Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    The effects of hydrogen research and innovation on international hydrogen trade
    ( 2024)
    Asna Ashari, Parsa
    ;
    Blind, Knut orcid-logo
    Climate change and the pressure to decarbonize, as well as energy security concerns, have drawn the attention of policymakers and the industry to hydrogen energy. To advance the hydrogen economy at a global scale, research and innovation progress is of significant importance, among others. However, previous studies have provided only limited quantitative evidence of the effects of research and innovation on the formation of a global hydrogen market. Instead, they postulate rather than empirically support this relationship. Therefore, this study analyzes the effects of research and innovation measured by scientific publications, patents, and standards on bilateral hydrogen trade flows for 32 countries between 1995 and 2019 in a gravity model of trade, using regression analyses and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation. The main results of the PPML estimation show that research and innovation progress is indeed associated with increased trade, especially with patenting and (international) standardization enhancing hydrogen export volumes. As policy implications, we derive that increased public R&D funding can help increase the competitiveness of hydrogen energy and boost market growth, along with infrastructure support and harmonized standards and regulations.
  • Publication
    Social innovation, transformation, and public policy: towards a conceptualization and critical appraisal
    ( 2024)
    Edler, Jakob orcid-logo
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    Ostertag, Katrin orcid-logo
    ;
    Schuler, Johanna orcid-logo
    This article conceptualizes the role of social innovation (SI) in transformational innovation policy, identifies policy options, and points out potential risks of mobilizing SI for transformations. We illustrate our conceptual claims based on selected policy examples and propose a set of distinctions about the basic role of policy for SI in the context of transformation. We distinguish the importance of SI for the two policy approaches: transformative innovation policy and mission-oriented innovation policy. It follows that politics must differentiate between the various types of SI and their different significance for missions and transformations. To decide whether and how policy intervenes, ex ante and ex post analyses of the transformational effects of SI and the policies that act on them must be developed and applied. It is crucial to accompany and promote the diversity of SIs politically in such a way that they can constructively unfold their transformation potential.
  • Publication
    AI‑based decision support systems and society: An opening statement
    ( 2024)
    Schneider, Diana orcid-logo
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    Weber, Karsten
    Although artificial intelligence (AI) and automated decision-making systems have been around for some time, they have only recently gained in importance as they are now actually being used and are no longer just the subject of research. AI to support decision-making is thus affecting ever larger parts of society, creating technical, but above all ethical, legal, and societal challenges, as decisions can now be made by machines that were previously the responsibility of humans. This introduction provides an overview of attempts to regulate AI and addresses key challenges that arise when integrating AI systems into human decision-making. The Special topic brings together research articles that present societal challenges, ethical issues, stakeholders, and possible futures of AI use for decision support in healthcare, the legal system, and border control.
  • Publication
    The interplay between innovation, standards and regulation in a globalising economy
    ( 2024)
    Blind, Knut orcid-logo
    ;
    Münch, Florian
    To examine the different roles of regulation and standards in the age of globalisation, we hypothesize and investigate the relation of regulation and national and international standards on the one hand with innovation input (R&D expenditure) and innovation output (patents) on the other hand. The analysis is based on data of 26 high-income countries between 1998 and 2018. There are two main results. Firstly, international standards outperform both de-regulation and national standardisation as they are positively associated with R&D expenditure and patenting. On the other hand, national standards - once believed a source of competitiveness - are negatively related to patents and hence seem to localize economies and slow-down innovation. Secondly, de-regulation does not correlate positively with R&D expenditure, but with increased patenting. We argue the former suggest businesses did not - as assumed - spend freed up resources on R&D, but instead strategically used patenting to replace lost regulation-based protection with patent fences. This casts doubts on the added social value of de-regulation induced innovation.
  • Publication
    Exzellent forschen in gesellschaftlicher Verantwortung: Ergebnisse des Projekts LeNa-Shape
    ( 2024)
    Maikämper, Moritz
    ;
    Walz, Rainer orcid-logo
    Steigende gesellschaftliche Erwartungen an Wissenschaft fordern das herkömmliche Verständnis guter Forschung heraus. Im Rahmen des vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung geförderten Verbundvorhabens LeNa Shape haben Forscher(innen) von drei Universitäten sowie aus neun Einrichtungen der vier großen außeruniversitären Forschungsorganisationen Fraunhofer, Helmholtz, Leibniz und Max-Planck ein ganzheitliches Verständnis von exzellentem Forschen in gesellschaftlicher Verantwortung entwickelt. Die zentralen Ergebnisse, ein Positionspapier und eine Toolbox, werden hier vorgestellt.
  • Publication
    Empirical evidence on discrimination in multi-technology renewable energy auctions in Europe
    ( 2024)
    Buschle, Julius
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    Anatolitis, Vasilios orcid-logo
    ;
    Plötz, Patrick orcid-logo
    Auctions are a widely used policy instrument to support the deployment of renewable energies (RE). Yet, their complex design raises concerns about explicitly or implicitly discriminatory effects against particular technologies. Such discriminatory effects would distort fair competition, reduce economic efficiency, and potentially violate European Union law. Several studies analysed discriminatory auction design from a theoretical and simulation perspective but actual empirical evidence is limited. Here, we demonstrate the existence of technology discrimination in European RE auctions empirically. We apply a fractional logit model to empirically measure the impact of various auction design elements on the success of two technologies, solar PV and onshore wind, based on 57 European multi-technology RE auctions from 2011-2021. Our results confirm the existence of discriminatory effects of several auction design elements in RE auctions, such as installation size restriction, support duration, realisation period, ceiling price, and financial prequalification. The results are stable against various robustness checks such as varying the countries included, the time frame, and the composition of the regions controlled for. Our findings advance the understanding of explicitly and implicitly discriminatory effects against particular technologies in multi-technology auctions and we propose steps to reduce technology discrimination in future multi-technology RE auctions.
