Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    A composite indicator for short-term diffusion forecasts of renewable energy technologies - the case of Germany
    ( 2016)
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Held, Anne
    This paper investigates the impact of energy policy and the regulatory environment on the deployment of technologies based on renewable energy sources in Germany and presents a model to forecast future renewable energy technology diffusion. Our concept is based on the development of a composite indicator for renewable energy diffusion with a focus on wind energy (onshore) and photovoltaic. The approach has three major components: in-depth, semi-structured interviews with renewable energy developers and energy sector stakeholders to identify the major drivers and barriers (determinants) for renewable energy diffusion in the case study country; an EU-wide, questionnaire-based survey to understand the relevance (weights) of the individual determinants; and an analysis of past renewable energy diffusion patterns resulting in the deduction of a model for short-term renewable energy technology diffusion forecasts. Results demonstrate the substantial impact of economic and non-economic framework conditions on the diffusion of photovoltaic and wind energy in Germany. Furthermore, the use of composite indicators for renewable energy technology diffusion analyses proves to be a promising approach.
  • Publication
    Efficiency and effectiveness of promotion systems for electricity generation from renewable energy sources - lessons from EU countries
    ( 2011)
    Haas, R.
    ;
    Resch, G.
    ;
    Panzer, C.
    ;
    Busch, S.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Held, A.
    Currently, a wide range of strategies is implemented in different countries to increase the share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E). A still controversial discussion is whether quantity-driven (like Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs) based on quotas) or price-driven (like feed-in-tariffs (FIT)) instruments lead to preferable solutions for society. The core objective of this paper is to compare the perspectives of quota-based certificate trading systems for an efficient and effective increase of RES-E with FIT. The major results of this analysis are: (i) The success stories of growth in RES-E in EU member states in recent years has been triggered by FIT implemented in a technology-specific manner at modest costs for European citizens; (ii) At present, TGC systems in most countries applied show a low effectiveness with respect to RES-E deployment of less mature technologies such as solar PV (with improving tendencies in e.g. the UK or Italy with respect to certain technologies); (iii) Compared to short term trading in TGC markets the intrinsic stability of FIT systems appears to be a key element for success; (iv) Hence, currently a well-designed (dynamic) FIT system provides a certain deployment of RES-E in the shortest time and at lowest costs for society.
  • Publication
    Design options for cooperation mechanisms under the new European renewable energy directive
    ( 2010)
    Kleßmann, C.
    ;
    Lamers, P.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Resch, G.
    In June 2009, a new EU directive on the promotion of renewable energy sources (RES) entered into effect. The directive 2009/28/EC, provides for three cooperation mechanisms that will allow member states to achieve their national RES target in cooperation with other member states: statistical transfer, joint projects, and joint support schemes. This article analyses the pros and cons of the three mechanisms and explores design options for their implementation through strategic and economic questions: How to counterbalance the major drawbacks of each mechanism? How to reflect a balance of costs and benefits between the involved member states? The analysis identifies a number of design options that respond to these questions, e.g. long term contracts to ensure sufficient flexibility for statistical transfers, a coordinated, standardised joint project approach to increase transparency in the European market, and a stepwise harmonisation of joint support schemes that is based on a cost-effective accounting approach. One conclusion is that the three cooperation mechanisms are closely interlinked. One can consider their relation to be a gradual transition from member state cooperation under fully closed national support systems in case of statistical transfers, to cooperation under fully open national support systems in a joint support scheme.
  • Publication
    The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany
    ( 2008)
    Sensfuss, F.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Genoese, M.
    The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers.