Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Krieg in der Ukraine: Auswirkungen auf die europäische und deutsche Importstrategie von Wasserstoff und Syntheseprodukten. Impulspapier

2022 , Wietschel, Martin , Roth, Florian , Fragoso García, Joshua , Herbst, Andrea , Kleinschmitt, Christoph , Wittmann, Florian , Breitschopf, Barbara , Zheng, Lin , Eckstein, Johannes , Neuwirth, Marius , Pfluger, Benjamin , Ragwitz, Mario , Löschel, Andreas , Biesewig, Lars , Thiel, Zarah , Voglstätter, Christopher , Nunez, Almudena , Quitzow, Rainer , Kunze, Robert , Stamm, Andreas , Strohmaier, Rita , Lorych, Ludger

Der Angriffskrieg von Russland auf die Ukraine hat auf vielen Seiten zur Erkenntnis geführt, dass die bisher geltende Gewissheit, dass enge Handelsbeziehungen zu einer stabilen Energieversorgung führen, zu hinterfragen ist. Das Zukunftsthema Wasserstoff ist davon in besonderem Maße betroffen. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschäftigt sich das Impulspapier unter anderem mit neuen Ansätzen der Bewertung von Partnerländern beim Wasserstoffimport, der Entwicklung von Importkosten und den Potenzialen für eine Wasserstoffherstellung in der EU. Zudem geht das Papier auf die künftige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der Ukraine durch die Erzeugung und den Transport von Wasserstoff ein.

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Import von Wasserstoff und Wasserstoffderivaten: Von Kosten zu Preisen

2021 , Wietschel, Martin , Eckstein, Johannes , Riemer, Matia , Zheng, Lin , Lux, Benjamin , Neuner, Felix , Breitschopf, Barbara , Fragoso García, Joshua , Kleinschmitt, Christoph , Pieton, Natalia , Nolden, Christoph , Pfluger, Benjamin , Thiel, Zarah , Löschel, Andreas

Nach heutigem Kenntnisstand wird Deutschland zur Erreichung seiner ambitionierten Ziele auf den Import von Wasserstoff und Wasserstoffderivaten angewiesen sein. Vor dieser Problemstellung wird hier erstmals ein Ansatz vorgestellt, wie man sich eine künftige Marktentstehung vorstellen kann und wie man von Herstellkosten zu Preisen kommen könnte. Hierzu wird die Entwicklung eines partiellen Gleichgewichtsmodells skizziert mit preiselastischen Angebots- und Nachfrage-funktionen und den Einbezug von Transportkosten. In diesem werden auch die Länderrisiken und der Einfluss der Regulierung berücksichtigt.

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A supply curve of electricity-based hydrogen in a decarbonized European energy system in 2050

2020 , Lux, Benjamin , Pfluger, Benjamin

Alongside substituting fossil fuels with renewable energies and increasing energy efficiency, the utilization of electricity-based hydrogen or its derived synthetic fuels is a potential strategy to meet ambitious European climate protection targets. As synthetic hydrocarbons have the same chemical properties as their fossil substitutes, existing infrastructures and well-established application technologies can be retained while CO2 emissions in energy conversion, transport, industry, and residential and services can be reduced. However, the conversion processes, especially the generation of hydrogen necessary for all e-fuels, are associated with energy losses and costs. To evaluate the techno-economic hydrogen production potential and the impact of its utilization on the rest of the energy system, a supply curve of electricity-based hydrogen in a greenhouse gas emission-free European energy system in 2050 was developed. It was found that hydrogen quantities of the order of magnitude envisaged in the 1.5 °C scenarios by the European Commission's long-term strategic vision (1536-1953 TWhH2) induce marginal hydrogen production costs of over 110 e2020/MWhH2 and electrolyzer capacities of more than 615 GWel. Although the generation of these amounts of hydrogen using electrolysis provides some flexibility to the electricity system and can integrate small amounts of local surplus electricity, an additional 766 GWel of wind power and 865 GWel of solar power must be installed to cover the additional electricity demand for hydrogen production. It was furthermore found that the most important techno-economic properties of electrolyzers used in an energy system dominated by renewable energies are the ability to operate flexibly and the conversion efficiency of electricity into hydrogen. It is anticipated that the shown analysis is valuable for bothpolicy-makers, who need to identify research, subsidy and infrastructure requirements for a future energy system, and corporate decision-makers, whose business models will be significantly affected by the future availability of electricity-based fuels.

