Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    A critical evaluation of 42, large-scale, science and technology foresight Delphi surveys
    ( 2022)
    Belton, Ian
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    Cuhls, Kerstin orcid-logo
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    Wright, George
    Large-scale Delphi surveys on technology foresight started in the 1960s and involve an average of about 2000 participants answering, potentially, up to about 450 items. This contrasts sharply with the participation and content of the more common, smaller-scale Delphi surveys. Previously, Belton et al. developed “six steps” to underpin a well-founded and defensible Delphi process and we apply these steps in a novel evaluation of the quality of 42 large-scale technology foresight surveys. Using a detailed analysis of two exemplar studies and a content analysis of all 42 surveys, we explore whether such surveys differ systematically from “traditional” smaller-scale Delphi surveys and, if so, why this may be and what it may mean for the quality of data produced. We conclude that there are some problematic issues within these surveys-to do with (i) data quality in both the numerical summarizing of participant's between-round feedback and in the reporting of final round numerical responses, (ii) the infrequent elicitation of rationales to justify participants' proffered numerical responses, and, when such rationales are elicited, (iii) the between-round summary and presentation of the rationales. We speculate on the reasons for these design differences in the extant large-scale surveys and conclude that extra-survey political influences, such as differing objectives and the need to demonstrate wide-ranging expert participation, may be the underlying cause. We conclude with considerations and recommendations for the design of future large-scale Delphi surveys to enable the underlying process to become better-founded and more defensible to procedural evaluation.
  • Publication
    Investigating the impact of smart energy management system on the residential electricity consumption in Austria
    ( 2022)
    Mascherbauer, Philipp
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    Kranzl, Lukas
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    Yu, Songmin orcid-logo
    ;
    Haupt, Thomas
    This paper addresses the following question: How can smart energy management system (SEMS) influence the residential electricity consumption at both individual household and national level? First, we developed an hourly optimization model for individual households. The energy cost of an individual household is minimized under given assumptions on outside temperature, radiation, (dynamic) electricity price, and feed-in tariff. By comparing the optimization to the reference scenario, we show the impact of SEMS on grid-electricity consumption and photovoltaic (PV) self-consumption at the individual household level. Second, to we aggregate the results to the national level, we constructed a detailed building stock taking Austria as an example. By aggregating the results of 2112 representative households, we investigate the impact of SEMS in the residential building stock on the national electricity system. As a result, we found that for individual single-family-houses (SFHs) with PV (no battery) and heat pump adoption, SEMS can significantly reduce the grid-electricity consumption up to 40.7% for a well-insulated building. At the national level we found that, for the buildings with 5 kWp PV but without hot water tank or battery storage, SEMS can still reduce the grid-electricity consumption by 7.4% by using the building mass as thermal storage.
  • Publication
    Car driving, air travel or more sustainable transport? Socio-psychological factors in everyday mobility and long-distance leisure travel
    ( 2022)
    Dütschke, Elisabeth orcid-logo
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    Engel, Lukas
    ;
    Theis, Anna
    ;
    Hanss, Daniel
    A decrease in unsustainable mobility is needed for everyday mobility as well as for leisure travel, here defined as overnight travel for longer distances, in order to reach decarbonisation goals. So far studies that explicitly target both are rare. The survey presented here examines socio-psychological and socio-economic variables that might influence individual use of more or less sustainable transport modes for everyday mobility and for long-distance leisure travel. It was conducted through an online questionnaire among a sample of n = 1982 residents in Germany, representative of the German population holding a drivers' license in terms of age and gender. Use of transport mode (the dependent variable) was operationalized by contrasting (a) car travel (considered the unsustainable mode) versus other transport modes for everyday mobility and (b) plane trips (the unsustainable mode) versus other transport modes for long-distance leisure travel. Respondents reported past transport mode use and intentions for future transport. Independent variables were transport habits, self-efficacy beliefs, awareness of need, awareness of consequences, perceived behavioural control, personal and social norms, non-moral aspects, emotional consequences, further negative or positive consequences (i.e., the socio-psychological variables), and socio-economic variables. Together, the socio-psychological and socio-economic variables explained significant portions of the variance in the dependent variables. Socio-economic factors were stronger predictors for everyday mobility than for long-distance leisure travel. Perceived behavioural control was an overall consistent and strong predictor, increasing the likelihood of more sustainable travel mode use. We discuss entry points for interventions based on our findings.
