Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Perception of district heating in Europe: A deep dive into influencing factors and the role of regulation

2024 , Billerbeck, Anna , Breitschopf, Barbara , Preuß, Sabine , Winkler, Jenny , Ragwitz, Mario , Keles, Dogan

To increase the deployment of district heating in line with European targets, there is a need to understand consumer perceptions and the role of regulations. Therefore, this paper focuses on consumer perceptions of district heating and analyses the influencing factors. The analysis uses data from an online survey with 4388 participants from nine European countries. In particular, the paper discusses the impact of socio-demographic factors, attitudes and regulations on the perception of district heating. Statistical analyses show that respondents from Denmark and Sweden have the most positive perception, while respondents from Lithuania and the Netherlands have a less positive perception of district heating. In addition, the results indicate that respondents from countries with no mandatory connection, liberalised price regulation and mainly public ownership seem to have a more positive perception of district heating, higher satisfaction when using district heating and a more positive rating of their heating price than those from countries with mandatory connection, regulated prices and a more mixed ownership structure. Overall, the paper provides a first overview of possible factors influencing the perception of district heating and indicates that the mix of appropriate regulations and, in particular, their combined impact, could play an important role in perception.

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The race between hydrogen and heat pumps for space and water heating: A model-based scenario analysis

2024 , Billerbeck, Anna , Kiefer, Christoph P. , Winkler, Jenny , Bernath, Christiane , Sensfuß, Frank , Kranzl, Lukas , Müller, Andreas , Ragwitz, Mario

This paper analyses different levels and means of the electrification of space and hot water heating using an explorative modelling approach. The analysis provides guidance to the ongoing discussion on favourable pathways for heating buildings and the role of secondary energy carriers such as hydrogen or synthetic fuels. In total, 12 different scenarios were modelled with decarbonisation pathways until 2050, which cover all 27 member states of the European Union. Two highly detailed optimisation models were combined to cover the building stock and the upstream energy supply sector. The analysis shows that decarbonisation pathways for space and water heating based on large shares of heat pumps have at least 11% lower system costs in 2050 than pathways with large shares of hydrogen or synthetic fuels. This translates into system cost savings of around €70 bn. Heat pumps are cost-efficient in decentralised systems and in centralised district heating systems. Hence, heat pumps should be the favoured option to achieve a cost-optimal solution for heating buildings. Accordingly, the paper makes a novel and significant contribution to understanding suitable and cost-efficient decarbonisation pathways for space and hot water heating via electrification. The results of the paper can provide robust guidance for policymakers.

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Policy frameworks for district heating: A comprehensive overview and analysis of regulations and support measures across Europe

2023 , Billerbeck, Anna , Breitschopf, Barbara , Winkler, Jenny , Bürger, Veit , Köhler, Benjamin , Bacquet, Alexandre , Popovski, Eftim , Fallahnejad, Mostafa , Kranzl, Lukas , Ragwitz, Mario

This paper presents an overview of policy frameworks for district heating (DH) in Europe. We develop a classification for policy aspects addressing DH, comprising regulation of ownership, prices, metering, consumer grid connection, third party access as well as support schemes and carbon taxes. This classification builds on existing literature and expert assessments collected in an online survey and interviews. The relevance of the paper lies in giving a comprehensive picture of the existing policy frameworks for DH in 23 European countries. For the overview, the countries are clustered along assigned categories. It is shown that the policy frameworks for DH can be clustered into five distinguishable groups. While some countries apply very strict regulations in special DH laws, others rely on less regulatory intervention, both with varying degrees of support for DH in place. The different policy frameworks are discussed in the context of the diffusion of DH and the integration of renewable and waste heat in DH. This analysis shows that high shares of DH and high shares of renewable and waste heat in DH can be observed in countries with a high degree of regulation as well as in countries with less regulatory intervention in DH markets.

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