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Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
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PublicationHow to integrate real-world user behavior into models for the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars - an in-depth comparison of three models for Germany( 2021)
;Märtz, Alexandra ;Fichtner, Wolf ;Ruppert, ManuelSeddig, Katrin -
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PublicationFuture regional distribution of electric vehicles in Germany( 2020)Electrification as an option to decarbonize road transport leads to an increasing number of electric vehicles in Germany. However, the stock of electric vehicles is not evenly distributed regionally. The local distribution of electric vehicles is particularly important from an energy system perspective in order to be able to estimate future grid loads. Here, we use multiple linear regression to distribute a German-wide market diffusion of electric vehicles to 401 NUTS3-areas in Germany. Current regional vehicle stocks and regional development data (e.g. population, income, and spatial structure) are used as independent variables. We combine these variables with forecasts for spatial development and obtain a regionalized electric vehicle market diffusion for Germany. First results suggest a concentration of BEV and PHEV stocks in southwestern Germany and in large cities in the medium-term future.
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PublicationWhat drives the usage of shared transport services?( 2020)
;Göddeke, DanielShared mobility is widely discussed, yet only few travelers actually make use of shared services. Apart from personal characteristics, the supply and more specific the supply density of shared vehicles is assumed to be crucial for a widespread shared mobility usage. In this paper, we test this hypothesis. Moreover we provide insights into the impact of current mobility behavior on the usage intention for shared transport services. For this purpose, we combine existing transport usage data with the real supply of shared vehicles in selected cities in Germany. We investigate free-floating and station-based car- and bikesharing, free-floating e-scootersharing, as well as ridesharing. To do so, we collected data on the vehicles supplied per service for beginning of 2020. In a first step, we analyze group differences in terms of intended usage between people living in cities where the services are offered and those who live in cities without access to such services. This information is used in a second step when we analyze to what extent the supply density is driving usage intention for a specific trip purpose obtained from the first analysis step. Therefore, we apply logistic regression analyses that focus on socio-demographics, the users' possession of mobility tools (e.g. driver's license, car access, transit pass), their current transport behavior and the availability of services respectively -
PublicationMarket potential of catenary hybrid electric trucks in different world regions( 2019)Kluschke, PhilippCatenary hybrid electric vehicles (CHV) are one solution for a decarbonization of heavy-duty transport. To this point, research focuses on Germany and Sweden while other regions with large amounts of trucks are neglected. In this paper, the economic market potential of CHV in Europe, the US, China and India are analyzed. We find high market shares for CHVs with diesel engine for large parts of the considered markets.
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PublicationEtude sur les opportunites et priorites du "Power-to-X" au Maroc( 2019)
;Haendel, Michael -
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PublicationWhat drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles?( 2017)
;Stephens, Thomas S. ;Lin, Zhenhong ;Liu, ChangzhengBrokate, JensMarket diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is an often-addressed research topic, yet PEV market diffusion models differ in approaches, factors included and results. Here, we compare 40 market diffusion models for PEVs in scope, approach and findings to point out similarities or differences and make recommendations vor futue research in this area. We find that important input factors for the US are purchase price and operating cost, while for Germany energy prices and charging infrastructure are mentioned more often. Furthermore, larger sales shares of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles than battery electric vehicles are often found in the short term results while the picture is not so clear for the medium- to long-term. Future models should include specific PEV features like limited range of battery electric vehicles or access to charging infrastructure which are currently not covered by many models. Also, the integration of current policy regulations and, if possible, indirect policy incentives would enhance research in this field.