Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    The race between hydrogen and heat pumps for space and water heating: A model-based scenario analysis
    ( 2024)
    Billerbeck, Anna orcid-logo
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    Kiefer, Christoph P. orcid-logo
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    Winkler, Jenny
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    Bernath, Christiane orcid-logo
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    Sensfuß, Frank
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Müller, Andreas
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    Ragwitz, Mario
    This paper analyses different levels and means of the electrification of space and hot water heating using an explorative modelling approach. The analysis provides guidance to the ongoing discussion on favourable pathways for heating buildings and the role of secondary energy carriers such as hydrogen or synthetic fuels. In total, 12 different scenarios were modelled with decarbonisation pathways until 2050, which cover all 27 member states of the European Union. Two highly detailed optimisation models were combined to cover the building stock and the upstream energy supply sector. The analysis shows that decarbonisation pathways for space and water heating based on large shares of heat pumps have at least 11% lower system costs in 2050 than pathways with large shares of hydrogen or synthetic fuels. This translates into system cost savings of around €70 bn. Heat pumps are cost-efficient in decentralised systems and in centralised district heating systems. Hence, heat pumps should be the favoured option to achieve a cost-optimal solution for heating buildings. Accordingly, the paper makes a novel and significant contribution to understanding suitable and cost-efficient decarbonisation pathways for space and hot water heating via electrification. The results of the paper can provide robust guidance for policymakers.
  • Publication
    One service fits all? Insights on demand response dilemmas of differently equipped households in Germany
    ( 2024)
    Pelka, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Preuß, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Stute, Judith orcid-logo
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    Chappin, Emile
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    Vries, Laurens de
    Households equipped with flexible technologies, such as electric vehicles, can support the energy transition by shifting electricity consumption to times of high renewable supply and by preventing consumption peaks that cannot be covered by existing grid and generation infrastructure. Demand response services support households in performing these consumption shifts. Households ask for specifications of services that stand partly in contrast to each other. For instance, while electric vehicle owners tend to insist on retaining control over their charging, others prefer data-driven automation to minimize their active involvement. Recent studies exploring the acceptance of demand response services focused either solely on specific household groups (e.g. electric vehicle users) or on a broad representative sample without further differentiation. Complementarily to fill this gap, we examine differences in preferences for contrasting service designs between household groups. Specifically, we consider: (i) the type of flexible technology to which demand response is applied, and (ii) the adoption level, i.e., whether the households plan to, or currently own, a flexible technology. In a vignette survey, we examine the preferences towards four contrasting service designs with German households that either own or have expressed interest in acquiring a flexible technology (n = 962). Our results show that the preferences do not fundamentally differ between the kind of flexible technology and adoption level. Generally, participants prefer automated demand response services with data sharing. The added value of realizing energy cost savings effectively and efficiently stands out as the main driver for the diffusion of demand response services, outweighing data privacy concerns. Contrary to our expectations, electric vehicle owners did not show a special need for control and households not yet owning flexible technologies did not express a need for little effort. We discuss the implications of our findings for demand response service providers and outline pathways of future research in this domain.
  • Publication
    How do dynamic electricity tariffs and different grid charge designs interact? - Implications for residential consumers and grid reinforcement requirements
    ( 2024)
    Stute, Judith orcid-logo
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    Klobasa, Marian orcid-logo
    Dynamic electricity retail tariffs and different grid charge designs are discussed as key measures to support renewable energy integration. This article investigates the interplay between both, examining their impact on residential consumers regarding their economic savings and choice of retail tariff and on grid reinforcement requirements in low-voltage grids. We use a model-based approach for determining grid reinforcement requirements combined with an optimization model to assess residential consumer behavior towards different combinations of dynamic electricity retail tariffs and grid charge designs. We explore how these options influence the choice of households in Germany to invest in a home energy management system and to opt for a dynamic electricity retail tariff. Our findings show that with a grid charge design with capacity subscription, the share of households utilizing their flexibility and opting for a dynamic electricity retail tariff can be increased up to 74% (vs. 67% for a volumetric grid charge design). Furthermore, grid reinforcement costs can be reduced with a capacity subscription based grid charge design by 37% in rural low-voltage grids compared to the current grid charge design in Germany. This study offers novel perspectives on the interplay of dynamic electricity retail tariffs and grid charge designs, emphasizing the need for integrated policy approaches that allow residential consumers to benefit from reduced electricity costs while limiting grid reinforcement costs for distribution system operators.
