Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Export Potentials of Green Hydrogen - Methodology for a Techno-Economic Assessment

(Fraunhofer ISI, 2023)
Pieton, Natalia
;
Abdel-Khalek, Hazem
;
Graf, Marieke Emilie Anna
;
Drechsler, Björn
;
Lenivova, Veronika
;
Nolden, Christoph
;
Bergup, Emily Felicitas
;
Sinha, Mohammad
;
Fragoso García, Joshua
;
Franke, Katja
;
Kleinschmitt, Christoph
;
Müller, Viktor Paul
;
Wietschel, Martin
;
Holst, Marius
;
Weise, Friedrich
;
Voglstätter, Christopher

This working paper describes the quantitative and model-based methodology used in HYPAT to assess hydrogen and Power-to-X (PtX) export potentials in the countries Morocco, Ukraine, Namibia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Chile, Canada, Brazil, and New Zealand. The results of the techno-economic assessment are further used as a basis for a global hydrogen and PtX atlas, and as an indication of the price development of hydrogen and PtX.
Ukrainian Hydrogen Export Potential: Opportunities and Challenges in the Light of the Ongoing War

(Fraunhofer ISI, 2023)
Sukurova, Natalia
;
Wietschel, Martin
;
Fragoso García, Joshua
;
Müller, Viktor Paul
;
Franke, Katja
;
Kantel, Anne
;
Graf, Marieke Emilie Anna
;
Jalbout, Eddy
;
Pieton, Natalia
;
Abdel-Khalek, Hazem
;
Bergup, Emily
;
Weise, Friedrich

The purpose of the working paper is to study the hydrogen export potential of Ukraine, including the opportunities and challenges in light of the ongoing war, based on the analyses of national and international sources as well as the modeling and calculations conducted within the HYPAT project. The carried-out analysis of the current trends and developments of the hydrogen economy in Ukraine shows that de-spite the ongoing war, the EU remains interested in Ukraine as a potential future hy-drogen supplier. Techno-economic assessment reveals the following: green steel could become an important export product in the future, generating additional reve-nues in the country; Ukraine has a well-established infrastructure for exporting hydro-gen and Power-to-X products to Western Europe via pipelines and seaports, but the repurposing of this infrastructure needs to be further investigated; important energy infrastructures and land for potential renewable energy deployment are currently oc-cupied by the Russian military. It is determined that the war's uncertain duration in-creases the risks of investing in developing the large RE potential in Ukraine so, low-cost RE might only be sufficient to cover domestic demand. The following opportuni-ties and obstacles are highlighted: the development of a hydrogen economy can bring socio-political advantages, but the large-scale hydrogen production in Ukraine might be limited due to water scarcity and competitive water use for the agricultural sector and could imply higher energy costs for households.
Importing hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives: Export countries

(Fraunhofer ISI, 2022)
Breitschopf, Barbara
;
Thomann, Jana
;
Fragoso García, Joshua
;
Kleinschmitt, Christoph
;
Hettesheimer, Tim
;
Neuner, Felix
;
Wittmann, Florian
;
Roth, Florian
;
Pieton, Natalia
;
Lenivova, Veronika
;
Thiel, Zarah
;
Strohmaier, Rita
;
Stamm, Andreas
;
Lorych, Ludger

In many climate protection scenarios, hydrogen plays an important role as an energy carrier and raw material. With the increasing importance of hydrogen, the question of possible supplier countries is increasing. A high level of diversity in the supplying countries reduces the risk of import dependency but could lead to higher import costs. This paper evaluates potential hydrogen supplier countries based on a mix of methods. With the help of various indicators, the technical, economic, social, and political conditions as well as infrastructure and environmental aspects in possible supplier countries are analyzed first. An expert-based approach takes into account other aspects and information that cannot be captured via the indicators. After considering geopolitical, developmental, and energy supply policy goals, a ranking of supplier countries is conducted. It shows that only a few countries fulfill all the criteria. Overall, from a long-term perspective, countries from the South, Central American, and MENA regions are particularly suitable, while industrialized countries, among others EU countries, are suitable as supplier countries from a short-term perspective.
Import von Wasserstoff und Wasserstoffderivaten: Exportländer

(Fraunhofer ISI, 2022)
Breitschopf, Barbara
;
Thomann, Jana
;
Fragoso García, Joshua
;
Thiel, Zarah
;
Strohmaier, Rita
;
Stamm, Andreas
;
Hettesheimer, Tim
;
Neuner, Felix
;
Wittmann, Florian
;
Kleinschmitt, Christoph
;
Roth, Florian
;
Pieton, Natalia
;
Lenivova, Veronika
;
Lorych, Ludger

