Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    Opportunities and challenges of high renewable energy deployment and electricity exchange for North Africa and Europe - scenarios for power sector and transmission infrastructure in 2030 and 2050
    ( 2016)
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Kost, Christoph
    ;
    Bohn, Sven
    ;
    Agsten, Michael
    ;
    Bretschneider, Peter
    ;
    Snigovyi, Oleksandr
    ;
    Pudlik, Martin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Schlegl, Thomas
    ;
    Westermann, Dirk
    Climate change and limited availability of fossil fuel reserves stress both the importance of deploying renewable energy sources (RES) for electricity generation and the need for a stronger integration of regional electricity markets. This analysis focuses on North African (NA) countries, which possess vast resources of renewable energy but whose electricity supply is still largely dependent on fossil fuels. An analysis of cost-optimized deployment scenarios for RES is conducted in five NA countries in 2030 and 2050. Three electricity models are combined to derive results covering trans-regional to sub-national level, including a detailed analysis of grid capacities and future transmission challenges. Further, opportunities for integration of European and NA electricity markets are evaluated. Results confirm that, by 2050, high RES shares - close to 100% - are possible in NA. Wind energy is the dominant technology. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants also play an important role with rising RES shares due to the possibility to store thermal energy. Electricity exports to Europe gain particular importance in the period after 2030. Substantial transmission grid reinforcements on AC-level and the construction of a high voltage DC overlay grid are prerequisites for the forecasted scenarios.
  • Publication
    A pan-European-North African HVDC grid for bulk energy transmission - a model-based analysis
    ( 2014)
    Bohn, Sven
    ;
    Agsten, Michael
    ;
    Marten, Anne-Katrin
    ;
    Westermann, Dirk
    ;
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    The usage of renewable energy is gaining importance due to national and international targets for reduction of CO2 emissions and consumption of fossil fuels and respective renewable energy deployment goals. Due to the volatile nature of renewable energy and regional potentials for generation in remote areas, there is a need for a better integration of generation and load centers in a common transmission infrastructure. This can be done by establishing a meshed HVDC overlay grid for bulk electricity transmission over long distances. Therefore, this paper describes the outlook for renewable energy deployment by 2050 in the North African region, as well as the potential to export renewable energy to Europe. It analyses the existing AC transmission grid infrastructure and explains why a meshed pan-European-North African HVDC overlay grid will solve the transmission requirements for the target year 2050.
  • Publication
    Scenarios for renewable energy deployment in North African countries and electricity exchange with Europe - a model-based analysis for 2050
    ( 2014)
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Pudlik, Martin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Sensfuss, F.
    ;
    Bohn, Sven
    ;
    Agsten, Michael
    ;
    Bretschneider, Peter
    ;
    Westermann, Dirk
    Deployment of renewable energy technologies in North Africa has large potentials for both, the coverage of the growing local electricity demand and for export of electricity to neighboring regions such as Europe. The presented research analyzes four scenarios with high shares of renewable energies in electricity generation (regional average 83-98%) in five North African countries and evaluates the opportunities and technical challenges for exchange of electricity within the region and with Europe. It was found that extensive grid reinforcements would be required to realize the presented scenarios. With respect to inner-regional transmission capacities in North Africa, results show that, depending on the scenario, about 90 % of the present grid would have to be expanded substantially in order to handle the expected transmission volumes in 2050.