to facilitate acceptance and diffusion of Artificial Intelligence in Europe. The concept claims that European AI applications shall be lawful, ethical and robust, both from a technical and societal perspective. The contribution asks for the state of play of implementing the concept of Trustworthy AI. More concretely, it sets out to identify concrete cases of implementing Trustworthy AI in order to analyse approaches and experiences. However, it turns out that such projects currently only exist in a research context and at neither large companies nor start-ups or medium-sized companies provide suitable examples, with only a few exceptions. This gives rise to the question, why companies today ignore or even avoid the carefully worked out guidelines to implement Trustworthy AI. Three answers are given which refer to time-to-market considerations, different mindsets of software engineers and social scientists, and the fact that implementing Trustworthy AI requires of firms to go the extra mile with additional expertise and governance structures. Following this, two possibilities are presented to increase in the number of companies actually picking up on the guidelines and concretely implementing Trustworthy AI. These possibilities are firstly to break down existing implementation guidelines to the requirements of software engineers, computer scientists and managers, and secondly to embed social scientists and stakeholders in the implementation process.

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The path towards industry 4.0. A comprehensive methodology for researching Serbian manufacturing industry. A research proposal

2022 , Horvat, Djerdj , Marjanovic, Ugljesa , Pavlovic, Marko , Rakic, Slavko

Since Industry 4.0 (I4.0) has become the guiding principle of manufacturing companies and policymakers in the majority of developed countries, many emerging economies have also adopted this concept to improve their national competitiveness and catch up with Western economies. The previous research presented that there are three main conditions for successful adoption and implementation of I4.0: technological, environmental, and organizational. Moreover, due to complexity caused by, e.g., cultural, political, economic, etc. differences, the conceptualization of such a methodology for emerging economies like Western Balkan countries is particularly challenging. Following the identified gap in lacking comprehensive research on the manufacturing sector's readiness for industrial digital transformation in Western Balkan region (e.g. Republic of Serbia), in this paper is presented a research proposal for researching the I4.0 readiness of the Serbian manufacturing industry.

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Conceptualizing the "Energy Efficiency First" principle: From foundations to implementation

2021 , Mandel, Tim , Pató, Zsuzsanna , Broc, Jean-Sébastien

Energy Efficiency First (E1st) has recently entered the EU policy agenda. Although its general rationale has been described in the Governance Regulation and in grey literature, a lack of shared understanding remains about the principle's implications for investment and policymaking. This paper seeks to synthesise views on the principle, enhance its conceptual foundations and illustrate possible routes to implementation. First, it explores the historical and practical background of E1st by comparing the principle with similar regulatory concepts from outside the EU, including Least-Cost Planning, Integrated Resource Planning, and Demand-Side Management. This shows that the basic idea behind E1st, i.e. establishing a level playing field for demand- and supply-side resources, is not entirely new and that lessons can be learnt from related concepts. Second, it provides a theoretical foundation for E1st. By looking at the topic of the energy efficiency gap, as well as market and behavioural failures, the paper explains why, at present, demand- and supply-side resources are not on equal footing. It then explains what would need to change to establish an adequate balance. Third, based on this conceptual background, the article discusses possible avenues for putting E1st into practice with in the EU's institutional framework. It does so by introducing two complementary institutional arrangements for E1st: (i) centralised decision-making (e.g. prescription of cost-benefit analysis in network planning) and (ii) decentralised market-based decision-making (e.g. ensuring market access for demand-side resources in power markets).

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Are economic principles a driver or a barrier for energy efficiency and climate policy?