  • Publication
    Democratic directionality for transformative food systems research
    ( 2022)
    Duncan, Jessica
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    DeClerck, Fabrice
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    Báldi, András
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    Treyer, Sébastien
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    Aschemann-Witzel, Jessica
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    Cuhls, Kerstin orcid-logo
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    Ahrné, Lilia
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    Bisoffi, Stefano
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    Grando, Stefano
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    Guobys, Liutauras
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    Kohl, Johanna
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    Hansen, Henning O.
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    Hudson, Richard L.
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    Lutzeyer, Hans-Jörg
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    Nielsen, Vivi H.
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    Ruiz, Begoña
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    Saggau, Elke
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    Valceschini, Egizio
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    Siebielec, Grzegorz
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    Brunori, Gianluca
    Effective interfaces of knowledge and policy are critical for food system transformation. Here, an expert group assembled to explore research needs towards a safe and just food system put forward principles to guide relations between society, science, knowledge, policy and politics.
  • Publication
    A health research interdisciplinary approach for energy studies: Confirming substantial rebound effects among solar photovoltaic households in Germany
    ( 2022)
    Galvin, Ray
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    Schuler, Johannes
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    Atasoy, Ayse Tugba
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    Schmitz, Hendrik
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    Pfaff, Matthias
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    Kegel, Jan
    Interdisciplinary research is common in health studies and is developing in energy studies. This paper describes the process of interdisciplinary energy research in a large, three-year study of rebound effects among German households with photovoltaic panels (""prosumers""). The study aimed to estimate whether, and by how much, prosumers increase their electricity consumption as a consequence of installing photovoltaics. This is important because these rebound effects can thwart government goals for decarbonising electricity generation. However, the main focus of this paper is on the interdisciplinary process of obtaining our results. Our three research teams investigated rebound effects via qualitative interviews, a country-wide quantitative survey, and an analysis of self-reported consumption data. Following a classic interdisciplinary model from health studies we then brought our findings together in a series of carefully planned and led discussions, where the contradictions between the three sets of results led to new insights. We then took the interdisciplinary process a step further, as the research teams re-analysed their data from this fresh perspective. This led to consensus and the novel finding that Germany's current regulatory and pricing regime inadvertently rewards prosumers who over-consume electricity, thereby compromising policy goals. The success of the process was due to: embedding interdisciplinarity in the initial research planning and funding application; constant interactions throughout the research period; respect for each other's different disciplinary approaches; strong and well-coordinated leadership of inter-team discussions; and the novel extension of each team revisiting and reanalysing its data on the basis of the insights from these discussions.
  • Publication
    Towards improved prosumer participation: Electricity trading in local markets
    ( 2022)
    Kühnbach, Matthias
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    Bekk, Anke
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    Weidlich, Anke
    Local energy markets are a promising way to involve prosumers in the electricity system and activate demand-side flexibility. In this paper, we develop a modeling framework consisting of an optimization for prosumer home energy management systems embedded in a local energy market simulation. To enable an integrated assessment, the local market is linked to a central spot market. For each prosumer, we consider the individual flexibility potential, home storage systems, and demand response of electric vehicles. Using this model, we analyze the costs and benefits of a local market for prosumers in an energy system with a high share of renewable energy. We compare the systemic effects and the potential economic benefits of this local market for prosumers to pure self-consumption and prosumer participation in a central spot market. Applying our model to a case study of 480 prosumers, we show that a system including a local market is beneficial compared to self-consumption from a systemic perspective. However, allowing prosumers to participate directly in a central spot market is more profitable and facilitates the system integration of renewables.
