Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

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  • Publication
    How can the renewables targets be reached cost-effectively? Policy options for the development of renewables and the transmission grid
    ( 2018)
    Held, Anne
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Sensfuß, Frank
    ;
    Resch, Gustav
    ;
    Olmos, Luis
    ;
    Ramos, Andrés
    ;
    Rivier, Michel
    Increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the electricity sector (RES-E) contributes to achieving the European energy and climate targets including a 27% share of renewables in final energy consumption by 2030. We assess the future costs of the power sector for different RES-target levels and support schemes including generation costs, system operation costs and transmission grid development costs based on three power sector models. The results show similar power system costs for different target levels. RES-E shares below 70% involve limited infrastructure costs that are below 2.6% of the overall system costs. The impacts of the modelled RES-E policies, an EU quota and national feed-in premiums on transmission costs are ambiguous: Contrary to expectations, the costs of transmission network development under quota obligations are lower than under technology-specific feed-in premiums for RES-E penetration levels up to 50%. The drivers of transmission costs include not only a concentration of renewable capacity, but also the exact location of RES-E capacity with respect to existing power plants and the strength of the existing infrastructure. Quota obligations lead to higher grid costs than feed-in premiums if the RES-E share amounts to 70% due to the stronger regional concentration of RES power plants.
  • Publication
    Challenges and appropriate policy portfolios for (almost) mature renewable electricity technologies
    ( 2017)
    Held, Anne
    ;
    Boßmann, Tobias
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Río, Pablo Del
    ;
    Janeiro, Luis
    ;
    Förster, Sonja
    This paper assesses challenges arising for renewable energy technologies that have achieved a certain maturity level in terms of technology development, costs and market penetration. We identify these challenges, which diverge from challenges for less mature technologies and, based on three case studies, we analyse how some of the challenges have materialised and have been dealt with in practice. Case studies include experiences with the occurrence of negative prices in Germany, the question of how to deal with a market situation characterised by overcapacity in Spain and the problem of social opposition towards the construction of renewable power plants in the UK. Finally, we suggest solutions to deal with these issues in order to ensure the 2030 target is achieved, taking into account the changing framework conditions.
  • Publication
    A composite indicator for short-term diffusion forecasts of renewable energy technologies - the case of Germany
    ( 2016)
    Boie, Inga
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Held, Anne
    This paper investigates the impact of energy policy and the regulatory environment on the deployment of technologies based on renewable energy sources in Germany and presents a model to forecast future renewable energy technology diffusion. Our concept is based on the development of a composite indicator for renewable energy diffusion with a focus on wind energy (onshore) and photovoltaic. The approach has three major components: in-depth, semi-structured interviews with renewable energy developers and energy sector stakeholders to identify the major drivers and barriers (determinants) for renewable energy diffusion in the case study country; an EU-wide, questionnaire-based survey to understand the relevance (weights) of the individual determinants; and an analysis of past renewable energy diffusion patterns resulting in the deduction of a model for short-term renewable energy technology diffusion forecasts. Results demonstrate the substantial impact of economic and non-economic framework conditions on the diffusion of photovoltaic and wind energy in Germany. Furthermore, the use of composite indicators for renewable energy technology diffusion analyses proves to be a promising approach.
  • Publication
    Status and perspectives of renewable energy policy and deployment in the European Union - What is needed to reach the 2020 targets?
    ( 2011)
    Klessmann, Corinna
    ;
    Held, Anne
    ;
    Rathmann, Max
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    This article evaluates the status of current RES deployment, policies and barriers in the EU-27 member states and compares it to the required to meet the 2020 targets. The evaluation relies strongly on the quantitative deployment status and policy effectiveness indicators. European RES deployment and policy has progressed strongly in recent years, but the growth here has been mainly driven by effective policies in a small or medium number of top runner countries. Across Europe, the highest average policy effectiveness over six years was reached for onshore wind (4.2%), biofuels (3.6%) and biomass electricity (2.7%), while in the heat sector, all technologies score below 2%. Comparing the recent progress to the required growth for meeting the 2020 target, it appears that some countries largely exceed the interim targets of the RES Directive 2009/28/EC. Despite this, Europe will need additional policy effort to reach the 2020 target. Critical success factors include imple menting effective and efficient policies that attract sufficient investments, reducing administrative and grid related barriers, especially in currently less advanced countries, upgrading the power grid infrastructure, dismantling financial barriers in the heat sector, realising sustainability standards for biomass, and lowering energy demand through increased energy efficiency efforts.
