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PublicationKrieg in der Ukraine: Auswirkungen auf die europäische und deutsche Importstrategie von Wasserstoff und Syntheseprodukten. Impulspapier(Fraunhofer ISI, 2022)
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PublicationFactors affecting the calculation of wind power potentials: A case study of China( 2021)
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PublicationDo almost mature renewable energy technologies still need dedicated support towards 2030?( 2019)The discussion on whether and how to continue support for almost mature renewable electricity (RES-E) technologies, such as onshore wind and PV, has recently intensified. In this paper we analyze arguments in the literature in favor and against the phase-out of renewables support in the context of increasingly competitive RES-E technologies. We conclude that there are good reasons to continue dedicated RES-E policies beyond 2020 for those technologies. Dedicated RES-E support can provide a predictable, secure investment framework that lowers the risk premiums required by investors and therefore reduces the capital costs of RES-E. In addition, there are still significant cost reduction potentials for these technologies. The increased use of renewables has multiple socio-economic benefits in addition to climate change mitigation. These arguments are still valid when looking at the current market situation characterized by oversupply and low prices on both the CO2 market and some power markets in Europe. Since renewables are not the main reason for the current oversupply, it would not be effective to take actions towards restoring market equilibrium in the form of radical or overall phase-out of RES-E support.
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PublicationAssessment of policy pathways for reaching the EU target of (at least) 27% renewable energies by 2030( 2019)As an important first step in defining the framework for renewable energies (RE) within the European Union post 2020, a binding EU-wide target to achieve a renewables share of at least 27% of gross final energy demand by 2030 was adopted by the European Council and Parliament in October 2014. On 30 November 2016, the next step was taken: The European Commission published a package of proposed legislative measures for the time horizon from 2020 to 2030 called ""Clean Energy for all Europeans"", commonly referred to as the ""Winter Package"". It is aimed at facilitating the clean energy transition while developing the internal market for electricity, thus fostering the Energy Union. Within the scope of the Intelligent Energy Europe project ""towards2030-dialogue"" we have facilitated and guided the RE policy dialogue for the period up to 2030 over the past number of years. The dialogue process was coupled with in-depth and continuous analysis of relevant topics that included renewable energies in all energy sectors, but with more detailed analyses for renewable electricity. The analytical works included, for example, a first critical reflection on the Winter Package as well as a model-based analysis of distinct renewable electricity policy pathways up to 2030, including options for coordinating and aligning national support schemes as well as the clustering of regional support schemes. This chapter describes the approach taken and presents some of our key results together with recommendations on the way forward.
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PublicationOpportunities and challenges of high renewable energy deployment and electricity exchange for North Africa and Europe - scenarios for power sector and transmission infrastructure in 2030 and 2050( 2016)Climate change and limited availability of fossil fuel reserves stress both the importance of deploying renewable energy sources (RES) for electricity generation and the need for a stronger integration of regional electricity markets. This analysis focuses on North African (NA) countries, which possess vast resources of renewable energy but whose electricity supply is still largely dependent on fossil fuels. An analysis of cost-optimized deployment scenarios for RES is conducted in five NA countries in 2030 and 2050. Three electricity models are combined to derive results covering trans-regional to sub-national level, including a detailed analysis of grid capacities and future transmission challenges. Further, opportunities for integration of European and NA electricity markets are evaluated. Results confirm that, by 2050, high RES shares - close to 100% - are possible in NA. Wind energy is the dominant technology. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants also play an important role with rising RES shares due to the possibility to store thermal energy. Electricity exports to Europe gain particular importance in the period after 2030. Substantial transmission grid reinforcements on AC-level and the construction of a high voltage DC overlay grid are prerequisites for the forecasted scenarios.
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PublicationA pan-European-North African HVDC grid for bulk energy transmission - a model-based analysis( 2014)The usage of renewable energy is gaining importance due to national and international targets for reduction of CO2 emissions and consumption of fossil fuels and respective renewable energy deployment goals. Due to the volatile nature of renewable energy and regional potentials for generation in remote areas, there is a need for a better integration of generation and load centers in a common transmission infrastructure. This can be done by establishing a meshed HVDC overlay grid for bulk electricity transmission over long distances. Therefore, this paper describes the outlook for renewable energy deployment by 2050 in the North African region, as well as the potential to export renewable energy to Europe. It analyses the existing AC transmission grid infrastructure and explains why a meshed pan-European-North African HVDC overlay grid will solve the transmission requirements for the target year 2050.
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PublicationNutzenwirkung der Marktprämie(Fraunhofer ISI, 2013)
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PublicationPolicy options for reducing the costs of reaching the European renewables target( 2013)European governments have agreed to increase the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption to 20% by 2020. A crucial question for policy makers is how to mobilise the additional capital investments in RE and which consumer expenditures are involved. The article describes policy options for reducing renewable energy technology (RET) project costs as well as consumer costs, based on research conducted in de Jager et al., 2011 and Rathmann et al., 2011. The results show that risk-sensitive RET policies are crucial for attracting sufficient RET investments until 2020 and achieving the targets cost-effectively. They not only reduce the RET financing costs, but also the project development costs and market gap. There are also other options that can significantly reduce the RET support costs, i.e. the adjustment of support levels to generation costs, phasing out subsidies for conventional energies, and the cost-optimisation of the supported RET portfolio, either th rough increased cooperation between member states or through changes in the supported technology mix. Overall, further improvement and coordination of existing policy frameworks seems more promising than drastic system changes, as the latter would create additional uncertainties and potentially negative effects on RET growth and project costs.
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PublicationStatus and perspectives of renewable energy policy and deployment in the European Union - What is needed to reach the 2020 targets?( 2011)This article evaluates the status of current RES deployment, policies and barriers in the EU-27 member states and compares it to the required to meet the 2020 targets. The evaluation relies strongly on the quantitative deployment status and policy effectiveness indicators. European RES deployment and policy has progressed strongly in recent years, but the growth here has been mainly driven by effective policies in a small or medium number of top runner countries. Across Europe, the highest average policy effectiveness over six years was reached for onshore wind (4.2%), biofuels (3.6%) and biomass electricity (2.7%), while in the heat sector, all technologies score below 2%. Comparing the recent progress to the required growth for meeting the 2020 target, it appears that some countries largely exceed the interim targets of the RES Directive 2009/28/EC. Despite this, Europe will need additional policy effort to reach the 2020 target. Critical success factors include imple menting effective and efficient policies that attract sufficient investments, reducing administrative and grid related barriers, especially in currently less advanced countries, upgrading the power grid infrastructure, dismantling financial barriers in the heat sector, realising sustainability standards for biomass, and lowering energy demand through increased energy efficiency efforts.
