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PublicationFactors affecting the calculation of wind power potentials: A case study of China( 2021)
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PublicationHow can the renewables targets be reached cost-effectively? Policy options for the development of renewables and the transmission grid( 2018)Increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the electricity sector (RES-E) contributes to achieving the European energy and climate targets including a 27% share of renewables in final energy consumption by 2030. We assess the future costs of the power sector for different RES-target levels and support schemes including generation costs, system operation costs and transmission grid development costs based on three power sector models. The results show similar power system costs for different target levels. RES-E shares below 70% involve limited infrastructure costs that are below 2.6% of the overall system costs. The impacts of the modelled RES-E policies, an EU quota and national feed-in premiums on transmission costs are ambiguous: Contrary to expectations, the costs of transmission network development under quota obligations are lower than under technology-specific feed-in premiums for RES-E penetration levels up to 50%. The drivers of transmission costs include not only a concentration of renewable capacity, but also the exact location of RES-E capacity with respect to existing power plants and the strength of the existing infrastructure. Quota obligations lead to higher grid costs than feed-in premiums if the RES-E share amounts to 70% due to the stronger regional concentration of RES power plants.
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PublicationEffects of policies on patenting in wind-power technologies( 2017)
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PublicationChallenges and appropriate policy portfolios for (almost) mature renewable electricity technologies( 2017)This paper assesses challenges arising for renewable energy technologies that have achieved a certain maturity level in terms of technology development, costs and market penetration. We identify these challenges, which diverge from challenges for less mature technologies and, based on three case studies, we analyse how some of the challenges have materialised and have been dealt with in practice. Case studies include experiences with the occurrence of negative prices in Germany, the question of how to deal with a market situation characterised by overcapacity in Spain and the problem of social opposition towards the construction of renewable power plants in the UK. Finally, we suggest solutions to deal with these issues in order to ensure the 2030 target is achieved, taking into account the changing framework conditions.
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PublicationBeyond the day-ahead market - effects of revenue maximisation of the marketing of renewables on electricity markets( 2017)The proportion of renewable energy has rapidly increased in many countries during the last few years. Due to the specific characteristics of variable renewables, this development influences the price on electricity markets as well as flexibility requirements in the electricity system. New developments regarding market liberalisation and support schemes for renewables encourage the active participation of renewables in the electricity market. This paper analyses the effects of such a participation of renewables in different electricity market segments. In particular, we investigate how the active marketing of renewables on the day-ahead, intra-day, balancing and futures markets dampen their effects on markets and systems. Using German data for 2013, we determine the effect of direct marketing on average market price levels and price volatility, the possible contribution of renewables to balancing, the profitability of flexible generation from biomass, and the additional revenues that renewables can generate from participating in different markets. Price effects of shifting renewables between markets, and limits in intra-day market liquidity are included in the assessment.
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PublicationA composite indicator for short-term diffusion forecasts of renewable energy technologies - the case of Germany( 2016)This paper investigates the impact of energy policy and the regulatory environment on the deployment of technologies based on renewable energy sources in Germany and presents a model to forecast future renewable energy technology diffusion. Our concept is based on the development of a composite indicator for renewable energy diffusion with a focus on wind energy (onshore) and photovoltaic. The approach has three major components: in-depth, semi-structured interviews with renewable energy developers and energy sector stakeholders to identify the major drivers and barriers (determinants) for renewable energy diffusion in the case study country; an EU-wide, questionnaire-based survey to understand the relevance (weights) of the individual determinants; and an analysis of past renewable energy diffusion patterns resulting in the deduction of a model for short-term renewable energy technology diffusion forecasts. Results demonstrate the substantial impact of economic and non-economic framework conditions on the diffusion of photovoltaic and wind energy in Germany. Furthermore, the use of composite indicators for renewable energy technology diffusion analyses proves to be a promising approach.
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PublicationImpact of renewables on electricity markets - do support schemes matter?( 2016)Rising renewable shares influence electricity markets in several ways: among others, average market prices are reduced and price volatility increases. Therefore, the "missing money problem" in energy-only electricity markets is more likely to occur in systems with high renewable shares. Nevertheless, renewables are supported in many countries due to their expected benefits. The kind of support instrument can however influence the degree to which renewables influence the market. While fixed feed-in tariffs lead to higher market impacts, more market-oriented support schemes such as market premiums, quota systems and capacity-based payments decrease the extent to which markets are affected. This paper analyzes the market impacts of different support schemes. For this purpose, a new module is added to an existing bottom-up simulation model of the electricity market. In addition, different degrees of flexibility in the electricity system are considered. A case study for Germany is used to derive policy recommendations regarding the choice of support scheme.
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PublicationRenewable energy deployment in Europe up to 2030 and the aim of a triple dividend( 2016)
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PublicationThe market value of renewable electricity - which factors really matter?( 2016)The development of renewable energy technologies, their future market integration, and support scheme design depends crucially on the market value of electricity from renewable sources. The literature shows that there are many factors that potentially influence these market values. However, existing studies are limited in mostly just analyzing the influence of these factors individually or at most the combined effects of only two factors. In this study, a large number of scenarios for possible future electricity systems and the resulting market values are calculated. Results are assessed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis to identify the most important factors influencing market values. Therefore, we are able to quantitatively analyze the individual impacts of a complex combination of flexibility options, which can facilitate more informed strategies by policy markers, regulators, and market participants regarding system flexibility options. We show here that the development of CO2 and gas prices, as well as the conventional capacity mix is crucial for the development of renewable electricity market values. System flexibility including must-run requirements, heat grids and electric mobility become relevant at higher technology-specific market shares for both photovoltaics and onshore wind. Storage only influences photovoltaics market values even though assumed storage capacities and volume are high.
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PublicationMarket integration of renewable electricity generation - the german market premium model( 2013)
