Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Future energy demand developments and demand side flexibility in a decarbonized centralized energy system

2021 , Herbst, Andrea , Klingler, Anna-Lena , Heitel, Stephanie , Manz, Pia , Fleiter, Tobias , Rehfeldt, Matthias , Fermi, Francesca , Fiorello, Davide , Martino, Angelo , Reiter, Ulrich

European final energy consumption mainly stems from five sectors: transport, households, industry, residential, and agriculture using fossil fuels as dominant energy carriers. In order to achieve the climate targets, emissions in the demand sectors must be drastically reduced. Due to different characteristics and challenges each sector needs its own strategy how to achieve such decarbonization until 2050. In the following chapter, the impacts of an ambitious mitigation scenario on future energy demand and CO2 emissions for transport, industry, residential, and tertiary are analyzed discussing sector specific decarbonization strategies and mitigation options. Implications of such strategies for demand-side flexibility and its future need are analyzed.

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Disruptive demand side technologies: Market shares and impact on flexibility in a decentralized world

2021 , Heitel, Stephanie , Klingler, Anna-Lena , Herbst, Andrea , Fermi, Francesca

Electricity demand is expected to increase strongly as electrification and the use of hydrogen are promising decarbonization options for the demand side sectors transport and industry. In a decentralized system with volatile renewable energy sources, flexibility potentials will play an important role for secure and cost-efficient electricity supply. On the demand side, decentralized PV-battery systems and electric vehicles as well as hydrogen production by electrolyzers could provide the necessary flexibility. Energy demand over time is calculated based on assumed and simulated market shares of these and other low-emission technologies. Impacts on the system and residual load are analyzed, with a focus on the contribution of load shifting as a demand-side measure. Results indicate that load shifting can contribute significantly to integrate RES electricity.

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