Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    How to integrate real-world user behavior into models of the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars - An in-depth comparison of three models for Germany
    ( 2022)
    Gnann, Till orcid-logo
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    Speth, Daniel orcid-logo
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    Seddig, Katrin
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    Stich, Meike
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    Schade, Wolfgang
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    Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J.
    The future market diffusion of alternative fuels in the passenger car sector is of great interest to both carmakers and policymakers in order to decrease CO2 emissions. The decision to buy a car is not totally objective and only partly based on cost. For this reason, those modeling the future market evolution of cars powered by alternative fuels try to include behavioral and non-cost related aspects. This paper analyzes the integration of user behavior into market diffusion models and compares three models that include this aspect. The comparison comprises three parts: first, it compares the modeling approaches, then uses a harmonized data set to model the future market diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles, with and without behavioral aspects. The most important aspects of user behavior included in the models are the use of charging infrastructure, the limited model availability, the consideration of range anxiety as a hampering factor or the willingness-to-pay-more for alternative drivetrains as a supporting factor, as well as a distinction of users' driving distances. User behavior is considered in various ways, but always has a limiting effect on electric vehicle market diffusion. While a model that distinguishes individual users and driving distances stresses the high relevance of this aspect, it is considered less important in models with a more aggregated inclusion of user behavior based on logit functions.
  • Publication
    Household acceptability of energy efficiency policies in the European Union: Policy characteristics trade-offs and the role of trust in government and environmental identity
    ( 2022)
    Faure, Corinne
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    Guetlein, Marie-Charlotte
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    Schleich, Joachim orcid-logo
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    Tu, Gengyang
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    Whitmarsh, Lorraine
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    Whittle, Colin
    This research investigates the acceptability of energy efficiency policies among European households. Based on large-scale surveys in Italy, Poland, Sweden, and the UK, we use a discrete choice experiment to study the tradeoffs made by households between various policy characteristics including policy target level, dependence on energy imports, policy instruments (education and information programmes, standards, taxation, energy consumption limit), costs to the household, and distribution of costs between households and other sectors. In particular, we investigate the role of trust in government and of environmental identity on the acceptability of these policy characteristics. Across the four countries, we find that households prefer effective policies, dislike personal costs, and prefer non-coercive to coercive instruments; further, trust in government helps make coercive policies such as taxes more acceptable, whereas higher environmental identity makes consumption limits more acceptable.
  • Publication
    The future potential hydrogen demand in energy-intensive industries - a site-specific approach applied to Germany
    ( 2022)
    Neuwirth, Marius orcid-logo
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    Fleiter, Tobias orcid-logo
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    Manz, Pia orcid-logo
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    Hofmann, René
    Hydrogen, when based on renewable electricity, can play a key role in the transition towards CO2-neutral industrial production, since its use as an energy carrier as well as a feedstock in various industrial process routes is promising. At the same time, a large-scale roll-out of hydrogen for industrial use would entail substantial impacts on the energy system, which can only be assessed if the regional distribution of future hydrogen demand is considered. Here, we assess the technical potential of hydrogen-based technologies for energy-intensive industries in Germany. The site-specific and process-specific bottom-up calculation considers 615 individual plants at 367 sites, and results in a total potential hydrogen demand of 326 TWh/a. The results are available as an open dataset. Using hydrogen for non-energy-intensive sectors as well increases the potential hydrogen demand to between 482 and 534 TWh/a for Germany - based on today's industrial structure and production output. This assumes that fossil fuels are almost completely replaced by hydrogen for process heating and feedstocks. The resulting hydrogen demand is very unevenly distributed: a few sites account for the majority of the overall potential and, similarly, the bulk of demand is concentrated in a few regions with steel and chemical clusters.
