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Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
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PublicationExport Potentials of Green Hydrogen - Methodology for a Techno-Economic Assessment(Fraunhofer ISI, 2023)
;Abdel-Khalek, Hazem ;Drechsler, Björn ;Bergup, Emily Felicitas ;Sinha, Mohammad ;Fragoso García, Joshua ;Holst, MariusVoglstätter, ChristopherThis working paper describes the quantitative and model-based methodology used in HYPAT to assess hydrogen and Power-to-X (PtX) export potentials in the countries Morocco, Ukraine, Namibia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Chile, Canada, Brazil, and New Zealand. The results of the techno-economic assessment are further used as a basis for a global hydrogen and PtX atlas, and as an indication of the price development of hydrogen and PtX. -
PublicationUkrainian Hydrogen Export Potential: Opportunities and Challenges in the Light of the Ongoing War(Fraunhofer ISI, 2023)
;Sukurova, Natalia ;Fragoso García, Joshua ;Kantel, Anne ;Jalbout, Eddy ;Abdel-Khalek, Hazem ;Bergup, EmilyThe purpose of the working paper is to study the hydrogen export potential of Ukraine, including the opportunities and challenges in light of the ongoing war, based on the analyses of national and international sources as well as the modeling and calculations conducted within the HYPAT project. The carried-out analysis of the current trends and developments of the hydrogen economy in Ukraine shows that de-spite the ongoing war, the EU remains interested in Ukraine as a potential future hy-drogen supplier. Techno-economic assessment reveals the following: green steel could become an important export product in the future, generating additional reve-nues in the country; Ukraine has a well-established infrastructure for exporting hydro-gen and Power-to-X products to Western Europe via pipelines and seaports, but the repurposing of this infrastructure needs to be further investigated; important energy infrastructures and land for potential renewable energy deployment are currently oc-cupied by the Russian military. It is determined that the war's uncertain duration in-creases the risks of investing in developing the large RE potential in Ukraine so, low-cost RE might only be sufficient to cover domestic demand. The following opportuni-ties and obstacles are highlighted: the development of a hydrogen economy can bring socio-political advantages, but the large-scale hydrogen production in Ukraine might be limited due to water scarcity and competitive water use for the agricultural sector and could imply higher energy costs for households. -
PublicationWar in Ukraine: Implications for the European and German strategies for importing hydrogen and synthesis products. Position paper(Fraunhofer ISI, 2022-03)
;Fragoso García, Joshua ;Löschel, Andreas ;Biesewig, Lars ;Thiel, Zarah ;Voglstätter, Christopher ;Nunez, Almudena ;Quitzow, Rainer ;Kunze, Robert ;Stamm, Andreas ;Strohmaier, RitaLorych, LudgerRussia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led many to question the formerly held certainty that close trade relations result in a stable energy supply. Hydrogen, which is expected to play an important role in the future, is particularly affected by this. Against this background, among other things, this position paper addresses new approaches to assessing partner countries for hydrogen imports, the development of import costs, and the potential for hydrogen production in the EU. The paper also addresses the future economic development of Ukraine through the production and transportation of hydrogen. -
PublicationFuture hydrogen demand: A cross-sectoral, global meta-analysis(Fraunhofer ISI, 2022)Kunze, RobertHydrogen and synthesis products are considered to be of high importance in future energy systems and therefore play an increasing role in climate change mitigation strategies. This working paper provides an overview of over 40 scenarios from published energy system studies for the future development of hydrogen demand from a global perspective as well as for the EU and China. Demand projections are compared for the sectors industry, buildings and transport up to the year 2050. The results are further compared to the bandwidth of hydrogen demand in the scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. The findings show that hydrogen is needed to reach climate neutrality in most scenarios and it will become an important, but not a dominant energy carrier in the future. The scenarios show a large range in hydrogen demand both in absolute and in relative terms, which indicates a high uncertainty in the ramp of hydrogen markets. Globally, the hydrogen share in 2050 ranges between 4-11% of total final energy demand. In all regions, the transport sector has the largest share of hydrogen in total energy demand and the largest absolute hydrogen demand. In the EU, the hydrogen share in transport energy ranges from 13-36%% and is considerably higher than globally and in China (10-19%) in 2050. The hydrogen demand projections for industry are between 2%-9% share of industry energy demand in 2050. In the building sector, the role of hydrogen is smaller than in the other sectors in all regions assessed (global share between 1%-2% in 2050).
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PublicationKrieg in der Ukraine: Auswirkungen auf die europäische und deutsche Importstrategie von Wasserstoff und Syntheseprodukten. Impulspapier(Fraunhofer ISI, 2022)
;Fragoso García, Joshua ;Löschel, Andreas ;Biesewig, Lars ;Thiel, Zarah ;Voglstätter, Christopher ;Nunez, Almudena ;Quitzow, Rainer ;Kunze, Robert ;Stamm, Andreas ;Strohmaier, RitaLorych, LudgerDer Angriffskrieg von Russland auf die Ukraine hat auf vielen Seiten zur Erkenntnis geführt, dass die bisher geltende Gewissheit, dass enge Handelsbeziehungen zu einer stabilen Energieversorgung führen, zu hinterfragen ist. Das Zukunftsthema Wasserstoff ist davon in besonderem Maße betroffen. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschäftigt sich das Impulspapier unter anderem mit neuen Ansätzen der Bewertung von Partnerländern beim Wasserstoffimport, der Entwicklung von Importkosten und den Potenzialen für eine Wasserstoffherstellung in der EU. Zudem geht das Papier auf die künftige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der Ukraine durch die Erzeugung und den Transport von Wasserstoff ein. -
PublicationImport von Wasserstoff und Wasserstoffderivaten: Von Kosten zu Preisen(Fraunhofer ISI, 2021)
;Fragoso García, Joshua ;Thiel, ZarahLöschel, AndreasNach heutigem Kenntnisstand wird Deutschland zur Erreichung seiner ambitionierten Ziele auf den Import von Wasserstoff und Wasserstoffderivaten angewiesen sein. Vor dieser Problemstellung wird hier erstmals ein Ansatz vorgestellt, wie man sich eine künftige Marktentstehung vorstellen kann und wie man von Herstellkosten zu Preisen kommen könnte. Hierzu wird die Entwicklung eines partiellen Gleichgewichtsmodells skizziert mit preiselastischen Angebots- und Nachfrage-funktionen und den Einbezug von Transportkosten. In diesem werden auch die Länderrisiken und der Einfluss der Regulierung berücksichtigt. -
PublicationImporting hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives: from costs to prices(Fraunhofer ISI, 2021)
;Fragoso García, Joshua ;Thiel, ZarahLöschel, AndreasCurrent knowledge indicates that Germany will have to rely on importing hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives to achieve its ambitious targets. Against this background, for the first time, an ap-proach was presented for how to envisage a future emerging market and how to move from pro-duction costs to prices. For this purpose, the development of a partial equilibrium model is out-lined with price-elastic supply and demand functions and the inclusion of transport costs. In this model, country risks and the influence of regulation are also taken into account.