  • Publication
    Balancing the books: unveiling the direct impact of an integrated energy system model on industries, households and government revenues
    ( 2024)
    George, Jan Frederick orcid-logo
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    Marx, Alexander
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    Held, Anne
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    Winkler, Jenny
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    Bekk, Anke
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    Ragwitz, Mario
    Background: The transition towards a sustainable energy system is reshaping the demand for final energy, driven by the diffusion of new end-use technologies. This shift not only impacts consumers’ energy expenses, but also holds implications for the public budget. Building on data from a German energy transition scenario, we analyse the direct impact of energy costs on industries, low-income households, and changes in government revenues from the taxes and levies on final energy carriers. Our analysis considers the impact of current policies and explores a scenario introducing additional excise tax rates to offset potential revenue losses. Results: We found that substantial carbon price increases could generate revenues that offset the losses from excise taxes on fossil fuels while enabling the financing of renewable support from the public budget by the end of this decade. Nevertheless, a decline in government revenues from taxes and levies is anticipated after 2030 until the middle of the century due to the declining use of fossil fuels. Maintaining current excise tax revenues during the transition could be achieved by introducing additional excise taxes on fossil fuels and electricity. Lastly, our analysis indicated a continuous decline in household energy expenditures until 2050, whereas energy-intensive industries face adverse impacts due to decarbonisation. Conclusions: This research provides valuable insights into the fiscal implications of the energy transition, shedding light on different industrial sectors and households while considering the evolving impact on the public budget. Policymakers may need to consider systemic reforms or alternative financing mechanisms outside the energy system to balance the books.
  • Publication
    Assessing the conditions for economic viability of dynamic electricity retail tariffs for households
    ( 2024)
    Stute, Judith orcid-logo
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    Pelka, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Kühnbach, Matthias orcid-logo
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    Klobasa, Marian orcid-logo
    The success of the energy transition relies on effectively utilizing flexibility in the power system. Dynamic tariffs are a highly discussed and promising innovation for incentivizing the use of residential flexibility. However, their full potential can only be realized if households achieve significant benefits. This paper specifically addresses this topic. We examine the leverage of household flexibility and the financial benefits of using dynamic tariffs, considering household heterogeneity, the costs of home energy management systems and smart meters, the impact of higher electricity prices and price spreads and the differences between types of prosumers. To comprehensively address this topic, we use the EVaTar-building model, a simulation framework that includes embedded optimization designed to simulate household electricity consumption patterns under the influence of a home energy management system or in response to dynamic tariffs. The study's main finding is that households can achieve significant cost savings and increase flexibility utilization by using a home energy management system and dynamic electricity tariffs, provided that electricity prices and price spreads reach higher levels. When comparing price levels in a low and high electricity price scenario, with an increase of the average electricity price by 15.2 €ct/kWh (67% higher than the average for the year 2019) and an increase of the price spread by 8.9 €ct/kWh (494% higher), the percentage of households achieving cost savings increases from 3.9% to 62.5%. Households with both an electric vehicle and a heat pump observed the highest cost benefits. Sufficiently high price incentives or sufficiently low costs for home energy management systems and metering point operation are required to enable households to mitigate rising electricity costs and ensure residential flexibility for the energy system through electric vehicles and heat pumps.
  • Publication
    Perception of district heating in Europe: A deep dive into influencing factors and the role of regulation
    ( 2024)
    Billerbeck, Anna orcid-logo
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    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
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    Preuß, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Winkler, Jenny
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    Ragwitz, Mario
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    Keles, Dogan
    To increase the deployment of district heating in line with European targets, there is a need to understand consumer perceptions and the role of regulations. Therefore, this paper focuses on consumer perceptions of district heating and analyses the influencing factors. The analysis uses data from an online survey with 4388 participants from nine European countries. In particular, the paper discusses the impact of socio-demographic factors, attitudes and regulations on the perception of district heating. Statistical analyses show that respondents from Denmark and Sweden have the most positive perception, while respondents from Lithuania and the Netherlands have a less positive perception of district heating. In addition, the results indicate that respondents from countries with no mandatory connection, liberalised price regulation and mainly public ownership seem to have a more positive perception of district heating, higher satisfaction when using district heating and a more positive rating of their heating price than those from countries with mandatory connection, regulated prices and a more mixed ownership structure. Overall, the paper provides a first overview of possible factors influencing the perception of district heating and indicates that the mix of appropriate regulations and, in particular, their combined impact, could play an important role in perception.