2021 , Braungardt, Sibylle , Schumacher, Katja , Bürger, Veit , Keimeyer, Friedhelm , Quack, Dietlinde , Wolff, Franziska , Aydemir, Ali , Lünenbürger, Benjamin

Economic principles are at the heart of key policies addressing or affecting energy efficiency. Minimum energy performance standards are typically based on an economic efficiency principle, where the ambition of the minimum requirements depends on economic costs and benefits. Examples from different governance levels include the least-life-cycle-costs approach in the EU Eco-design Directive, the cost-optimality approach in the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and the German building codes, where the requirement for micro-level cost efficiency acts as barrier for setting more ambitious standards. Also, some public procurement approaches are based on economic principles, where requirements to include life-cycle costs and/or external environmental costs can provide a driver for the uptake of energy efficiency technologies. In view of the fundamental role of energy efficiency policy for reaching climate targets, this article addresses the question how innovative approaches to use economic principles in policy formulation can foster the deployment of energy efficiency solutions. To this end, we analyse different approaches for using economic principles in minimum energy performance standards and in public procurement processes, including the recently introduced requirement to consider the costs of climate action in Federal procurement processes specified in the German Federal Climate Change Act. We derive recommendations on how to use economic principles in policy formulation as a driver rather than a barrier for the deployment of energy efficiency solutions.

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CO2-neutrale Prozesswärmeerzeugung in heterogenen Anwendungen - Ein Diffusionsmodell mit hoher Auflösung

2021 , Rehfeldt, Matthias , Neusel, Lisa , Neuwirth, Marius

In diesem Beitrag zur IEWT 2021 wird ein Modell zur Berechnung der Wirtschaftlichkeit, Attraktivität und Diffusion CO2-neutraler Prozesswärmeerzeugung vorgestellt. Es untersucht gezielt und auf hohem Detailgrad üblicherweise vernachlässigte Anwendungen auf ihr Potential zur Dekarbonisierung. Dafür wird ein aus verschiedenen Maßnahmen zusammengesetztes Paket - von Preissignalen über Verhaltensänderung bis Ordnungsrecht - stufenweise angewendet, um die Diffusion von Alternativtechniken zu fördern. Für den am Beispiel von drei Anwendungen dargestellten Bereich der Dampferzeugung ergeben sich untereinander stark ähnelnde Modellergebnisse und Schlussfolgerungen, die darauf hindeuten, dass der Dampfbereich zusammenfassend beurteilt werden kann. Die erhobenen Daten beschränken sich auf Deutschland, die verwendete Methode und die Erkenntnisse sind aber auch für andere Länder mit vergleichbarer Industriestruktur relevant.

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Neue Ansätze des präventiven regionalen Strukturwandels und Implikationen für das gesamtdeutsche Fördersystem

2021 , Stahlecker, Thomas , Hansmeier, Hendrik , Koschatzky, Knut

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Ist der regulatorische Rahmen von Gasverteilnetzen für die zukünftigen Herausforderungen im deutschen Energiesystem gewappnet?

2021 , Oberle, Stella , Gnann, Till

Um die Klimaziele erreichen zu können, wird langfristig die Gasnachfrage insbesondere im Gebäudesektor sinken, da ein starker Wettbewerb zwischen Wärmepumpen, Wärmenetzen und Gasbrennwertkesseln zur Wärmeversorgung in Gebäuden vorherrscht. Eine sinkende Gasnachfrage bei einer unveränderten Größe des Gasnetzes führt zu steigenden Netzentgelten. Ein Rückbau der Gasverteilnetze und somit eine Größenreduktion des Gasnetzes kann diesem Trend entgegenwirken und einen wirtschaftlichen Betrieb des verbleibenden Netzes gewährleisten. In diesem Papier wird anhand eines Beispielnetzbetreibers untersucht, ob die Anreizregulierung einen effizienten Betrieb der Gasverteilnetze im Energiesystem bis 2050 fördert. Hierfür werden die Erlösobergrenze und der Kapitalwert von vier verschiedenen Szenarien miteinander verglichen und anhand von verschiedenen Nachfrageentwicklungen die Netzentgelte abgeleitet, um die Auswirkung auf die Endverbraucher zu verdeutlichen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass zwar eine Steigerung des Effizienzwertes die Verluste in den Szenarien verringert, aber das Szenario mit den höchsten wirtschaftlichen Verlusten auch die höchsten Erlöse genehmigt bekommt. Dies lässt bezweifeln, dass der aktuelle regulatorische Rahmen für die Herausforderungen des Gasverteilnetzes im zukünftigen Energiesystem geeignet ist.

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