Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    Future regional distribution of electric vehicles in Germany
    ( 2020)
    Speth, Daniel orcid-logo
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    Gnann, Till orcid-logo
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    Plötz, Patrick orcid-logo
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    Wietschel, Martin
    ;
    George, Jan F. orcid-logo
    Electrification as an option to decarbonize road transport leads to an increasing number of electric vehicles in Germany. However, the stock of electric vehicles is not evenly distributed regionally. The local distribution of electric vehicles is particularly important from an energy system perspective in order to be able to estimate future grid loads. Here, we use multiple linear regression to distribute a German-wide market diffusion of electric vehicles to 401 NUTS3-areas in Germany. Current regional vehicle stocks and regional development data (e.g. population, income, and spatial structure) are used as independent variables. We combine these variables with forecasts for spatial development and obtain a regionalized electric vehicle market diffusion for Germany. First results suggest a concentration of BEV and PHEV stocks in southwestern Germany and in large cities in the medium-term future.
  • Publication
    Do plug-in electric vehicles cause a change in travel behavior?
    ( 2017)
    Heilig, Michael
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    Gnann, Till orcid-logo
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    Plötz, Patrick orcid-logo
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    Mallig, Nicolai
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    Briem, Lars
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    Kagerbauer, Martin
    ;
    Vortisch, Peter
    The market diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) depends, besides many other factors, on how suitable these cars are for people's every day travel behavior. We combine the outcome of two model based approaches to derive how people's travel behavior might change if they use PEVs. The first model ALADIN determines the PEV owners, who are integrated within the second model, the microscopic travel demand simulation mobiTopp, in order to analyze the changes in travel behavior. The results show that PEVs in today's configuration are in many cases not suitable for daily mobility patterns and the mode has to be changed for some trips instead.