Beyond Competitiveness: Futures of EU's competitiveness and sustainability and the importance of bioeconomy, industrial transformation, and critical raw materials

This technical report presents the approach, steps of analysis and results of a foresight study which was set up to support the EEA in exploring of how Europe could combine competitiveness with sustainability, while avoiding environmental harm. To this end, the first step was to identify key factors influencing future European competitiveness. Subsequently, with the help of key factors, five scenarios were developed with the participation of experts and stakeholders, in which sustainability and competitiveness ambitions were achieved to varying degrees. In the third step, these visions of the future were used for a critical analysis of the EU's current competition-focused policy agenda. Sustainability experts from Eionet were then surveyed using the Delphi method. In the final stage of the analysis, the gaps and areas for action identified in the current policy agenda about impacts on social and environmental sustainability were reflected upon in a futures dialogue with EU policy experts, and options for closer integration of competitiveness and sustainability were discussed.
This combination of different foresight methods enables the gradual integration of diverse foresight expertise and perspectives, as well as interdisciplinary analyses of the social, technological, economic, environmental and political factors that influence Europe's future. The process takes uncertainties into account, promotes broad participation by experts and stakeholders, and encourages debate on interactions and potential tensions between competitiveness and sustainability goals. Scenario analysis forms the core of the study, as it systematically develops plausible but differing futures and illustrates that, depending on the different characteristics of the key influencing factors, very different degrees of policy goal achievement are possible. This leads to the realisation that, depending on future developments towards one of the possible scenarios, an adjustment of strategic targets and policy instruments will also be necessary.