Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 13
  • Publication
    Do almost mature renewable energy technologies still need dedicated support towards 2030?
    ( 2019)
    Held, Anne
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Rio, Pablo del
    ;
    Resch, Gustav
    ;
    Klessmann, Corinna
    ;
    Hassel, Arndt
    ;
    Elkerbout, Milan
    ;
    Rawlins, James
    The discussion on whether and how to continue support for almost mature renewable electricity (RES-E) technologies, such as onshore wind and PV, has recently intensified. In this paper we analyze arguments in the literature in favor and against the phase-out of renewables support in the context of increasingly competitive RES-E technologies. We conclude that there are good reasons to continue dedicated RES-E policies beyond 2020 for those technologies. Dedicated RES-E support can provide a predictable, secure investment framework that lowers the risk premiums required by investors and therefore reduces the capital costs of RES-E. In addition, there are still significant cost reduction potentials for these technologies. The increased use of renewables has multiple socio-economic benefits in addition to climate change mitigation. These arguments are still valid when looking at the current market situation characterized by oversupply and low prices on both the CO2 market and some power markets in Europe. Since renewables are not the main reason for the current oversupply, it would not be effective to take actions towards restoring market equilibrium in the form of radical or overall phase-out of RES-E support.
  • Publication
    A composite indicator for short-term diffusion forecasts of renewable energy technologies - the case of Germany
    ( 2016)
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Held, Anne
    This paper investigates the impact of energy policy and the regulatory environment on the deployment of technologies based on renewable energy sources in Germany and presents a model to forecast future renewable energy technology diffusion. Our concept is based on the development of a composite indicator for renewable energy diffusion with a focus on wind energy (onshore) and photovoltaic. The approach has three major components: in-depth, semi-structured interviews with renewable energy developers and energy sector stakeholders to identify the major drivers and barriers (determinants) for renewable energy diffusion in the case study country; an EU-wide, questionnaire-based survey to understand the relevance (weights) of the individual determinants; and an analysis of past renewable energy diffusion patterns resulting in the deduction of a model for short-term renewable energy technology diffusion forecasts. Results demonstrate the substantial impact of economic and non-economic framework conditions on the diffusion of photovoltaic and wind energy in Germany. Furthermore, the use of composite indicators for renewable energy technology diffusion analyses proves to be a promising approach.
  • Publication
    Opportunities and challenges of high renewable energy deployment and electricity exchange for North Africa and Europe - scenarios for power sector and transmission infrastructure in 2030 and 2050
    ( 2016)
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Kost, Christoph
    ;
    Bohn, Sven
    ;
    Agsten, Michael
    ;
    Bretschneider, Peter
    ;
    Snigovyi, Oleksandr
    ;
    Pudlik, Martin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Schlegl, Thomas
    ;
    Westermann, Dirk
    Climate change and limited availability of fossil fuel reserves stress both the importance of deploying renewable energy sources (RES) for electricity generation and the need for a stronger integration of regional electricity markets. This analysis focuses on North African (NA) countries, which possess vast resources of renewable energy but whose electricity supply is still largely dependent on fossil fuels. An analysis of cost-optimized deployment scenarios for RES is conducted in five NA countries in 2030 and 2050. Three electricity models are combined to derive results covering trans-regional to sub-national level, including a detailed analysis of grid capacities and future transmission challenges. Further, opportunities for integration of European and NA electricity markets are evaluated. Results confirm that, by 2050, high RES shares - close to 100% - are possible in NA. Wind energy is the dominant technology. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants also play an important role with rising RES shares due to the possibility to store thermal energy. Electricity exports to Europe gain particular importance in the period after 2030. Substantial transmission grid reinforcements on AC-level and the construction of a high voltage DC overlay grid are prerequisites for the forecasted scenarios.
  • Publication
    A pan-European-North African HVDC grid for bulk energy transmission - a model-based analysis
    ( 2014)
    Bohn, Sven
    ;
    Agsten, Michael
    ;
    Marten, Anne-Katrin
    ;
    Westermann, Dirk
    ;
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    The usage of renewable energy is gaining importance due to national and international targets for reduction of CO2 emissions and consumption of fossil fuels and respective renewable energy deployment goals. Due to the volatile nature of renewable energy and regional potentials for generation in remote areas, there is a need for a better integration of generation and load centers in a common transmission infrastructure. This can be done by establishing a meshed HVDC overlay grid for bulk electricity transmission over long distances. Therefore, this paper describes the outlook for renewable energy deployment by 2050 in the North African region, as well as the potential to export renewable energy to Europe. It analyses the existing AC transmission grid infrastructure and explains why a meshed pan-European-North African HVDC overlay grid will solve the transmission requirements for the target year 2050.
  • Publication
    Scenarios for renewable energy deployment in North African countries and electricity exchange with Europe - a model-based analysis for 2050
    ( 2014)
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Pudlik, Martin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Sensfuss, F.
