Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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Actors, decision-making, and institutions in quantitative system modelling

2020 , Cian, Enrica de , Dasgupta, Shouro , Hof, Andries F. , Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. van , Köhler, Jonathan , Pfluger, Benjamin , Vuuren, Detlef P. van

Increasing realism in quantitative system modelling with respect to the representation of actors, decision making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society. Yet, studies using quantitative system models, which have become a key analytical tool to support sustainability and decarbonization policies, focus on outcomes, therefore overlooking the dynamics of the drivers of change. We explore opportunities that arise from a deeper engagement of quantitative systems modelling with social science. We argue that several opportunities for enriching the realism in model-based scenario analysis can arise through model refinements oriented towards a more detailed approach in terms of actor heterogeneity, as well as through integration across different analytical and disciplinary approaches. Several opportunities that do not require major changes in model structure are ready to be seized. Promising ones include combining different types of models and enriching model-based scenarios with evidence from applied economics and transition studies.

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Deep greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe

2013 , Deetman, Sebastiaan , Hof, Andries F. , Pfluger, Benjamin , Vuuren, Detlef P. van , Girod, Bastien , Ruijven, Bas J. van

Most modelling studies that explore emission mitigation scenarios only look into least-cost emission pathways, induced by a carbon tax. This means that European policies targeting specific - sometimes relatively costly - technologies, such as electric cars and advanced insulation measures, are usually not evaluated as part of cost-optimal scenarios. This study explores an emission mitigation scenario for Europe up to 2050, taking as a starting point specific emission reduction options instead of a carbon tax. The purpose is to identify the potential of each of these policies and identify trade-offs between sectoral policies in achieving emission reduction targets. The reduction options evaluated in this paper together lead to a reduction of 65% of 1990 CO2-equivalent emissions by 2050. More bottom-up modelling exercises, like the one presented here, provide a promising starting point to evaluate policy options that are currently considered by policy makers.

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From global to national scenarios. Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies

2020 , Hof, Andries F. , Carrara, Samuel , Cian, Enrica de , Pfluger, Benjamin , Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. van , Boer, Harmen S. de , Vuuren, Detlef P. van

In this paper, we apply two global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and one detailed European electricity system model to explore the consequences of different narrative-based low-carbon scenarios on the electricity system from the global to national scale. The narratives are based on insights from socio-technical transition analysis on niche-innovations. The main aim of this exercise is to examine the solution space in low-carbon scenarios for electricity supply from the global to national scale, which is largely neglected when focusing on cost-optimal solutions only. We show that taking into account insights from socio-technical transition analysis can have large impacts on the projected transition strategy, especially regarding relatively costly technologies that currently have a high momentum. For instance, we find that the share of offshore wind in electricity generation in Europe is less than 3% or up to 27% by 2050, depending on the underlying narrative. These ranges are useful input for policy-makers, as they show the degree of flexibility in mitigation options. Furthermore, our analysis shows that combining IAMs with more detailed sectoral models illuminates the challenges on a more detailed geographical scale, for instance regarding storage requirements and the need for interconnectivity across European borders.

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Low-carbon strategies towards 2050: Comparing ex-ante policy evaluation studies and national planning processes in Europe

2017 , Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. van , Hof, Andries F. , Vuuren, Detlef P. van , Boot, Pieter , Criqui, Patrick , Matthes, Felix C. , Notenboom, Jos , Pedersen, Sigurd L. , Pfluger, Benjamin , Watson, Jim

The European Union (EU) is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels by 80%-95% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Various approaches have been developed to secure and evaluate the progress made towards this objective. To gain insights into how EU Member States are aligning to this collective long-term objective, we systematically compare the planning and ex-ante evaluation processes for five EU countries (respectively Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). The comparative analysis consists of a qualitative comparison of (1) the governance of long-term policy planning and evaluation processes, (2) the national arrangement for quantitative (model-based) ex-ante policy evaluation and (3) the national arrangement for qualitative ex-ante policy evaluation (stakeholder participation). In a second step we conduct a quantitative comparison of national model-based ex-ante evaluation studies to assess the relative differences between the considered routes and the differences across the various countries. Although the five Member States plan policies along the same EU objective, we find a high diversity in how long-term commitments are established, governed and evaluated on the national level. Model-based scenario analyses are commonly used to explore and evaluate the possible national routes towards the EU 2050 objective. However, as these processes mostly concentrate on domestic action, they pay little attention to how domestic policies are affected by, or affecting, other international activities throughout Europe. Hence, current findings suggest that cross-border collaboration and stakeholder participation could further strengthen the analytical understanding of required transformative change in Europe and subsequently lead to a more durable long-term solution over time.

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