  • Publication
    Preserving the Past, Enabling the Future: Assessing the European Policy on Access to Archives in the Digital Age
    ( 2024)
    Friedewald, Michael orcid-logo
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    Székely, Iván
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    Karaboga, Murat orcid-logo
    In this study we investigate the implementation and challenges of accessing archives in the digital age. Through an online survey and expert interviews, data were collected from archival institutions, professional users, and civil society organizations in all Council of Europe member states. The findings reveal that digitization has had a positive impact on document accessibility, providing convenience, reducing workload, and improving user access. However, only a small portion of archival holdings have been digitized, highlighting the need for further efforts in this area. Data protection and copyright present significant obstacles, with the European General Data Protection Regulation leading to access restrictions and legal uncertainties. Preservation, interoperability, and organization of records pose challenges in the digital realm, and while artificial intelligence shows promise in automating metadata creation and identifying sensitive materials, concerns about algorithmic biases and the need for additional checks are highlighted. To enhance accessibility, user-friendly interfaces, cooperation among memory preserving institution, and outreach to new user groups are crucial, which can ensure the effective preservation and accessibility of digital collections in the digital age. We provide insights for policy-making and archival institutions in navigating the evolving landscape of accessibility.
  • Publication
    The possible future of electric road systems in Europe - time to decide and act
    ( 2024)
    Plötz, Patrick orcid-logo
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    Andersson, Matts
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    Scherrer, Aline orcid-logo
    ;
    Johansson, Erik
    Electrification of road transport is crucial to limit global warming. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) with stationary charging infrastructure have received considerable attention in the scientific literature for both cars and trucks, while dynamic charging via Electric Road Systems (ERS) has received much less attention and their future role in low-carbon road transport is uncertain. Here, we envision three potential scenarios for the future of ERS in European low-carbon transport. We sketch a potential European ERS network and discuss the political, technological, and market steps needed to realize these. We argue that existing field trials, tests, and research projects have collected sufficient evidence to make the next step: Decide and act. Decision-makers will never have perfect information about all aspects of ERS or competing technologies, but the urgency of the climate crisis requires a commitment one way or the other. A clear decision with respect to ERS would send a clear directive and would help focus time, effort, and money on the necessary infrastructure and policies to implement ambitious GHG abatement targets in road transport.
  • Publication
    Can behavioral interventions optimize self-consumption? Evidence from a field experiment with prosumers in Germany
    ( 2024)
    Pelka, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Kesselring, Anne orcid-logo
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    Preuß, Sabine orcid-logo
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    Chappin, Emile
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    Vries, Laurens de
    Aligning prosumers' electricity consumption to the availability of self-generated electricity decreases CO 2 emissions and costs. Nudges are proposed as one behavioral intervention to orchestrate such changes. At the same time, fragmented findings in the literature make it challenging to identify suitable behavioral interventions for specific households and contexts-specifically for optimizing self-consumption. We test three sequentially applied interventions (feedback, benchmark, and default) delivered by digital tools in a field experiment with 111 German households with rooftop-photovoltaics. The experiment design with a control-group, baseline measurements, and high-frequency smart-meter-data allows us to examine the causal effects of each intervention for increasing self-consumption. While feedback and benchmark deliver small self-consumption increases (3-4 percent), the smart changing default leads to a 16 percent increase for active participants. In general, households with controllable electric vehicles show stronger effects than those without. For upscaling behavioral interventions for other prosumers, we recommend interventions that require little interaction and energy literacy because even the self-selected, motivated sample rarely interacted with the digital tools.
  • Publication
    The long term price elastic demand of hydrogen - A multi-model analysis for Germany
    ( 2024)
    Weißenburger, Bastian orcid-logo
    ;
    Wietschel, Martin
    ;
    Lux, Benjamin orcid-logo
    ;
    Rehfeldt, Matthias orcid-logo
    Hydrogen and its derivatives are important components to achieve climate policy goals, especially in terms of greenhouse gas neutrality. There is an ongoing controversial debate about the applications in which hydrogen and its derivatives should be used and to what extent. Typically, the estimation of hydrogen demand relies on scenario-based analyses with varying underlying assumptions and targets. This study establishes a new framework consisting of existing energy system simulation and optimisation models in order to assess the long-term price-elastic demand of hydrogen. The aim of this work is to shift towards an analysis of the hydrogen demand that is primarily driven by its price. This is done for the case of Germany because of the expected high hydrogen demand for the years 2025-2045. 15 wholesale price pathways were established, with final prices in 2045 between 56 €/MWh and 182 €/MWh. The results suggest that - if climate targets are to be achieved - even with high hydrogen prices (252 €/MWh in 2030 and 182 €/MWh in 2045) a significant hydrogen demand in the industry sector and the energy conversion sector is expected to emerge (318 TWh). Furthermore, the energy conversion sector has a large share of price sensitive hydrogen demand and therefore its demand strongly increases with lower prices. The road transportation sector will only play a small role in terms of hydrogen demand, if prices are low. In the decentralised heating for buildings no relevant demand will be seen over the considered price ranges, whereas the centralised supply of heat via heat grids increases as prices fall.