Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    Do almost mature renewable energy technologies still need dedicated support towards 2030?
    ( 2019)
    Held, Anne
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Rio, Pablo del
    ;
    Resch, Gustav
    ;
    Klessmann, Corinna
    ;
    Hassel, Arndt
    ;
    Elkerbout, Milan
    ;
    Rawlins, James
    The discussion on whether and how to continue support for almost mature renewable electricity (RES-E) technologies, such as onshore wind and PV, has recently intensified. In this paper we analyze arguments in the literature in favor and against the phase-out of renewables support in the context of increasingly competitive RES-E technologies. We conclude that there are good reasons to continue dedicated RES-E policies beyond 2020 for those technologies. Dedicated RES-E support can provide a predictable, secure investment framework that lowers the risk premiums required by investors and therefore reduces the capital costs of RES-E. In addition, there are still significant cost reduction potentials for these technologies. The increased use of renewables has multiple socio-economic benefits in addition to climate change mitigation. These arguments are still valid when looking at the current market situation characterized by oversupply and low prices on both the CO2 market and some power markets in Europe. Since renewables are not the main reason for the current oversupply, it would not be effective to take actions towards restoring market equilibrium in the form of radical or overall phase-out of RES-E support.
  • Publication
    A composite indicator for short-term diffusion forecasts of renewable energy technologies - the case of Germany
    ( 2016)
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Held, Anne
    This paper investigates the impact of energy policy and the regulatory environment on the deployment of technologies based on renewable energy sources in Germany and presents a model to forecast future renewable energy technology diffusion. Our concept is based on the development of a composite indicator for renewable energy diffusion with a focus on wind energy (onshore) and photovoltaic. The approach has three major components: in-depth, semi-structured interviews with renewable energy developers and energy sector stakeholders to identify the major drivers and barriers (determinants) for renewable energy diffusion in the case study country; an EU-wide, questionnaire-based survey to understand the relevance (weights) of the individual determinants; and an analysis of past renewable energy diffusion patterns resulting in the deduction of a model for short-term renewable energy technology diffusion forecasts. Results demonstrate the substantial impact of economic and non-economic framework conditions on the diffusion of photovoltaic and wind energy in Germany. Furthermore, the use of composite indicators for renewable energy technology diffusion analyses proves to be a promising approach.
  • Publication
    Opportunities and challenges of high renewable energy deployment and electricity exchange for North Africa and Europe - scenarios for power sector and transmission infrastructure in 2030 and 2050
    ( 2016)
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Kost, Christoph
    ;
    Bohn, Sven
    ;
    Agsten, Michael
    ;
    Bretschneider, Peter
    ;
    Snigovyi, Oleksandr
    ;
    Pudlik, Martin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Schlegl, Thomas
    ;
    Westermann, Dirk
    Climate change and limited availability of fossil fuel reserves stress both the importance of deploying renewable energy sources (RES) for electricity generation and the need for a stronger integration of regional electricity markets. This analysis focuses on North African (NA) countries, which possess vast resources of renewable energy but whose electricity supply is still largely dependent on fossil fuels. An analysis of cost-optimized deployment scenarios for RES is conducted in five NA countries in 2030 and 2050. Three electricity models are combined to derive results covering trans-regional to sub-national level, including a detailed analysis of grid capacities and future transmission challenges. Further, opportunities for integration of European and NA electricity markets are evaluated. Results confirm that, by 2050, high RES shares - close to 100% - are possible in NA. Wind energy is the dominant technology. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants also play an important role with rising RES shares due to the possibility to store thermal energy. Electricity exports to Europe gain particular importance in the period after 2030. Substantial transmission grid reinforcements on AC-level and the construction of a high voltage DC overlay grid are prerequisites for the forecasted scenarios.
  • Publication
    A pan-European-North African HVDC grid for bulk energy transmission - a model-based analysis
    ( 2014)
    Bohn, Sven
    ;
    Agsten, Michael
    ;
    Marten, Anne-Katrin
    ;
    Westermann, Dirk
    ;
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    The usage of renewable energy is gaining importance due to national and international targets for reduction of CO2 emissions and consumption of fossil fuels and respective renewable energy deployment goals. Due to the volatile nature of renewable energy and regional potentials for generation in remote areas, there is a need for a better integration of generation and load centers in a common transmission infrastructure. This can be done by establishing a meshed HVDC overlay grid for bulk electricity transmission over long distances. Therefore, this paper describes the outlook for renewable energy deployment by 2050 in the North African region, as well as the potential to export renewable energy to Europe. It analyses the existing AC transmission grid infrastructure and explains why a meshed pan-European-North African HVDC overlay grid will solve the transmission requirements for the target year 2050.