D 2.1 - Horizon Scanning for contextual factors impacting futures of democracy in Europe

This report includes the results of horizon scanning research that was conducted in two parallel strands. One strand used traditional desk research methods for scanning relevant literature, news items, and cultural expressions for trends and signals of emergent change. From this strand of research, 26 context factors were identified and classified according to the STEEPLE framework for social, technological, economic, environmental, political, legal, and ethical changes that may have an important impact on the development of democracy. For each factor, relevant literature and outlines of potential impacts and future trajectories are provided as inputs for scenario co-creation processes.