  • Publication
    Was bewegt die regionalen Energieversorger? Eine Marktanalyse von Strom-, Gas- und Wärmenetzbetrieben
    ( 2024)
    Friedmann, Annabel
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    Oberle, Stella orcid-logo
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    Wietschel, Martin
    Dieser Beitrag befasst sich mit der aktuellen Marktsituation von Strom-, Gas- und Wärmenetzbetrieben. Mittels einer Umfrage unter 1.024 Netzbetrieben in Deutschland sowie insgesamt 11 Expert*inneninterviews zeigt die Studie neben den Synergien und Konkurrenzsituationen auch Chancen sowie Herausforderungen sowie unterschiedliche Organisationsstrukturen auf.
  • Publication
    The landlord-tenant dilemma: Distributional effects of carbon prices, redistribution and building modernisation policies in the German heating transition
    ( 2023)
    George, Jan orcid-logo
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    Werner, Simon
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    Preuß, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Winkler, Jenny
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    Held, Anne
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    Ragwitz, Mario
    A carbon price on heating fuels aims to reduce the use of fossil energy in the heating sector. However, it has a greater effect on tenants than on landlords. The heating transition requires adequate building insulation for efficientuse of low-temperature technologies. To encourage this particular kind of investment, German landlords are given the option to apply a modernisation levy of up to 8% on top of rents. Similar to carbon pricing, rent increases cause distributional effects. The net effect of these measures on tenants has not been analysed so far. Using a micro-simulation integrating representative empirical data on tenant households in Germany from KOSMA and the detailed building database TABULA, we analyse direct distributional effects of a carbon price (€55/t and €250/t), a per-capita redistribution of carbon price revenues and the modernisation levy (8% and 2% rent increases). The analysis shows that carbon prices and modernisation levies have strong regressive effects. These can be mitigated by the per-capita redistribution. However, the effect on tenants within a given income decile varies largely due to the diversity of buildings. Thus, when designing and evaluating policies, looking at average effects is not sufficientto assess economic impacts for individual households.
  • Publication
    Potentials of direct air capture and storage in a greenhouse gas-neutral European energy system
    ( 2023)
    Lux, Benjamin orcid-logo
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    Schneck, Niklas
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    Pfluger, Benjamin
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    Männer, Wolfgang
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    Sensfuß, Frank
    Negative emission technologies will likely be needed to achieve the European Commission's goal of greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050. This article investigates the potential of reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere via the DACCS pathway, i.e., to capture CO2 from the ambient air and permanently store it in geological formations. Since the capture of CO2 from ambient air is energy-intensive, this study particularly models the integration of DACCS plants into a greenhouse gas-neutral European energy system. The model results show that DACCS in Europe 2050 could cost between 160 €/tCO2 and 270 €/tCO2 with very conservative techno-economic assumptions and between 60 €/tCO2 and 140 €/tCO2 using more progressive parameters. Annually capturing 5% of Europe's 1990 emissions with a fully electric DACCS system would increase the capacities of onshore wind by 80–119 GWel and PV by 85–126 GWel. In the model results, Sweden, the Iberian Peninsula, Norway, and Finland incorporate the essential characteristics for a successful deployment of capturing and storing CO2 from ambient air: Sufficiently large geological CO2 storage capacities and relatively low-cost, vacant renewable power generation potentials. The low DACCS costs could minimize the cost of combating climate change and prevent the implementation of more expensive mitigation strategies. On the other hand, a DACCS-based climate protection strategy is fraught with the risks of CO2 storage leaks, acceptance problems for the additional required expansion of renewable energies, and premature depletion of global CO2 storage potentials.
  • Publication
    Policy frameworks for district heating: A comprehensive overview and analysis of regulations and support measures across Europe
    ( 2023)
    Billerbeck, Anna orcid-logo
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    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
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    Winkler, Jenny
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    Bürger, Veit
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    Köhler, Benjamin
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    Bacquet, Alexandre
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    Popovski, Eftim
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    Fallahnejad, Mostafa
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Ragwitz, Mario
    This paper presents an overview of policy frameworks for district heating (DH) in Europe. We develop a classification for policy aspects addressing DH, comprising regulation of ownership, prices, metering, consumer grid connection, third party access as well as support schemes and carbon taxes. This classification builds on existing literature and expert assessments collected in an online survey and interviews. The relevance of the paper lies in giving a comprehensive picture of the existing policy frameworks for DH in 23 European countries. For the overview, the countries are clustered along assigned categories. It is shown that the policy frameworks for DH can be clustered into five distinguishable groups. While some countries apply very strict regulations in special DH laws, others rely on less regulatory intervention, both with varying degrees of support for DH in place. The different policy frameworks are discussed in the context of the diffusion of DH and the integration of renewable and waste heat in DH. This analysis shows that high shares of DH and high shares of renewable and waste heat in DH can be observed in countries with a high degree of regulation as well as in countries with less regulatory intervention in DH markets.