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PublicationOpportunities and challenges of high renewable energy deployment and electricity exchange for North Africa and Europe - scenarios for power sector and transmission infrastructure in 2030 and 2050( 2016)Climate change and limited availability of fossil fuel reserves stress both the importance of deploying renewable energy sources (RES) for electricity generation and the need for a stronger integration of regional electricity markets. This analysis focuses on North African (NA) countries, which possess vast resources of renewable energy but whose electricity supply is still largely dependent on fossil fuels. An analysis of cost-optimized deployment scenarios for RES is conducted in five NA countries in 2030 and 2050. Three electricity models are combined to derive results covering trans-regional to sub-national level, including a detailed analysis of grid capacities and future transmission challenges. Further, opportunities for integration of European and NA electricity markets are evaluated. Results confirm that, by 2050, high RES shares - close to 100% - are possible in NA. Wind energy is the dominant technology. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants also play an important role with rising RES shares due to the possibility to store thermal energy. Electricity exports to Europe gain particular importance in the period after 2030. Substantial transmission grid reinforcements on AC-level and the construction of a high voltage DC overlay grid are prerequisites for the forecasted scenarios.
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PublicationA composite indicator for short-term diffusion forecasts of renewable energy technologies - the case of Germany( 2016)This paper investigates the impact of energy policy and the regulatory environment on the deployment of technologies based on renewable energy sources in Germany and presents a model to forecast future renewable energy technology diffusion. Our concept is based on the development of a composite indicator for renewable energy diffusion with a focus on wind energy (onshore) and photovoltaic. The approach has three major components: in-depth, semi-structured interviews with renewable energy developers and energy sector stakeholders to identify the major drivers and barriers (determinants) for renewable energy diffusion in the case study country; an EU-wide, questionnaire-based survey to understand the relevance (weights) of the individual determinants; and an analysis of past renewable energy diffusion patterns resulting in the deduction of a model for short-term renewable energy technology diffusion forecasts. Results demonstrate the substantial impact of economic and non-economic framework conditions on the diffusion of photovoltaic and wind energy in Germany. Furthermore, the use of composite indicators for renewable energy technology diffusion analyses proves to be a promising approach.
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PublicationDeterminants for the market diffusion of renewable energy technologies - An analysis of the framework conditions for non-residential photovoltaic and onshore wind energy deployment in Germany, Spain and the UK( 2016)The deployment of renewable energy (RE) technologies for electricity generation is a central element of the European energy and climate strategy and was laid down in binding targets on EU-level. The actual RE technology diffusion is, however, shaped by the framework conditions and support measures implemented in the individual EU Member States. This dissertation aims at contributing to a more integrated view of the influencing factors (determinants) for the deployment of RE technologies. To this end, a conceptual framework is drawn up to assess the boundary conditions for RE diffusion from the RE developer's perspective. The framework is operationalised using a composite indicator (CI) approach and applied in a diffusion model to allow the anticipation of possible future technology deployment. The thesis concentrates on two mainstream RE technologies, namely onshore wind and non-residential PV, and focuses on European countries. Within the analysis, particular emphasis is placed on providing a holistic assessment of the impact of economic and non-economic determinants on the diffusion of RE technologies at national level. The assessment aims at understanding RE developers' preferences and rationalities regarding the overall framework conditions for RE deployment in order to identify the drivers for and barriers to technological change and to facilitate efficient policy design and regulatory transformation. The most relevant diffusion determinants from the viewpoint of RE project developers are identified through literature research and moderated expert workshops. The relative relevance of the determinants in the diffusion process is then assessed based on an EU-wide questionnaire that resulted in the collection of >200 datasets. Building on this broad empirical basis, a composite indicator (CI) is developed for the diffusion of non-residential PV and wind onshore. The CI provides a transparent framework for the quantification of the diffusion determinants and allows an evaluation and benchmarking of national RE frameworks. In a further step, the CI is integrated in a diffusion model which enables projections of possible future market developments under different configurations of the national RE framework. This modelling approach applies and further develops established logistic models of technology diffusion. The overall approach is validated by applying it to three case study countries: Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. Data collection in these case study countries involved, among others, semi-structured interviews with 31 RE experts. The different regulatory framework conditions in the three countries lead to 3 different CI results and projected technology diffusion. The results verify the robustness of the approach and the applicability of the concept to different national contexts. The findings of this thesis contribute to the methodological and empirical basis for understanding and modelling technology diffusion processes in general and RE technology diffusion in particular. The approach developed in this thesis further improves the scientific basis for the evaluation of RE support policies and can contribute to RE targets being achieved in an efficient and sustainable way.
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PublicationDeterminants for the diffusion of renewable energy technologies - framework for assessing major factors in investors' decision-making processes( 2015)Broad deployment of renewable energy (RE) technologies is a primary objective of the European climate strategy. All European member states developed policy strategies and financial support mechanisms for renewable electricity. However, apart from the remuneration scheme, non-economic and regulatory factors influence market diffusion of RE-technologies. Diffusion results from decisions of individual actors and their perceptions of market attractiveness. Therefore, understanding the basic determinants governing their decisions is crucial to anticipate diffusion processes under given framework conditions and to develop policy tools pinpointing the essential factors and enabling RE-deployment cost- and time-efficiently. We propose a robust set of determinants for RE-diffusion and suggest respective data sources allowing for objective assessment of framework conditions on country level. Results are based on literature research, interviews and expert workshops. They are utilisable as input for construction of benchmarking tools (composite indicators) and energy economic modelling (diffusion models) and provide a sound basis for evaluation of RE-regulations and efficient policy design.
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PublicationPromoting renewable energies in the MENA region: Regulatory developments and possible interactions with future EU support schemes for RES-E( 2014)This paper assesses possible future renewable energy (RES) policy developments in Europe (EU) and in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries and points out specific requirements and potential barriers for the integration of renewable electricity (RES-E) markets among the two regions. The analysis focuses on the expected policy developments in the timeframe after 2020. Four different policy pathways are regarded which range from a continuation of the current regulatory framework to a full EU-MENA wide harmonization of RES policies. A set of criteria is developed to assess the compatibility of the policy pathways with present and planned regulatory regimes in two North African case study countries (Egypt and Morocco). Data is gathered through literature research and stakeholder interviews in EU and MENA countries. On this basis, major critical issues and barriers to EU-MENA RES cooperation are identified and recommendations for a transition towards a higher degree of regulatory compatibility are developed.
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PublicationTechnology policy for wind and solar energy in Egypt(Lahmeyer International GmbH, 2014)
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PublicationA pan-European-North African HVDC grid for bulk energy transmission - a model-based analysis( 2014)The usage of renewable energy is gaining importance due to national and international targets for reduction of CO2 emissions and consumption of fossil fuels and respective renewable energy deployment goals. Due to the volatile nature of renewable energy and regional potentials for generation in remote areas, there is a need for a better integration of generation and load centers in a common transmission infrastructure. This can be done by establishing a meshed HVDC overlay grid for bulk electricity transmission over long distances. Therefore, this paper describes the outlook for renewable energy deployment by 2050 in the North African region, as well as the potential to export renewable energy to Europe. It analyses the existing AC transmission grid infrastructure and explains why a meshed pan-European-North African HVDC overlay grid will solve the transmission requirements for the target year 2050.
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PublicationEfficient strategies for the integration of renewable energy into future energy infrastructures in Europe - an analysis based on transnational modeling and case studies for nine European regions( 2014)
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PublicationRegulativer Rahmen und Fördersysteme für erneuerbare Energien in Nordafrika(Fraunhofer ISI, 2014)