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Socio-technical scenarios as a methodological tool to explore social and political feasibility in low-carbon transitions: Bridging computer models and the multi-level perspective in UK electricity generation (2010-2050)

2020 , Geels, Frank W. , McMeekin, Andrew , Pfluger, Benjamin

Social acceptance and political feasibility are important issues in low-carbon transitions. Since computer models struggle to address these issues, the paper advances socio-technical scenarios as a novel methodological tool. Contributing to recent dialogue approaches, we develop an eight-step methodological procedure that produces socio-technical scenarios through various interactions between the multi-level perspective and computer models. As a specific contribution, we propose 'transition bottlenecks' as a methodological aid to mediate dialogue between qualitative MLP-based analysis of contemporary dynamics and quantitative, model-generated future pathways. The transition bottlenecks also guide the articulation of socio-technical storylines that suggest how the social acceptance and political feasibility of particular low-carbon innovations can be improved through social interactions and endogenous changes in discourses, preferences, support coalitions and policies. Drawing on results from the 3-year PATHWAYS project, we demonstrate these contributions for the UK electricity system, developing two low-carbon transition pathways to 2050 commensurate with the 2 °C target, one based on technological substitution (enacted by incumbent actors), and one based on broader system transformation (enacted by new entrants).

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Durchstarten trotz Unsicherheiten: Eckpunkte einer anpassungsfähigen Wasserstoffstrategie. Ariadne-Kurzdossier

2021 , Ueckerdt, Falko , Günther, Claudia , Rehfeldt, Matthias , Gils, Hans C. , Pfluger, Benjamin , Knodt, Michèle , Bauer, Christian , Luderer, Gunnar , Odenweller, Adrian , Kemmerzell, Jörg , Verpoort, Philipp

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Interaction of energy storage technologies and synthetic fuels in long-term decarbonization scenarios

2021 , Böttger, Diana , Kost, Christoph , Wrede, Daniel , Lux, Benjamin , Fleiter, Tobias , Pfluger, Benjamin , Heilig, Judith , Gerhardt, Norman , Haendel, Michael

With the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the international community has reaffirmed its commitment to tackle anthropogenic climate change with the goal of limiting the global average temperature increase below 1.5 °C, but to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Against this background, we examine scenarios for a complete decarbonisation of the European energy supply. Since such scenarios are based on a high expansion of weather-dependent renewable energy sources, the question arises, which flexible technologies are necessary to balance supply and demand in such energy systems. In this paper, a scenario analysis shows which capacity or volume of energy storage, power interconnectors and synthetic fuels are needed in decarbonization scenarios. To address this research question three different energy system models are applied. These models cover Europe and Germany, respectively, and are able to explain different results of the single models based of the corresponding model characteristics. The paper concludes that the power sector is able to cover a considerable share of the energy demand in the heat and transport sector with the help of flexible sector coupling technologies such as heat pumps and electric mobility. All considered models manage to find solutions for a deep decarbonization if flexibility and storage option are available.

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From global to national scenarios. Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies

2020 , Hof, Andries F. , Carrara, Samuel , Cian, Enrica de , Pfluger, Benjamin , Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. van , Boer, Harmen S. de , Vuuren, Detlef P. van

In this paper, we apply two global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and one detailed European electricity system model to explore the consequences of different narrative-based low-carbon scenarios on the electricity system from the global to national scale. The narratives are based on insights from socio-technical transition analysis on niche-innovations. The main aim of this exercise is to examine the solution space in low-carbon scenarios for electricity supply from the global to national scale, which is largely neglected when focusing on cost-optimal solutions only. We show that taking into account insights from socio-technical transition analysis can have large impacts on the projected transition strategy, especially regarding relatively costly technologies that currently have a high momentum. For instance, we find that the share of offshore wind in electricity generation in Europe is less than 3% or up to 27% by 2050, depending on the underlying narrative. These ranges are useful input for policy-makers, as they show the degree of flexibility in mitigation options. Furthermore, our analysis shows that combining IAMs with more detailed sectoral models illuminates the challenges on a more detailed geographical scale, for instance regarding storage requirements and the need for interconnectivity across European borders.