  • Publication
    Discriminatory subsidies for energy-efficient technologies and the role of envy
    ( 2022)
    Fanghella, Valeria
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    Faure, Corinne
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    Guetlein, Marie-Charlotte
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    Schleich, Joachim orcid-logo
    Discriminatory subsidies, that is, subsidies for which only a subset of the population is eligible, are widespread. However, research on social preferences suggests that non-eligible households may negatively respond to these subsidies. We investigate both eligible and non-eligible households' response to discriminatory subsidies for smart thermostats using a discrete choice experiment with 3071 owner-occupiers from France and Romania. Households are randomly exposed to discriminatory subsidies through a between-subject design that manipulates two factors: type of discrimination (positive or negative) and eligibility criteria (based on geographical location or on household characteristics). A control condition (uniform subsidy) is also included. In addition, we elicit envy via an incentivized game in the sample from France. Our results show that eligible households are more likely to adopt a smart thermostat, regardless of whether the subsidy is uniform or discriminatory. By contrast, non-eligible households are less likely to adopt it, especially when eligibility criteria are based on household characteristics. We find no evidence for a moderating effect of envy.
  • Publication
    Sharing vehicles or sharing rides - Psychological factors influencing the acceptance of carsharing and ridepooling in Germany
    ( 2022)
    Burghard, Uta orcid-logo
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    Scherrer, Aline orcid-logo
    Shared mobility has the potential to reduce private car use and can thereby contribute to a mobility transition which reduces energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, shared mobility services still have a niche existence - even in major cities. If the goal is to establish shared mobility as a significant part of the mobility system, a key question is which factors determine the acceptance of individual services. Can perceived innovation-specific factors that can be more directly influenced by policies explain differences in attitudes and acceptance or does the explanatory power lie with psychological dispositions that are more difficult to change by policies? Do these factors apply in general or differ between different sharing services? We investigate these questions based on a survey study in major German cities to analyse the acceptance of two car-based shared mobility services, carsharing and ridepooling, in society (N = 1,531). The data analysis based on two path models shows that perceived compatibility with daily life is the most important factor related to the acceptance of carsharing and ridepooling. Perceived ease of use positively affects the general attitude towards both services. We conclude that our findings offer potential intervention routes for policies that increase the acceptance of shared mobility. The prerequisites for the services to contribute to a reduction in energy consumption in the transport sector are also discussed.
  • Publication
    How effective are EU minimum energy performance standards and energy labels for cold appliances?
    ( 2021)
    Schleich, Joachim orcid-logo
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    Durand, Antoine orcid-logo
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    Brugger, Heike orcid-logo
    In most countries, minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and energy labels are the key policies to accelerate the diffusion of energy-efficient appliances and to help meet energy efficiency and climate policy targets. This paper estimates country-specific multivariate econometric models for eight EU countries over the period of 2007 to 2017 to evaluate the combined effects of changes in the MEPS and the energy labels entering into force in the EU in 2010 and 2011. The findings suggest that these policies increased the market share of cold appliances (refrigerators and fridge-freezer combinations) with an energy label of A+ and better between about 15 and 38 percentage points. For these appliances, autonomous developments (captured through a time trend) are estimated to range between 5 and 10 percentage points per year. Thus, failure to account for autonomous developments would have resulted in substantially overestimating the combined effects of MEPS and energy label policies in the EU. The findings further imply that policy evaluations should allow for policy effectiveness and autonomous developments to differ across countries.
  • Publication
    Energy Efficiency Vision 2050: How will new societal trends influence future energy demand in the European countries?
