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Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
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PublicationHow to integrate real-world user behavior into models for the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars - an in-depth comparison of three models for Germany( 2021)
;Märtz, Alexandra ;Fichtner, Wolf ;Ruppert, ManuelSeddig, Katrin -
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PublicationWhat drives the usage of shared transport services?( 2020)
;Göddeke, DanielShared mobility is widely discussed, yet only few travelers actually make use of shared services. Apart from personal characteristics, the supply and more specific the supply density of shared vehicles is assumed to be crucial for a widespread shared mobility usage. In this paper, we test this hypothesis. Moreover we provide insights into the impact of current mobility behavior on the usage intention for shared transport services. For this purpose, we combine existing transport usage data with the real supply of shared vehicles in selected cities in Germany. We investigate free-floating and station-based car- and bikesharing, free-floating e-scootersharing, as well as ridesharing. To do so, we collected data on the vehicles supplied per service for beginning of 2020. In a first step, we analyze group differences in terms of intended usage between people living in cities where the services are offered and those who live in cities without access to such services. This information is used in a second step when we analyze to what extent the supply density is driving usage intention for a specific trip purpose obtained from the first analysis step. Therefore, we apply logistic regression analyses that focus on socio-demographics, the users' possession of mobility tools (e.g. driver's license, car access, transit pass), their current transport behavior and the availability of services respectively -
PublicationFuture regional distribution of electric vehicles in Germany( 2020)Electrification as an option to decarbonize road transport leads to an increasing number of electric vehicles in Germany. However, the stock of electric vehicles is not evenly distributed regionally. The local distribution of electric vehicles is particularly important from an energy system perspective in order to be able to estimate future grid loads. Here, we use multiple linear regression to distribute a German-wide market diffusion of electric vehicles to 401 NUTS3-areas in Germany. Current regional vehicle stocks and regional development data (e.g. population, income, and spatial structure) are used as independent variables. We combine these variables with forecasts for spatial development and obtain a regionalized electric vehicle market diffusion for Germany. First results suggest a concentration of BEV and PHEV stocks in southwestern Germany and in large cities in the medium-term future.
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PublicationEtude sur les opportunites et priorites du "Power-to-X" au Maroc( 2019)
;Haendel, Michael -
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PublicationMarket potential of catenary hybrid electric trucks in different world regions( 2019)Kluschke, PhilippCatenary hybrid electric vehicles (CHV) are one solution for a decarbonization of heavy-duty transport. To this point, research focuses on Germany and Sweden while other regions with large amounts of trucks are neglected. In this paper, the economic market potential of CHV in Europe, the US, China and India are analyzed. We find high market shares for CHVs with diesel engine for large parts of the considered markets.
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PublicationHow much charging infrastructure is needed and how does it affect the load shift potential of electric vehicles?( 2017)
;Michaelis, JuliaPlug-in electric vehicles are the currently favoured option to decarbonize the passenger car sector. However, a decarbonisation is only possible with electricity from renewable energies and plug-in electric vehicles might cause peak loads if they started to charge at the same time. Both these issues could be solved with coordinated load shifting (demand response). Previous studies analysed this research question by focusing on private vehicles with domestic and work charging infrastructure. This study additionally includes the important early adopter group of commercial fleet vehicles and reflects the impact of domestic, commercial, work and public charging. For this purpose, two models are combined that capture the market diffusion of electric vehicles and their charging behaviour (ALADIN) as well as the load shifting potential of several new energy technologies (eLOAD). In a comparison of three different scenarios, we find that charging of commercial vehicles does not inflict evening load peaks in the same magnitude as purely domestic charging of private cars does. Also for private cars, charging at work occurs during the day and may reduce the necessity of load shifting while public charging plays a less important role in total charging demand as well as load shifting potential. Nonetheless, demand response reduces the system load by about 2.2 GW or 2.8% when domestic and work charging are considered compared to a scenario with only domestic charging where a new peak might be created in the winter hours due to load shifting into the night.
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