    ;
    Bohn, Sven
    ;
    Agsten, Michael
    ;
    Bretschneider, Peter
    ;
    Westermann, Dirk
    Deployment of renewable energy technologies in North Africa has large potentials for both, the coverage of the growing local electricity demand and for export of electricity to neighboring regions such as Europe. The presented research analyzes four scenarios with high shares of renewable energies in electricity generation (regional average 83-98%) in five North African countries and evaluates the opportunities and technical challenges for exchange of electricity within the region and with Europe. It was found that extensive grid reinforcements would be required to realize the presented scenarios. With respect to inner-regional transmission capacities in North Africa, results show that, depending on the scenario, about 90 % of the present grid would have to be expanded substantially in order to handle the expected transmission volumes in 2050.
  • Publication
    Efficiency and effectiveness of promotion systems for electricity generation from renewable energy sources - lessons from EU countries
    ( 2011)
    Haas, R.
    ;
    Resch, G.
    ;
    Panzer, C.
    ;
    Busch, S.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Held, A.
    Currently, a wide range of strategies is implemented in different countries to increase the share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E). A still controversial discussion is whether quantity-driven (like Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs) based on quotas) or price-driven (like feed-in-tariffs (FIT)) instruments lead to preferable solutions for society. The core objective of this paper is to compare the perspectives of quota-based certificate trading systems for an efficient and effective increase of RES-E with FIT. The major results of this analysis are: (i) The success stories of growth in RES-E in EU member states in recent years has been triggered by FIT implemented in a technology-specific manner at modest costs for European citizens; (ii) At present, TGC systems in most countries applied show a low effectiveness with respect to RES-E deployment of less mature technologies such as solar PV (with improving tendencies in e.g. the UK or Italy with respect to certain technologies); (iii) Compared to short term trading in TGC markets the intrinsic stability of FIT systems appears to be a key element for success; (iv) Hence, currently a well-designed (dynamic) FIT system provides a certain deployment of RES-E in the shortest time and at lowest costs for society.
  • Publication
    Design options for cooperation mechanisms under the new European renewable energy directive
    ( 2010)
    Kleßmann, C.
    ;
    Lamers, P.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Resch, G.
    In June 2009, a new EU directive on the promotion of renewable energy sources (RES) entered into effect. The directive 2009/28/EC, provides for three cooperation mechanisms that will allow member states to achieve their national RES target in cooperation with other member states: statistical transfer, joint projects, and joint support schemes. This article analyses the pros and cons of the three mechanisms and explores design options for their implementation through strategic and economic questions: How to counterbalance the major drawbacks of each mechanism? How to reflect a balance of costs and benefits between the involved member states? The analysis identifies a number of design options that respond to these questions, e.g. long term contracts to ensure sufficient flexibility for statistical transfers, a coordinated, standardised joint project approach to increase transparency in the European market, and a stepwise harmonisation of joint support schemes that is based on a cost-effective accounting approach. One conclusion is that the three cooperation mechanisms are closely interlinked. One can consider their relation to be a gradual transition from member state cooperation under fully closed national support systems in case of statistical transfers, to cooperation under fully open national support systems in a joint support scheme.
  • Publication
    Regulatory instruments to deliver the full potential of renewable energy sources of efficiently
    ( 2009)
    Auer, H.
    ;
    Resch, G.
    ;
    Haas, R.
    ;
    Held, A.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    Increasing the share of renewable energy sources for electricity generation (RES-E) has a high priority in the energy strategies of the European Commission. Yet, from a pure monetary point-of-view most RES-E technologies are currently not cost-effective. Hence, if RES-E are considered to provide significant benefits for society regulatory interferences are justified. This paper analyses which regulatory issues are of major relevance with respect to the promotion and the grid integration of RES-E. Of core relevance are currently two major issues: implementation of proper regulatory financial support systems and implementation of a clear regulatory framework for cost allocation policies to integrate RES-E technically into electricity grids. The major conclusions of this analysis are: (i) with respect to the design of regulatory promotional strategies currently a well-designed (dynamic) feed-in tariff system ensures the fastest deployment of RES-E power plants at the lowest cost for electricity customers; (ii) with respect to grid integration of RES-E a (super-)shallow RES-E integration approach is clearly preferable to deep integration.
  • Publication
    The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany
    ( 2008)
    Sensfuss, F.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Genoese, M.
    The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers.
  • Publication
    OPTRES. Assessment and optimisation of renewable energy support schemes in the European electricity market
    (Fraunhofer IRB Verlag, 2007)
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Held, A.
    ;
    et al.
    This book was written in the frame of the OPTRES project, which was supported by the European Commission within the framework of the Intelligent Energy for Europe programme. The consortium, consisting of six European partners, analysed the effectiveness as well as the economic efficiency of currently implemented support schemes for renew-able energies in the electricity sector (RES-E) in the enlarged European Union. The analysis gives recommendations for future improvements of the existing RES-E promotion measures. Furthermore the consortium carried out an extensive stakeholder consultation, focussing on the identification of existing market barriers to the development of renewable electricity in the EU. The effectiveness and efficiency of current and future RES-E support schemes were analysed with particular focus on a single European market for renewable electricity products. Current best practices were identified and an assessment made of the (future) costs of RES-E and the relevant support necessary to initiate stable growth. The main barriers to a higher RES-E deployment as perceived by market actors and stakeholders were assessed.