    ( 2021)
    Brugger, Heike orcid-logo
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    Eichhammer, Wolfgang orcid-logo
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    Mikova, Nadezhda
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    Dönitz, Ewa
    New societal trends are unfolding, such as digitalization, sharing economy and consumer awareness. They will highly influence future energy demand and, depending on their realization, enhance or counteract projected energy efficiency gains. Therefore, these trends have to be accompanied by policies with a strong focus on reducing energy demand (including Energy Efficiency First). This work analyzes quantitatively for all sectors how New Societal Trends interact with energy efficiency (policies). An extensive consultation with European experts identified 12 new societal trends that are likely to shape future energy demand. Based on these, four energy demand scenarios were developed for 2050. Using literature review and expert consultations, the impacts on all sectors were evaluated taking these trends explicitly into account. The results show that New Societal Trends can have a crucial impact on future energy demand beyond mere techno-economic potentials. In the best case scenario, ""New Trends Efficient"", they can reduce final energy demand by 67% compared to the EU ""Baseline"" scenario in 2050. While in the ""Worst Case"" scenario, they could increase final energy demand by 40%. This paper opens up the discussion on how New Societal Trends will shape future energy demand and emphasizes the crucial role of policy-making therein.
  • Publication
    Effects of rescaling the EU energy label on household preferences for top-rated appliances
    ( 2021)
    Faure, Corinne
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    Guetlein, Marie-Charlotte
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    Schleich, Joachim orcid-logo
    The European Union has decided to replace its previously existing A+++ to D labelling scheme for cold appliances with a rescaled A to G labelling scheme in 2021. Employing a demographically representative discrete choice experiment on refrigerator adoption using an online survey among more than 1000 households in Germany, this paper explores the effects of the rescaled scheme compared to the previous scheme on the stated uptake of top-rated refrigerators, i.e. those classified A+++ under the previous scheme and B under the rescaled scheme. Since in practice both schemes may be shown for a transitory period, the paper also explores the effects of displaying both labels simultaneously. The findings from estimating a mixed logit model suggest that showing the rescaled label alone significantly increases valuation of top-rated refrigerators compared to showing the previous A+++ to D label alone. In comparison, when the previous A+++ to D and the rescaled A to G schemes are shown simultaneously, no benefits of introducing the rescaled label are found. Thus, policymakers should strive to enforce the application of the rescaled labelling scheme as quickly as possible and to shorten transitory periods where both labels are shown simultaneously.
  • Publication
    CO2 fleet regulation and the future market diffusion of zero-emission trucks in Europe
    ( 2021)
    Breed, Annelis K.
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    Speth, Daniel orcid-logo
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    Plötz, Patrick orcid-logo
    Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles and has recently been extended to heavy-duty vehicles. In Europe, truck manufacturers are required to reduce the CO2 emissions of newly sold vehicles by 30% until 2030 compared to 2019/2020. Accordingly, several manufacturers have announced the introduction of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) such as battery electric or fuel cell trucks. However, the sales shares of zero emission trucks to meet the targets have not been analyzed in the literature yet. Here, we derive sales share scenarios for zero emission trucks in Europe based on emissions reduction options and their associated costs. We find that manufacturers will require at least 4-22% of their newly sold heavy-duty vehicles to be zero emission in 2030, depending on their strategy to improve their diesel trucks. This implies a stock share of 2-11% for ZEV trucks in Europe in 2030. Yet, high sales shares for ZEVs and the super credits granted by the regulation allow manufacturers to meet their target with little CO2 reduction in the conventional fleet leading to low actual emission reduction.
  • Publication
    Adoption of retrofit measures among homeowners in EU countries: The effects of access to capital and debt aversion
    ( 2021)
    Schleich, Joachim orcid-logo
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    Faure, Corinne
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    Meissner, Thomas
    Energy efficiency policies often involve low-interest loans for retrofit measures in private buildings; the main target of these loans are meant to be households with otherwise poor access to capital. However, such programs can only be successful if the targeted households also take up these loans. This paper studies the relation between access to capital and debt aversion and the adoption of retrofit measures in European Union countries, employing a demographically representative household survey including about 6600 homeowners in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that debt aversion negatively affects the adoption of retrofit measures by homeowners. In particular, debt-averse homeowners with poor access to capital are less likely to have adopted retrofit measures than non-debt-averse homeowners with poor access to capital. The findings further provide evidence that low-interest loan programs should be targeted at younger homeowners with lower income and less formal education.