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Deutschland auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität 2045. Ariadne-Report. Zusammenfassung

2021 , Luderer, Gunnar , Günther, Claudia , Sörgel, Dominika , Kost, Christoph , Benke, Falk , Auer, Cornelia , Koller, Florian , Herbst, Andrea , Reder, Klara , Böttger, Diana , Ueckerdt, Falko , Pfluger, Benjamin , Wrede, Daniel , Strefler, Jessica , Merfort, Anne , Rauner, Sebastian , Siala, Kais , Schlichenmaier, Simon

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Supply curves of electricity-based gaseous fuels in the MENA region

2021 , Lux, Benjamin , Gegenheimer, Johanna , Franke, Katja , Sensfuß, Frank , Pfluger, Benjamin

The utilization of electricity-based fuels (e-fuels) is a potential strategy component for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union (EU). As renewable electricity production sites in the EU itself might be scarce and relatively expensive, importing e-fuels from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) could be a complementary and cost-efficient option. Using the energy system model Enertile, supply curves for hydrogen and synthetic methane in the MENA region are determined for the years 2030 and 2050 to evaluate this import option techno-economically. The model optimizes investments in renewable electricity production, e-fuel production chains, and local electricity transport infrastructures. Analyses of renewable electricity generation potentials show that the MENA region in particular has large low-cost solar power potentials. Optimization results in Enertile show for a weighted average cost of capital of 7% that substantial hydrogen production starts above 100 e/MWhH2 in 2030 and above 70 e/MWhH2 in 2050. Substantial synthetic methane production in the model results starts above 170 e/MWhCH4 in 2030 and above 120 e/MWhCH4 in 2050. The most important cost component in both fuel production routes is electricity. Taking into account transport cost surcharges, in Europe synthetic methane from MENA is available above 180 e/MWhCH4 in 2030 and above 130 e/MWhCH4 in 2050. Hydrogen exports from MENA to Europe cost above 120 e/MWhH2 in 2030 and above 90 e/MWhH2 in 2050. If exported to Europe, both e-fuels are more expensive to produce and transport in liquefied form than in gaseous form. A comparison of European hydrogen supply curves with hydrogen imports from MENA for 2050 reveals that imports can only be economically efficient if the two following conditions are met: Firstly, similar interest rates prevail in the EU and MENA; secondly, hydrogen transport costs converge at the cheap end of the range in the current literature. Apart from this, a shortage of land for renewable electricity generation in Europe may lead to hydrogen imports from MENA. This analysis is intended to assist in guiding European industrial and energy policy, planning import infrastructure needs, and providing an analytical framework for project developers in the MENA region.

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Transformative policy mixes in socio-technical scenarios: The case of the low-carbon transition of the German electricity system (2010-2050)

2020 , Rogge, Karoline , Pfluger, Benjamin , Geels, Frank W.

Much research and policy advice for addressing climate change has focused on developing model-based scenarios to identify pathways towards achieving decarbonisation targets. The paper's first aim is to complement such model-based analysis with insights from socio-technical transition analysis to develop socio-technical storylines that show how low-carbon transitions can be implemented. Our second aim is to explore how policymakers could govern such transition processes through transformative policy mixes. We take the example of the transition of the German electricity system towards renewable energies, and elaborate two transition pathways which are assumed to achieve an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but differ in terms of lead actors, depth and scope of change: the first pathway captures the substitution of technological components (pathway A), while the second aims at broader system transformation (pathway B). We find that multi-dimensional socio-technical change (pathway B) requires greater emphasis on societal experimentation and a more proactive role for anticipatory deliberation processes from the outset. In contrast, shifting gear from a new entrant friendly past trajectory to an incumbent dominated pathway (pathway A) requires agency from incumbents and is associated with regime stabilizing instruments defending the old regime while simultaneously fulfilling decarbonisation as additional success criteria.

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