Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    A supply curve of electricity-based hydrogen in a decarbonized European energy system in 2050
    ( 2020)
    Lux, Benjamin orcid-logo
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    Alongside substituting fossil fuels with renewable energies and increasing energy efficiency, the utilization of electricity-based hydrogen or its derived synthetic fuels is a potential strategy to meet ambitious European climate protection targets. As synthetic hydrocarbons have the same chemical properties as their fossil substitutes, existing infrastructures and well-established application technologies can be retained while CO2 emissions in energy conversion, transport, industry, and residential and services can be reduced. However, the conversion processes, especially the generation of hydrogen necessary for all e-fuels, are associated with energy losses and costs. To evaluate the techno-economic hydrogen production potential and the impact of its utilization on the rest of the energy system, a supply curve of electricity-based hydrogen in a greenhouse gas emission-free European energy system in 2050 was developed. It was found that hydrogen quantities of the order of magnitude envisaged in the 1.5 °C scenarios by the European Commission's long-term strategic vision (1536-1953 TWhH2) induce marginal hydrogen production costs of over 110 e2020/MWhH2 and electrolyzer capacities of more than 615 GWel. Although the generation of these amounts of hydrogen using electrolysis provides some flexibility to the electricity system and can integrate small amounts of local surplus electricity, an additional 766 GWel of wind power and 865 GWel of solar power must be installed to cover the additional electricity demand for hydrogen production. It was furthermore found that the most important techno-economic properties of electrolyzers used in an energy system dominated by renewable energies are the ability to operate flexibly and the conversion efficiency of electricity into hydrogen. It is anticipated that the shown analysis is valuable for bothpolicy-makers, who need to identify research, subsidy and infrastructure requirements for a future energy system, and corporate decision-makers, whose business models will be significantly affected by the future availability of electricity-based fuels.
  • Publication
    Low-carbon energy scenarios 2050 in north-west European countries: Towards a more harmonised approach to achieve the EU targets
    ( 2019)
    Mikova, Nadezhda
    ;
    Eichhammer, Wolfgang orcid-logo
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    This paper proposes an approach to comparing and assessing the policy settings in the European low-carbon energy scenarios. First, it presents the methodology including ten characteristics for scenario assessment: modelling framework (diversity), ambitiousness of the targets 2050, relations with other (European) countries, stakeholder involvement, technology options, non-technological aspects, economic component, usage of scenarios in policy design, intermediate indicators of targets' achievement and revision of scenarios. Further, it uses qualitative and quantitative methods to evaluate energy scenarios developed in six north-west European countries (the Netherlands, Germany, France, Denmark, the UK, Belgium). Finally, conclusions are made concerning the possible ways of scenario design improvement. The analysis has shown that all selected countries have potential for modifying their energy scenarios, which being implemented may help to achieve the joint European targets 2050. Since these countries are socially and economically interrelated, a more harmonised approach to scenario development is needed to be designed and introduced on the EU level. Ten characteristics proposed in this study may serve as an initial input for such harmonisation. The results can be of interest to economists, business and academic representatives, and especially policy makers involved in the long-term energy scenario development on the international, regional and national level.
  • Publication
    Beyond the day-ahead market - effects of revenue maximisation of the marketing of renewables on electricity markets
    ( 2017)
    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Emmerich, Rouven
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    ;
    Senft, Christian
    The proportion of renewable energy has rapidly increased in many countries during the last few years. Due to the specific characteristics of variable renewables, this development influences the price on electricity markets as well as flexibility requirements in the electricity system. New developments regarding market liberalisation and support schemes for renewables encourage the active participation of renewables in the electricity market. This paper analyses the effects of such a participation of renewables in different electricity market segments. In particular, we investigate how the active marketing of renewables on the day-ahead, intra-day, balancing and futures markets dampen their effects on markets and systems. Using German data for 2013, we determine the effect of direct marketing on average market price levels and price volatility, the possible contribution of renewables to balancing, the profitability of flexible generation from biomass, and the additional revenues that renewables can generate from participating in different markets. Price effects of shifting renewables between markets, and limits in intra-day market liquidity are included in the assessment.
  • Publication
    Impact of renewables on electricity markets - do support schemes matter?
    ( 2016)
    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Gaio, Alberto
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    Rising renewable shares influence electricity markets in several ways: among others, average market prices are reduced and price volatility increases. Therefore, the "missing money problem" in energy-only electricity markets is more likely to occur in systems with high renewable shares. Nevertheless, renewables are supported in many countries due to their expected benefits. The kind of support instrument can however influence the degree to which renewables influence the market. While fixed feed-in tariffs lead to higher market impacts, more market-oriented support schemes such as market premiums, quota systems and capacity-based payments decrease the extent to which markets are affected. This paper analyzes the market impacts of different support schemes. For this purpose, a new module is added to an existing bottom-up simulation model of the electricity market. In addition, different degrees of flexibility in the electricity system are considered. A case study for Germany is used to derive policy recommendations regarding the choice of support scheme.
  • Publication
    The market value of renewable electricity - which factors really matter?
    ( 2016)
    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Pudlik, Martin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    The development of renewable energy technologies, their future market integration, and support scheme design depends crucially on the market value of electricity from renewable sources. The literature shows that there are many factors that potentially influence these market values. However, existing studies are limited in mostly just analyzing the influence of these factors individually or at most the combined effects of only two factors. In this study, a large number of scenarios for possible future electricity systems and the resulting market values are calculated. Results are assessed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis to identify the most important factors influencing market values. Therefore, we are able to quantitatively analyze the individual impacts of a complex combination of flexibility options, which can facilitate more informed strategies by policy markers, regulators, and market participants regarding system flexibility options. We show here that the development of CO2 and gas prices, as well as the conventional capacity mix is crucial for the development of renewable electricity market values. System flexibility including must-run requirements, heat grids and electric mobility become relevant at higher technology-specific market shares for both photovoltaics and onshore wind. Storage only influences photovoltaics market values even though assumed storage capacities and volume are high.
  • Publication
    Deep greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe
    ( 2013)
    Deetman, Sebastiaan
    ;
    Hof, Andries F.
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    ;
    Vuuren, Detlef P. van
    ;
    Girod, Bastien
    ;
    Ruijven, Bas J. van
    Most modelling studies that explore emission mitigation scenarios only look into least-cost emission pathways, induced by a carbon tax. This means that European policies targeting specific - sometimes relatively costly - technologies, such as electric cars and advanced insulation measures, are usually not evaluated as part of cost-optimal scenarios. This study explores an emission mitigation scenario for Europe up to 2050, taking as a starting point specific emission reduction options instead of a carbon tax. The purpose is to identify the potential of each of these policies and identify trade-offs between sectoral policies in achieving emission reduction targets. The reduction options evaluated in this paper together lead to a reduction of 65% of 1990 CO2-equivalent emissions by 2050. More bottom-up modelling exercises, like the one presented here, provide a promising starting point to evaluate policy options that are currently considered by policy makers.