Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    How can the renewables targets be reached cost-effectively? Policy options for the development of renewables and the transmission grid
    ( 2018)
    Held, Anne
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
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    Sensfuß, Frank
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    Resch, Gustav
    ;
    Olmos, Luis
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    Ramos, Andrés
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    Rivier, Michel
    Increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the electricity sector (RES-E) contributes to achieving the European energy and climate targets including a 27% share of renewables in final energy consumption by 2030. We assess the future costs of the power sector for different RES-target levels and support schemes including generation costs, system operation costs and transmission grid development costs based on three power sector models. The results show similar power system costs for different target levels. RES-E shares below 70% involve limited infrastructure costs that are below 2.6% of the overall system costs. The impacts of the modelled RES-E policies, an EU quota and national feed-in premiums on transmission costs are ambiguous: Contrary to expectations, the costs of transmission network development under quota obligations are lower than under technology-specific feed-in premiums for RES-E penetration levels up to 50%. The drivers of transmission costs include not only a concentration of renewable capacity, but also the exact location of RES-E capacity with respect to existing power plants and the strength of the existing infrastructure. Quota obligations lead to higher grid costs than feed-in premiums if the RES-E share amounts to 70% due to the stronger regional concentration of RES power plants.
  • Publication
    Renewable energy deployment in Europe up to 2030 and the aim of a triple dividend
    ( 2016)
    Duscha, Vicki
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    Fougeyrollas, Arnaud
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    Nathani, Carsten
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    Pfaff, Matthias
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    Ragwitz, Mario
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    Resch, Gustav
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    Schade, Wolfgang
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    Breitschopf, Barbara orcid-logo
    ;
    Walz, Rainer orcid-logo
    Renewable energy sources (RES) play a key role in the European Commission's 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, which aims for a low-carbon economy that increases the security of the EU's energy supplies and creates new opportunities for growth and jobs, among other benefits. We assess whether renewable energy deployment in Europe can provide this ""triple dividend"", at which ambition levels of 2030 RES targets and what the role of the support policy scheme for electricity is. We apply two types of models: a detailed techno-economic sector model of the deployment of RES and two macroeconomic models. Our findings suggest that up to 2030 our triple-dividend hypothesis holds even under a declining role of Europe as technology provider for the rest of the world. Additional emission reductions of up to 1040 Mt CO2, as compared to a baseline scenario in 2030, are possible. Demand for fossil fuels can likewise be reduced due to the deployment of renewable energy sources by up to 150 Mtoe. More ambiguous is the order of magnitude of the effects on GDP and employment, which differs noticeably depending on the economic theory applied in the different models. Nevertheless, both models predict slightly higher GDP and employment in 2030 when implementing ambitious RES targets.