Macro Economic and Ecological Aspects of Cell Production in Europe 2030

Factory announcements for battery production are increasing in number as European demand for battery cells grows. Using a Monte Carlo simulation (108 projects as of October 2025) with risk factors for individual projects, the predicted theoretical production capacity for lithium-ion batteries in Europe will rise to 1.1-1.5 TWh, enabling a real production output of 0.8-1.0 TWh by 2030. Our analysis suggests necessary cumulative investments in battery cell gigafactories of 36–139 billion euros by 2030. The industrial output of LIB cells in 2030 will have a value of 35-99 billion euros, of which the market size of battery production is around 6-17 billion euros. Furthermore, 43,000-174,000 direct jobs could be created, with the strongest impacts seen in Eastern Europe by the end of the decade. The raw material demand generated by this industry rises steeply: lithium will rise from 14 kt in 2025 to 47-133 kt, and nickel from 83 kt to 226-640 kt by 2030, implying continued import dependencies. The energy demand of European cell production will be 8.4-19.9 TWh in 2030. Furthermore, CO2 emissions of cell production will be 1.6 to 3.7 Mt CO2-eq in 2030. The volume of production scrap is estimated at 160-398 kt in 2030, creating near-term demand for recycling capacities.