Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Was bewegt die regionalen Energieversorger? Eine Marktanalyse von Strom-, Gas- und Wärmenetzbetrieben

2024 , Friedmann, Annabel , Oberle, Stella , Wietschel, Martin

Dieser Beitrag befasst sich mit der aktuellen Marktsituation von Strom-, Gas- und Wärmenetzbetrieben. Mittels einer Umfrage unter 1.024 Netzbetrieben in Deutschland sowie insgesamt 11 Expert*inneninterviews zeigt die Studie neben den Synergien und Konkurrenzsituationen auch Chancen sowie Herausforderungen sowie unterschiedliche Organisationsstrukturen auf.

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Pathways to carbon-free transport in Germany until 2050

2022 , Gnann, Till , Speth, Daniel , Krail, Michael , Wietschel, Martin , Oberle, Stella

The transport sector has to be widely decarbonized by 2050 to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. This can be performed with different drive trains and energy carriers. This paper explored four pathways to a carbon-free transport sector in Germany in 2050 with foci on electricity, hydrogen, synthetic methane, or liquid synthetic fuels. We used a transport demand model for future vehicle use and a simulation model for the determination of alternative fuel vehicle market shares. We found a large share of electric vehicles in all scenarios, even in the scenarios with a focus on other fuels. In all scenarios, the final energy consumption decreased significantly, most strongly when the focus was on electricity and almost one-third lower in primary energy demand compared with the other scenarios. A further decrease of energy demand is possible with an even faster adoption of electric vehicles, yet fuel cost then has to be even higher or electricity prices lower.

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Wasserstoff im zukünftigen Energiesystem - eine systemische Analyse

2023 , Köppel, Wolfgang , Wietschel, Martin , Gnann, Till , Fleiter, Tobias , Lux, Benjamin , Manz, Pia , Rehfeldt, Matthias , Speth, Daniel , Steinbach, Jan , Pfluger, Benjamin

Im Rahmen des Teilprojektes 4 des DVGW-Forschungsvorhabens Roadmap Gas 2050 ist der verstärkte Einsatz von Wasserstoff in einem Wasserstoffszenario anhand einer systemanalytischen Bewertung untersucht worden; Details sind dem Deliverable 4.4 zu entnehmen. Hierfür wurde das deutsche Energiesystem in einem Verbund von Modellen für die Abschätzung der Energienachfragen in den Sektoren Mobilität, Gebäude und Industrie und für die Energiebereitstellung (Strom, Wärme, Kraftstoff und Gas) modelliert. Der Bilanzraum der Modellierung ist für die Nachfragemodelle Deutschland und für das Energieangebot EU und MENA mit Schwerpunkt Deutschland. Grundlage der Modellierung ist die Einhaltung der THG-Minderungsziele für die Sektoren entsprechend dem Klimaschutzgesetz von 2021. Ziel war es zum einen, die Bedingungen und Auswirkungen eines schnellen Hochlaufs der Nachfrage von Wasserstoff und weiteren EE-Gasen zu analysieren; zum anderen sollte auch die Bereitstellung der Gase beschrieben werden. Ein möglichst wahrscheinliches Szenario im Sinne einer Vorhersage zu entwerfen, war hingegen keine Zielsetzung des Vorhabens. Kriterien wie Handwerkermangel, Akzeptanz und betriebswirtschaftliche Überlegungen oder regulatorische Randbedingungen wurden vor diesem Hintergrund nicht betrachtet, was in der Realität zu einer langsameren Umsetzung führen kann. Umgekehrt könnte der russische Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine und die damit verbundene Energiekrise zu administrativen Maßnahmen auf europäischer und nationaler Ebene führen, die zu einer Beschleunigung der Umsetzung führen.

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Sector coupling technologies in gas, electricity, and heat networks. Competition or synergy?

2020 , Oberle, Stella , Stute, Judith , Fritz, Markus , Klobasa, Marian , Wietschel, Martin

Current investment in distribution networks for electricity, gas, and heat is high, and the distribution networks play a prominent role in the necessary transformation of the energy system. This paper provides insights into the relationship between residential end-user decisions on heat supply and their effect on infrastructure planning. Therefore, the gas, electricity, and heat networks are analyzed together. After a review of the characteristics of the networks, the most common sector coupling technologies are compared economically and environmentally. The results show that, under the assumptions made, heat pumps are the cheapest option for residential end-users in the long run. This raises the question of whether a parallel development of three different infrastructures for the heat supply of buildings is the best path to a successful energy transition.

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Can Industry Keep Gas Distribution Networks Alive? Future Development of the Gas Network in a Decarbonized World: A German Case Study

2022 , Oberle, Stella , Neuwirth, Marius , Gnann, Till , Wietschel, Martin

With the growing need for decarbonization, the future gas demand will decrease and the necessity of a gas distribution network is at stake. A remaining industrial gas demand on the distribution network level could lead to industry becoming the main gas consumer supplied by the gas distribution network, leading to the question: can industry keep the gas distribution network alive? To answer this research question, a three-stage analysis was conducted, starting from a rough estimate of average gas demand per production site and then increasing the level of detail. This paper shows that about one third of the German industry sites investigated are currently supplied by the gas distribution network. While the steel industry offers new opportunities, the food and tobacco industry alone cannot sustain the gas distribution network by itself.

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Impact of electric vehicles: Will German households pay less for electricity?

2020 , Kühnbach, Matthias , Stute, Judith , Gnann, Till , Wietschel, Martin , Marwitz, Simon , Klobasa, Marian

High energy efficiencies imply that electric mobility is regarded as an important technological option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. However, electric vehicles (EVs) also have impacts on electricity grids and electricity generation. Hence, this paper explores how private EVs affect residential electricity prices in Germany. We examine effects of EVs on electricity generation, the contribution of controlled charging and impacts on distribution grid grids. We show that in 2030, private EVs can reduce the electricity prices for households since at distribution grid level, the additional electricity demand increases the overall utilisation of the grid and lowers specific costs. Because the additional load of EVs leads to an increased usage of power plants with higher variable costs, there is the opposite effect on electricity generation costs, although limited by controlled charging. Overall, the effect of rising electricity generation costs is usually overcompensated by falling specific grid charges.

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