Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    Beyond the day-ahead market - effects of revenue maximisation of the marketing of renewables on electricity markets
    ( 2017)
    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Emmerich, Rouven
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    ;
    Senft, Christian
    The proportion of renewable energy has rapidly increased in many countries during the last few years. Due to the specific characteristics of variable renewables, this development influences the price on electricity markets as well as flexibility requirements in the electricity system. New developments regarding market liberalisation and support schemes for renewables encourage the active participation of renewables in the electricity market. This paper analyses the effects of such a participation of renewables in different electricity market segments. In particular, we investigate how the active marketing of renewables on the day-ahead, intra-day, balancing and futures markets dampen their effects on markets and systems. Using German data for 2013, we determine the effect of direct marketing on average market price levels and price volatility, the possible contribution of renewables to balancing, the profitability of flexible generation from biomass, and the additional revenues that renewables can generate from participating in different markets. Price effects of shifting renewables between markets, and limits in intra-day market liquidity are included in the assessment.
  • Publication
    Impact of renewables on electricity markets - do support schemes matter?
    ( 2016)
    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Gaio, Alberto
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    Rising renewable shares influence electricity markets in several ways: among others, average market prices are reduced and price volatility increases. Therefore, the "missing money problem" in energy-only electricity markets is more likely to occur in systems with high renewable shares. Nevertheless, renewables are supported in many countries due to their expected benefits. The kind of support instrument can however influence the degree to which renewables influence the market. While fixed feed-in tariffs lead to higher market impacts, more market-oriented support schemes such as market premiums, quota systems and capacity-based payments decrease the extent to which markets are affected. This paper analyzes the market impacts of different support schemes. For this purpose, a new module is added to an existing bottom-up simulation model of the electricity market. In addition, different degrees of flexibility in the electricity system are considered. A case study for Germany is used to derive policy recommendations regarding the choice of support scheme.
  • Publication
    The market value of renewable electricity - which factors really matter?
    ( 2016)
    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Pudlik, Martin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    The development of renewable energy technologies, their future market integration, and support scheme design depends crucially on the market value of electricity from renewable sources. The literature shows that there are many factors that potentially influence these market values. However, existing studies are limited in mostly just analyzing the influence of these factors individually or at most the combined effects of only two factors. In this study, a large number of scenarios for possible future electricity systems and the resulting market values are calculated. Results are assessed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis to identify the most important factors influencing market values. Therefore, we are able to quantitatively analyze the individual impacts of a complex combination of flexibility options, which can facilitate more informed strategies by policy markers, regulators, and market participants regarding system flexibility options. We show here that the development of CO2 and gas prices, as well as the conventional capacity mix is crucial for the development of renewable electricity market values. System flexibility including must-run requirements, heat grids and electric mobility become relevant at higher technology-specific market shares for both photovoltaics and onshore wind. Storage only influences photovoltaics market values even though assumed storage capacities and volume are high.
  • Publication
    Fruitful symbiosis: Why an export bundled with wind energy is the most feasible option for North African concentrated solar power
    ( 2011)
    Kost, Christoph
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    ;
    Eichhammer, Wolfgang orcid-logo
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    The idea of generating electricity in North Africa using concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) has been around for some time now but has recently gained momentum through the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) and the formation of the Desertec Industrial Initiative. This paper argues that while the large-scale deployment of CSP in North Africa does not seem economically attractive for either European or African institutions or countries on their own at present, combining domestic use and electricity exports could be profitable for both parties. A detailed economic portfolio covering both solar and wind power plants can achieve competitive price levels, which would accelerate the diffusion of solar technology in North Africa. This portfolio could be financed partially by exporting electricity from solar thermal plants in North Africa via HVDC interconnections to European consumers. Sharing the costs in this way makes it possible to generate solar electricity for the domesti c market at a reasonable cost. Some of the electricity produced from the solar power plants and wind parks in North Africa is sold on European energy markets in the form of a long-term contracted solar-wind portfolio, which would qualify for support from the financial incentive schemes of the European Member States (e.g. feed-in tariffs). This transfer of green electricity could help to meet the targets for energy from renewable energy sources (RES) in the EU Member States as the new EU Directive of 2009 opened the European electricity market to imports from third states.