In vielen Klimaschutzszenarien nimmt Wasserstoff eine wichtige Rolle als Energieträger und Rohstoff ein. Mit zunehmender Bedeutung des Wasserstoffs stellt sich verstärkt die Frage nach möglichen Lieferländern. Eine hohe Diversität bei den Lieferländern reduziert das Risiko einer Importabhängigkeit, würde jedoch unter Umständen zu höheren Importkosten führen. Das vorliegende Papier bewertet auf Basis eines Methodenmixes mögliche Wasserstofflieferländer. Mit Hilfe verschiedener Indikatoren werden zunächst die technischen, wirtschaftlichen, sozialen und politischen Bedingungen sowie Infrastruktur- und Umweltaspekte in möglichen Lieferländern analysiert. Ein Experten basierter Ansatz berücksichtigt weitere nicht über die Indikatoren erfassbaren Aspekte und Informationen . Unter Abwägung geopolitischer, entwicklungspolitischer und energieversorgungspolitischer Ziele wird ein Ranking an Lieferländern erstellt, wobei wenige Länder alle Kriterien erfüllen. Insgesamt eignen sich unter einer langfristigen Perspektive vor allem Länder aus dem süd-, mittelamerikanischen und MENA Raum, während Industrieländer, unter anderem auch EU-Länder sich unter einer kurzfristigen Perspektive als Lieferländer anbieten.
Future hydrogen demand: A cross-sectoral, global meta-analysis

(Fraunhofer ISI, 2022)
Riemer, Matia
;
Zheng, Lin
;
Eckstein, Johannes
;
Wietschel, Martin
;
Pieton, Natalia
;
Kunze, Robert

Hydrogen and synthesis products are considered to be of high importance in future energy systems and therefore play an increasing role in climate change mitigation strategies. This working paper provides an overview of over 40 scenarios from published energy system studies for the future development of hydrogen demand from a global perspective as well as for the EU and China. Demand projections are compared for the sectors industry, buildings and transport up to the year 2050. The results are further compared to the bandwidth of hydrogen demand in the scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. The findings show that hydrogen is needed to reach climate neutrality in most scenarios and it will become an important, but not a dominant energy carrier in the future. The scenarios show a large range in hydrogen demand both in absolute and in relative terms, which indicates a high uncertainty in the ramp of hydrogen markets. Globally, the hydrogen share in 2050 ranges between 4-11% of total final energy demand. In all regions, the transport sector has the largest share of hydrogen in total energy demand and the largest absolute hydrogen demand. In the EU, the hydrogen share in transport energy ranges from 13-36%% and is considerably higher than globally and in China (10-19%) in 2050. The hydrogen demand projections for industry are between 2%-9% share of industry energy demand in 2050. In the building sector, the role of hydrogen is smaller than in the other sectors in all regions assessed (global share between 1%-2% in 2050).
Import von Wasserstoff und Wasserstoffderivaten: Von Kosten zu Preisen

(Fraunhofer ISI, 2021)
Wietschel, Martin
;
Eckstein, Johannes
;
Riemer, Matia
;
Zheng, Lin
;
Lux, Benjamin
;
Neuner, Felix
;
Breitschopf, Barbara
;
Fragoso García, Joshua
;
Kleinschmitt, Christoph
;
Pieton, Natalia
;
Nolden, Christoph
;
Pfluger, Benjamin
;
Thiel, Zarah
;
Löschel, Andreas

Nach heutigem Kenntnisstand wird Deutschland zur Erreichung seiner ambitionierten Ziele auf den Import von Wasserstoff und Wasserstoffderivaten angewiesen sein. Vor dieser Problemstellung wird hier erstmals ein Ansatz vorgestellt, wie man sich eine künftige Marktentstehung vorstellen kann und wie man von Herstellkosten zu Preisen kommen könnte. Hierzu wird die Entwicklung eines partiellen Gleichgewichtsmodells skizziert mit preiselastischen Angebots- und Nachfrage-funktionen und den Einbezug von Transportkosten. In diesem werden auch die Länderrisiken und der Einfluss der Regulierung berücksichtigt.
Importing hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives: from costs to prices

(Fraunhofer ISI, 2021)
Wietschel, Martin
;
Eckstein, Johannes
;
Riemer, Matia
;
Zheng, Lin
;
Lux, Benjamin
;
Neuner, Felix
;
Breitschopf, Barbara
;
Fragoso García, Joshua
;
Kleinschmitt, Christoph
;
Pieton, Natalia
;
Nolden, Christoph
;
Pfluger, Benjamin
;
Thiel, Zarah
;
Löschel, Andreas

Current knowledge indicates that Germany will have to rely on importing hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives to achieve its ambitious targets. Against this background, for the first time, an ap-proach was presented for how to envisage a future emerging market and how to move from pro-duction costs to prices. For this purpose, the development of a partial equilibrium model is out-lined with price-elastic supply and demand functions and the inclusion of transport costs. In this model, country risks and the influence of regulation are also taken into account.

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