Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    How relevant are free-rider effects for target achievement?. Updated version
    ( 2018)
    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
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    Schlomann, Barbara
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    Voswinkel, Fabian
    To reach energy savings or greenhouse gas emission targets, energy efficiency measures that are often initiated and subsidised by governments are commonly applied. Results presented in empirical papers support the assumption that measures such as subsidized loans or grants induce the use and diffusion of energy efficient technologies. However, governments have limited budgets and thus try to use their scarce financial means as efficiently as possible: They strive to achieve energy savings goals by least costs. However, many efficiency policies are confronted with moral hazard problems, free riding, rebound effects and others. This paper discusses to what extent free riding is a problem when designing energy efficiency measures. And it debates how relevant it is for achieving the emission target. For this, the paper reviews about 50 evaluation papers addressing moral hazard and free riding problems of energy efficiency measures, compares their findings and contrasts them with different approaches assessing energy savings as well as with the different types of support measures. The results of the literature analysis show that those investors that do free-ride contribute a large share to energy savings. However, those efficiency gains are partially offset by rebound effects. Therefore, free-riding is not a problem with respect to target achievement, but a problem of cost effectiveness, while rebound effects are endangering the energy savings and emission goals. Further, we argue that free-riding is rather independent of the type of policy support, even though it is often related to public expenditures. In contrast, it depends on the ambition level of the measure. Many energy efficiency measures with low public expenditures either entail higher private expenditures or go hand in hand with a lower diffusion of efficiency technologies while increasing public expenditures increases the likelihood of free-riding. Thus, we argue that there is a trade-off between free-riding, public and private expenditures. Finally, free-riding matters with respect to cost effectiveness but not regarding target achievement.
  • Publication
    A comparison of impact evaluations ideally to be used for energy efficiency measures and evaluations used in practice: How can we close the gap?
    ( 2018)
    Eichhammer, Wolfgang orcid-logo
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    Schlomann, Barbara
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    Reuter, Matthias
    A growing number of energy efficiency (EE) targets at national and European levels make ex-post and ex‐ante evaluations of new and existing EE policies more and more important. Especially for existing measures, a mix of ex‐post evaluations (to determine the actual impact occurred so far) and the expected impacts based on the so far observed impacts (for example up to 2020) are required. National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAPs) have provided a major drive to the evaluation of energy saving measures. We base our analysis of methods to evaluate energy savings on the MURE database, which contains a structured overview of EE policies in European countries. By comparing impact evaluations actually used with those suggested as best practice, we investigate in this paper progress made with impact evaluation across European countries, which type of impact evaluations are used and which barriers to impact evaluation continue to exist. We discuss practical approaches to enhance EE evaluation by including multiple benefits into EE measures. The MURE database has set up two facilities (impact evaluation facility and multiple benefits facility), which shall support policy makers with easily accessible information on impact evaluation including multiple benefits. In such a manner, good evaluation practices will be spread out further.
  • Publication
    Accounting of energy savings in policy evaluation. How to get at least 8 different (correct!) results from the same data
    ( 2018)
    Voswinkel, Fabian
    Policy evaluations in energy efficiency are used for a variety of purposes. Each of which requires different methods to be used in quantitative accounting of savings. In broad categories, savings can be stated in annually recurring savings or in summed up values over larger time spans, with or without adjustments for effects. For that reason, it is far from trivial to define targets and methodological requirements for evaluation concisely. This paper presents four quantitative accounting methods as used in the evaluation of the German federal Energy Efficiency Fund (EEF), which consists of a wide variety of policy measures. The stated accounting methods are the new annual savings, the cumulated annual savings, the periodically cumulated savings and the lifetime savings. They can yield results that are different by a possibly high factor depending on the investment's lifetime and other characteristics. And while each of the methods is justified to be used in a policy context, the accounting method should be clearly defined and described in the evaluation study in order for the reader to be able to interpret results the right way and make informed decisions. In addition, values can be stated as gross values before or net values after effect adjustments for each of the four mentioned accounting methods. In this respect, the free-rider effect and its calculation methods are closely analysed. Summed up, evaluation, as it is performed in the EEF, can yield eight different results from the same input data. The paper presents both the theory of the accounting methods as well as their policy implications. Results are taken from a subsidised credit programme in support of investment in waste heat reduction and utilisation from the EEF. The paper systematically shows how different methodologies can lead to very different results and illustrates how strong the influence of the evaluation methodology can be onto the political outcome and the stated degree of target achievement. It puts the presented methods into context using policy examples, which require each method's results.
  • Publication
    Electric vehicle procurement decisions in fleets: Results of a case study in South-West Germany
    ( 2017)
    Guth, Daniel
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    Globisch, Joachim
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    Ensslen, Axel
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    Jochem, Patrick
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    Dütschke, Elisabeth orcid-logo
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    Fichtner, Wolf
    In order to increase the market share of electric vehicles (EV) in Germany, further insights on actors and structures of EV specific procurement decisions for fleets are necessary. Our analysis focuses on vehicles registered by companies/organizations as they dominate new vehicle registrations in Germany. The following question is examined empirically: Which departments influence EV procurement decisions in small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), in large-scale enterprises (LSE) and in public organizations (PO) and what are the differences compared to these departments' influences on internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) procurement decisions? Our results show that EV procurement decisions of organizations in South-West Germany are decisively influenced by upper management levels and partly by organizations' fleet management departments. In small and medium-sized enterprises sales- and public relations departments have a major influence on EV procurement decisions. These findings are important for stakeholders interested in selling EVs or in designing policies that are more effective in influencing organizations' decision making concerning future EV procurement decisions.
  • Publication
    Database tools for policy development - presenting building stock renovation programme potentials through Energy Saving Cost Curves
    ( 2016)
    Anagnostopoulos, Filippos
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Steinbach, Jan
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    Staniaszek, Dan
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    Toleikyte, Agne
    The use of buildings databases has an enormous potential to inform decision-making in order to decarbonize the building stock by 2050. This paper showcases the potential of databases and, by using the example of Germany, it presents a methodology for appraising the economic and energy reduction outcomes of building renovation policies. A dynamic bottom-up simulation model, the Invert/EE-Lab, evaluates the effects of three scenarios of economic and regulatory incentives for three different renovation packages oriented towards the standards defined by the German building code (EnEV) as well as the support programmes of the Federal Development Bank (KfW). Results are presented visually through Energy Saving Cost Curves which communicate the energy savings and avoided energy costs following renovation programmes of the German building stock. The results show that under a range of realistic scenarios to 2030, the total economic energy saving potentials range from 60 to 170 TWh/y, and correspond to financial savings that range from 1.2 to 6.2 bne/y. Energy Saving Cost Curves provide a means to compare the impact of different policy options from the perspective of the investor for different building categories, and can thereby feed directly into the design of renovation strategies -whether at national, regional or city level- taking into consideration economic parameters ranging from subsidies and energy prices, to transaction costs, learning curves and discount rates.
  • Publication
    Monitoring the Evolution and Benefits of Responsible Research and Innovation (MoRRI) - a preliminary framework for RRI dimensions & indicators
    ( 2016)
    Meijer, Ingeborg
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    Mejlgaard, Niels
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    Lindner, Ralf orcid-logo
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    Woolley, Richard
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    Rafols, Ismael
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    Griessler, Erich
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    Wroblewski, Angela
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    Buehrer, S. orcid-logo
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    Stilgoe, Jack
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    Tsipouri, Lena
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    Maroulis, Nikos
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    Peter, Viola