Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Factors affecting the calculation of wind power potentials: A case study of China

2021 , Franke, Katja , Sensfuß, Frank , Deac, Gerda , Kleinschmitt, Christoph , Ragwitz, Mario

In order to mitigate global climate change and air pollution, the Chinese government has assigned high priority to expanding low-carbon power generation in China. Recent studies have shown that wind power is one of the most promising renewable energy option in China. Although many studies have estimated the generation potential of onshore wind power, their results vary widely from 1783 TWh to 39,000 TWh. Therefore, we examine the different assumptions in these papers and identify three main factors influencing the results. The three influencing factors are: weather data set, land utilisation factor, and wind turbine configuration. For our model-based analysis, we define a reference scenario which is used to compare the results. Our analysis shows using a different weather data set increases the generation potential to roughly 35,000 TWh. This is 54% higher than the generation potential of the reference scenario. The land utilisation factor also has a large influence, ranging between -10% and -51%. The studies' assumptions and data should be subjected to careful scrutiny, as the calculated wind power potentials are widely used to develop decarbonisation strategies for the energy system.

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Agent-based simulation of electricity markets - a literature review

2007 , Sensfuss, F. , Genoese, M. , Ragwitz, Mario , Möst, D.

Liberalisation, climate policy and promotion of renewable energy are challenges to players of the electricity sector in many countries. Policy makers have to consider issues like market power, bounded rationality of players and the appearance of fluctuating energy sources in order to provide adequate legislation. Furthermore the interactions between markets and environmental policy instruments become an issue of increasing importance. A promising approach for the scientific analysis of these developments is the field of agent-based simulation. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of the current work applying this methodology to the analysis of electricity markets.

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Market integration of renewable electricity generation - the german market premium model

2013 , Klobasa, Marian , Winkler, Jenny , Sensfuss, F. , Ragwitz, Mario

Feed-in tariffs for renewable electricity have proven to be an effective and cost-efficient instrument because they provide long-term investment security; however, they do not incentivize grid and market integration. Feed-in premiums are a relatively novel instrument designed with the objective of keeping investment risks low while allowing for improved grid and market integration. This article analyses the German feed-in premium. The evaluation of the operation during the first year gives first indications that the market premium can contribute to the system and market integration of renewable energies, while still maintaining investment security. First impacts can be seen in the following fields: diversity of market actors, forecast accuracy, improved remote control and participation in the reserve markets. In general, it can be concluded that the German market premium has been able to trigger significant developments. However, additional assessments of the instrument are necessary in order to see whether the observed changes are sustainable and lead to the expected developments.

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The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany

2008 , Sensfuss, F. , Ragwitz, Mario , Genoese, M.

The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers.

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