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PublicationFactors affecting the calculation of wind power potentials: A case study of China( 2021)
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PublicationDo almost mature renewable energy technologies still need dedicated support towards 2030?( 2019)The discussion on whether and how to continue support for almost mature renewable electricity (RES-E) technologies, such as onshore wind and PV, has recently intensified. In this paper we analyze arguments in the literature in favor and against the phase-out of renewables support in the context of increasingly competitive RES-E technologies. We conclude that there are good reasons to continue dedicated RES-E policies beyond 2020 for those technologies. Dedicated RES-E support can provide a predictable, secure investment framework that lowers the risk premiums required by investors and therefore reduces the capital costs of RES-E. In addition, there are still significant cost reduction potentials for these technologies. The increased use of renewables has multiple socio-economic benefits in addition to climate change mitigation. These arguments are still valid when looking at the current market situation characterized by oversupply and low prices on both the CO2 market and some power markets in Europe. Since renewables are not the main reason for the current oversupply, it would not be effective to take actions towards restoring market equilibrium in the form of radical or overall phase-out of RES-E support.
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PublicationOpportunities and challenges of high renewable energy deployment and electricity exchange for North Africa and Europe - scenarios for power sector and transmission infrastructure in 2030 and 2050( 2016)Climate change and limited availability of fossil fuel reserves stress both the importance of deploying renewable energy sources (RES) for electricity generation and the need for a stronger integration of regional electricity markets. This analysis focuses on North African (NA) countries, which possess vast resources of renewable energy but whose electricity supply is still largely dependent on fossil fuels. An analysis of cost-optimized deployment scenarios for RES is conducted in five NA countries in 2030 and 2050. Three electricity models are combined to derive results covering trans-regional to sub-national level, including a detailed analysis of grid capacities and future transmission challenges. Further, opportunities for integration of European and NA electricity markets are evaluated. Results confirm that, by 2050, high RES shares - close to 100% - are possible in NA. Wind energy is the dominant technology. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants also play an important role with rising RES shares due to the possibility to store thermal energy. Electricity exports to Europe gain particular importance in the period after 2030. Substantial transmission grid reinforcements on AC-level and the construction of a high voltage DC overlay grid are prerequisites for the forecasted scenarios.
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PublicationDeterminants for the diffusion of renewable energy technologies - framework for assessing major factors in investors' decision-making processes( 2015)Broad deployment of renewable energy (RE) technologies is a primary objective of the European climate strategy. All European member states developed policy strategies and financial support mechanisms for renewable electricity. However, apart from the remuneration scheme, non-economic and regulatory factors influence market diffusion of RE-technologies. Diffusion results from decisions of individual actors and their perceptions of market attractiveness. Therefore, understanding the basic determinants governing their decisions is crucial to anticipate diffusion processes under given framework conditions and to develop policy tools pinpointing the essential factors and enabling RE-deployment cost- and time-efficiently. We propose a robust set of determinants for RE-diffusion and suggest respective data sources allowing for objective assessment of framework conditions on country level. Results are based on literature research, interviews and expert workshops. They are utilisable as input for construction of benchmarking tools (composite indicators) and energy economic modelling (diffusion models) and provide a sound basis for evaluation of RE-regulations and efficient policy design.
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PublicationEffectiveness and efficiency of support schemes for electricity from renewable energy sources( 2014)A variety of support schemes for renewable energy sources in the electricity sector (RES-E) are currently being implemented in EU member states. The main tools used for this purpose are either price-based policy instruments such as feed-in tariffs or premiums, or quantity-based instruments such as quota systems using tradable green certificates. Much work has been devoted to the motivation for and evaluation of these instruments, mostly in the form of country/local case studies, model simulations, or econometric modeling. The main drivers behind these policies are addressing the externalities of the environmentally harmful emissions of electricity generation and stimulating technological innovation. Two frequently used evaluation criteria for support schemes and instruments are their effectiveness and economic efficiency. We find that those support schemes, which are most effective in stimulating the growth of RES-E generation, are typically economically efficient as we ll. Generally, it can be concluded that support schemes, which are technology specific, and those that avoid unnecessary risks in project revenues, are more effective and efficient than technology-neutral support schemes, or schemes with higher revenue risk. The most recent quantitative assessment shows that some convergence can now be observed between schemes applying price- and quantity-based instruments. With respect to policy effectiveness, quota schemes show improvements. Regarding efficiency, the situation is still very heterogeneous, and remuneration levels in many EU member states are still substantially higher than generation costs.
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PublicationScenarios for renewable energy deployment in North African countries and electricity exchange with Europe - a model-based analysis for 2050( 2014)Deployment of renewable energy technologies in North Africa has large potentials for both, the coverage of the growing local electricity demand and for export of electricity to neighboring regions such as Europe. The presented research analyzes four scenarios with high shares of renewable energies in electricity generation (regional average 83-98%) in five North African countries and evaluates the opportunities and technical challenges for exchange of electricity within the region and with Europe. It was found that extensive grid reinforcements would be required to realize the presented scenarios. With respect to inner-regional transmission capacities in North Africa, results show that, depending on the scenario, about 90 % of the present grid would have to be expanded substantially in order to handle the expected transmission volumes in 2050.
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PublicationMarket integration of renewable electricity generation - the german market premium model( 2013)
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PublicationCoordination or harmonisation? Feasible pathways for a european res strategy beyond 2020( 2013)With Directive 2009/28/EC, the European Parliament and Council have laid the grounds for the policy framework for renewable energy sources (RES) in the European Union until 2020. The aim of this paper is to look more closely beyond 2020, well in advance, contrasting and analysing potential RES policy options that are currently being discussed. Generally the assessment includes RES in all energy sectors but a topical focus is put on renewable electricity, specifically within the discussion of policy options for a harmonisation of RES support. The results of the policy assessment indicate that cooperation and coordination among Member States appear beneficial to tackle current problems in RES markets, and fruitful for the period beyond 2020. By contrast, "simplistic approaches" to RES policy harmonisation, for example via a uniform RES certificate trading, are not suitable to ensure substantial future RES growth.
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PublicationIntroduction to the special issue: Financing instruments to promote energy efficiency and renewables in times of tight public budgets( 2013)
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PublicationPolicy options for reducing the costs of reaching the European renewables target( 2013)European governments have agreed to increase the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption to 20% by 2020. A crucial question for policy makers is how to mobilise the additional capital investments in RE and which consumer expenditures are involved. The article describes policy options for reducing renewable energy technology (RET) project costs as well as consumer costs, based on research conducted in de Jager et al., 2011 and Rathmann et al., 2011. The results show that risk-sensitive RET policies are crucial for attracting sufficient RET investments until 2020 and achieving the targets cost-effectively. They not only reduce the RET financing costs, but also the project development costs and market gap. There are also other options that can significantly reduce the RET support costs, i.e. the adjustment of support levels to generation costs, phasing out subsidies for conventional energies, and the cost-optimisation of the supported RET portfolio, either th rough increased cooperation between member states or through changes in the supported technology mix. Overall, further improvement and coordination of existing policy frameworks seems more promising than drastic system changes, as the latter would create additional uncertainties and potentially negative effects on RET growth and project costs.