  • Publication
    Development of 5G - Identifying organizations active in publishing, patenting, and standardization
    ( 2022)
    Buggenhagen, Magnus
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    Blind, Knut orcid-logo
    Publications, patents, standard-essential patents (SEPs), and standard contributions are important indicators for the drivers in the technology development of 5G. However, current 5G technology reports predominately draw on patent data to identify technology developing organizations, ignoring the importance of publications and standard contributions. Therefore, we identify 5G technology developing organizations in publishing, patenting, and standardization and compile a unique dataset to identify leading organizations per category and to identify possible correlations and interdependencies. We find that for companies offering fair, reasonable, and non-discriminatory (FRAND) licensing conditions related to standard-essential patents, their publication, patent, and standard contribution counts highly correlate. Our findings suggest that 5G technology developing companies holding a high number of patents declared to 5G manage the three contributing factors of publishing, patenting, and standardization to optimize their impact on 5G technology development. Furthermore, we show that patenting and standardization are dominated by a few large companies from the United States, China, Korea, Japan, Finland, and Sweden, while publishing is much more globally distributed and not as concentrated. Our research suggests that scientific findings can be more easily published via scientific journals and that barriers might hinder filing patents and participating in standardization committees focusing on 5G, which only large companies overcome.
  • Publication
    Guilty pleasures: Moral licensing in climate-related behavior
    ( 2022)
    Burger, Axel
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    Schuler, Johannes
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    Eberling, Elisabeth orcid-logo
    This research provides evidence for moral-licensing effects in climate-related behavior. We recruited individuals who had not travelled by airplane for private reasons during the past two years (Study 1, n = 854) or had invested in an energetic refurbishment of their homes (Study 2, n = 596) and investigated feelings and intentions toward two different problematic behaviors, namely meat consumption (Study 1) and air travel (Study 2). In a paradigm where the order of topics in the survey was varied systematically, being reminded of past climate-friendly behavior decreased the discomfort about ongoing problematic climate-related behavior in another domain (Study 1) and reduced the motivation to change the latter behavior or to mitigate its consequences (Study 2). Strength and direction of the effect were moderated by factors such as concern about climate protection, personal relevance of the problematic behavior, as well as time since and pride about the climate- friendly behavior.
  • Publication
    Can entrepreneurial orientation improve R&D alliance performance? An absorptive capacity perspective
    ( 2022)
    Seo, Ribin
    ;
    Edler, Jakob orcid-logo
    ;
    Massini, Silvia
    Research and Development (R&D) alliance studies maintain that alliance partners’ entrepreneurial interactions that pursue innovation opportunities through collective exploitation and exploration of knowledge resources lead to alliance success. Despite the importance of productive resource exchange and generation through such interactions, performance-by-alliance mechanisms remain under-researched. In this study, we develop a theoretical framework hypothesizing that the entrepreneurial orientation (EO) of alliance firms, which underlies their approach to seeking and utilizing resources productively, has a potential impact on their R&D alliance performance, depending on their absorptive capacity (AC). To specify the value creation and capture mechanism in the alliance, we adopt two performance indicators: technological competitiveness and business performance. Findings from a study of 218 small technology-intensive firms conducting R&D alliance projects show that EO translates into business performance through technological competitiveness and that AC leverages the alliance performance implications of EO. The results suggest that EO-AC complementarity is a strategic stimulant that triggers firms to extract greater benefits from R&D alliances.
  • Publication
    Corporate emissions-trading behaviour during the first decade of the EU ETS
    ( 2022)
    Abrell, Jan
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    Cludius, Johanna
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    Lehmann, Sascha
    ;
    Schleich, Joachim orcid-logo
    ;
    Betz, Regina
    This study analyses factors related to allowance-trading behaviour for the first ten years of the existence of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Our empirical analysis employs a dataset that combines information on trading activities for more than 6000 companies with company characteristics. Indicators of trading activity include the volume and the number of transactions as well as the usage of intermediaries and of derivatives markets. For 2005-2014 and for the individual trading periods, we find that trading behaviour is related to the size of a company, its net position (the difference between free allocations and verified emissions), its sector affiliation, productivity, and location. We also find evidence that trading-related transaction costs affect trading activity in the EU ETS in all trading periods. Our results further suggest that net buyers (companies whose verified emissions exceed free allocations in a given year) are more likely to participate in emissions trading and to trade at higher volumes than net sellers are. We explain this asymmetry in behaviour - which might lead to a violation of Coase's independence property - by potential asymmetries in the actual or perceived opportunity costs of holding allowances between net sellers and net buyers.