Environmental Heat Source Potentials for Decentralized Heat Pumps: A GIS-Based Analysis

Heat pumps are an essential part of decarbonization of buildings, providing efficient and sustainable heat. Analyzing the future contribution of decentralized heat pumps requires an estimation of the potential of local environmental heat sources at high spatial resolution. These heat sources are mainly ambient heat and shallow geothermal heat, and the analysis needs to account for the space available around the building, noise immissions due to the heat pump, and heat exchange rate with the ground. So far, no consistent analysis of available heat sources for both residential and non-residential buildings is publicly available. In this study, we present a GIS-based methodology developed for estimating the maximum achievable heating capacities with heat pumps and publish them at building level. It can be shown that buildings in rural areas have a median air-source heat pump potential of 30 to 85 kW, while the median in urban areas is roughly 100 kW, with quieter options up to 300 kW. This shows that even in big cities, heat pumps have potential. In most regions, the potential for air-source heat pumps is higher than ground-source heat pumps. This study lays the foundation for investigating the competitiveness of heat pumps compared to other heating options.