  • Publication
    Efficiency and effectiveness of promotion systems for electricity generation from renewable energy sources - lessons from EU countries
    ( 2011)
    Haas, R.
    ;
    Resch, G.
    ;
    Panzer, C.
    ;
    Busch, S.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Held, A.
    Currently, a wide range of strategies is implemented in different countries to increase the share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E). A still controversial discussion is whether quantity-driven (like Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs) based on quotas) or price-driven (like feed-in-tariffs (FIT)) instruments lead to preferable solutions for society. The core objective of this paper is to compare the perspectives of quota-based certificate trading systems for an efficient and effective increase of RES-E with FIT. The major results of this analysis are: (i) The success stories of growth in RES-E in EU member states in recent years has been triggered by FIT implemented in a technology-specific manner at modest costs for European citizens; (ii) At present, TGC systems in most countries applied show a low effectiveness with respect to RES-E deployment of less mature technologies such as solar PV (with improving tendencies in e.g. the UK or Italy with respect to certain technologies); (iii) Compared to short term trading in TGC markets the intrinsic stability of FIT systems appears to be a key element for success; (iv) Hence, currently a well-designed (dynamic) FIT system provides a certain deployment of RES-E in the shortest time and at lowest costs for society.
  • Publication
    A historical review of promotion strategies for electricity from renewable energy sources in EU countries
    ( 2011)
    Haas, R.
    ;
    Panzer, C.
    ;
    Resch, G.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Reece, G.
    ;
    Held, A.
    The core objective of this paper is to elaborate on historically implemented promotion strategies of renewable energy sources and the associated deployment within the European electricity market. Hence, at a first glance, the historic development of renewable energy sources in the electricity (RES-E) sector is addressed on Member State and on sectoral level as well as consequently discussed according to available RES-E potentials and costs. The specific focus of this paper, are promotion strategies for RES-E options as they are the key driver of an efficient and effective RES-E deployment. Therefore, the paper depicts the main types of different promotion schemes and their properties. Additionally, several cases studies of different European Member States show an in-depth analysis of the different RES-E promotion schemes. In this context, special emphasises are put on the question of effective and efficient promotion scheme designs of different RES-E technologies. Generally, conducted research led to the conclusion, that technology specific financial support measures of RES-E performed much more effective and efficient than others did. Hence, it is not all about the common question of feed-in tariffs vs. quota systems based on tradable green certificates, but more about the design criteria of implemented RES-E support schemes.
  • Publication
    On the success of policy strategies for the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources in the EU
    ( 2006)
    Held, A.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Haas, R.
    In recent years, a wide range of strategies has been implemented in different EU-countries to increase the share of electricity generation from renewable energy sources. This paper evaluates the success of different regulatory strategies. The most important conclusions of this analysis are: (i) regardless of which strategy is chosen, it is of overriding importance that there should be a clear focus on the exclusive promotion of newly installed plants; (ii) a well-designed (dynamic) feed-in tariff system ensures the fastest deployment of power plants using Renewable Energy Sources at the lowest cost to society; (iii) promotion strategies with low policy risks have lower profit requirements for investors and, hence, cause lower costs to electricity customers.
  • Publication
    RE policy in Europe
    ( 2006)
    Held, A.
    ;
    Ragwitz, Mario
    European Member States have made positive steps towards addressing climate change since the implementation of a renewable electricity directive in 2001. Individual countries have adopted different approaches towards meeting the RE targets arising from the directive such as introducing a feed-in tariff. Anne Held and Mario Ragwitz, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research take a closer look at European progress to date, in particular focusing on the feed-in tariff approaches employed by Spain and Germany and how these may be optimized.
  • Publication
    Vergleich der Förderinstrumente für erneuerbare Energien im EU-Stromsektor
    ( 2005)
    Ragwitz, Mario
    ;
    Held, A.
    Bezüglich des Erfolges bei der Förderung erneuerbarer Energieträger im Stromsektor bestehen deutliche Unterschiede zwischen den Mitgliedstaaten der Europäischen Union. Dies betrifft sowohl den Zubau an installierter Kapazität als auch die länderspezifischen Förderkosten des Ausbaus. In diesem Artikel erfolgt eine vergleichende Betrachtung der Wirksamkeit und der wirtschaftlichen Effizienz der Förderpolitiken in den Ländern der EU mit besonderem Fokus auf die Windenergie. Es zeigt sich, dass die wirksamen Systeme auch häufig die kostengünstigsten sind.