Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    Beyond the day-ahead market - effects of revenue maximisation of the marketing of renewables on electricity markets
    ( 2017)
    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Emmerich, Rouven
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    ;
    Senft, Christian
    The proportion of renewable energy has rapidly increased in many countries during the last few years. Due to the specific characteristics of variable renewables, this development influences the price on electricity markets as well as flexibility requirements in the electricity system. New developments regarding market liberalisation and support schemes for renewables encourage the active participation of renewables in the electricity market. This paper analyses the effects of such a participation of renewables in different electricity market segments. In particular, we investigate how the active marketing of renewables on the day-ahead, intra-day, balancing and futures markets dampen their effects on markets and systems. Using German data for 2013, we determine the effect of direct marketing on average market price levels and price volatility, the possible contribution of renewables to balancing, the profitability of flexible generation from biomass, and the additional revenues that renewables can generate from participating in different markets. Price effects of shifting renewables between markets, and limits in intra-day market liquidity are included in the assessment.
  • Publication
    Impact of renewables on electricity markets - do support schemes matter?
    ( 2016)
    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Gaio, Alberto
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    Rising renewable shares influence electricity markets in several ways: among others, average market prices are reduced and price volatility increases. Therefore, the "missing money problem" in energy-only electricity markets is more likely to occur in systems with high renewable shares. Nevertheless, renewables are supported in many countries due to their expected benefits. The kind of support instrument can however influence the degree to which renewables influence the market. While fixed feed-in tariffs lead to higher market impacts, more market-oriented support schemes such as market premiums, quota systems and capacity-based payments decrease the extent to which markets are affected. This paper analyzes the market impacts of different support schemes. For this purpose, a new module is added to an existing bottom-up simulation model of the electricity market. In addition, different degrees of flexibility in the electricity system are considered. A case study for Germany is used to derive policy recommendations regarding the choice of support scheme.
  • Publication
    The market value of renewable electricity - which factors really matter?
    ( 2016)
    Winkler, Jenny
    ;
    Pudlik, Martin
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Pfluger, Benjamin
    The development of renewable energy technologies, their future market integration, and support scheme design depends crucially on the market value of electricity from renewable sources. The literature shows that there are many factors that potentially influence these market values. However, existing studies are limited in mostly just analyzing the influence of these factors individually or at most the combined effects of only two factors. In this study, a large number of scenarios for possible future electricity systems and the resulting market values are calculated. Results are assessed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis to identify the most important factors influencing market values. Therefore, we are able to quantitatively analyze the individual impacts of a complex combination of flexibility options, which can facilitate more informed strategies by policy markers, regulators, and market participants regarding system flexibility options. We show here that the development of CO2 and gas prices, as well as the conventional capacity mix is crucial for the development of renewable electricity market values. System flexibility including must-run requirements, heat grids and electric mobility become relevant at higher technology-specific market shares for both photovoltaics and onshore wind. Storage only influences photovoltaics market values even though assumed storage capacities and volume are high.