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2024
Report
Title
Sozio-ökonomische Folgenabschätzung zum Projektionsbericht 2024
Title Supplement
REFOPLAN des Bundesministeriums für Umwelt, Naturschutz, nukleare Sicherheit und Verbraucherschutz. Forschungskennzahl 3722 41 511 0, FB001626
Other Title
Socio-economic impact assessment of the 2024 Projection Report
Abstract
Die sozio-ökonomische Folgenabschätzung des Projektionsberichts 2024 vergleicht das Mit-weiteren-Maßnahmen-Szenario (MWMS) mit dem Mit-Maßnahmen-Szenario (MMS) hinsichtlich Investitionsbedarf, Kosteneinsparungen und gesamtwirtschaftlicher Auswirkungen. Analysiert werden Veränderungen in den Sektoren Energie, Industrie, Gebäude und Verkehr, ergänzt durch die Abschätzung von Arbeitsmarkteffekten sowie durch die Verteilungsanalyse der Instrumentenwirkungen auf verschiedene Haushaltsgruppen in den Sektoren Gebäude und Verkehr.
Die Studie zeigt, dass im MWMS zusätzliche Investitionen in Gebäudehüllen, erneuerbare Heiztechnologien, Energiespeicher und elektrische Fahrzeuge erforderlich sind. Diese Investitionen bieten positive gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte und stärken das BIP, während sie zugleich eine höhere Nachfrage nach Arbeitskräften, insbesondere in der Gebäudesanierung und Elektromobilität, schaffen.
Die Verteilungsanalyse weist darauf hin, dass gerade im Bereich der Sanierung die bestehenden Förderprogramme oft noch nicht ausreichen, damit diese sich, insbesondere für einkommensschwache Haushalte, lohnen.
Die Studie zeigt, dass im MWMS zusätzliche Investitionen in Gebäudehüllen, erneuerbare Heiztechnologien, Energiespeicher und elektrische Fahrzeuge erforderlich sind. Diese Investitionen bieten positive gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte und stärken das BIP, während sie zugleich eine höhere Nachfrage nach Arbeitskräften, insbesondere in der Gebäudesanierung und Elektromobilität, schaffen.
Die Verteilungsanalyse weist darauf hin, dass gerade im Bereich der Sanierung die bestehenden Förderprogramme oft noch nicht ausreichen, damit diese sich, insbesondere für einkommensschwache Haushalte, lohnen.
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The socio-economic impact assessment compares the "with additional measures scenario" (MWMS) with the "with measures scenario" (MMS) of the 2024 Projection Report with a view to investment needs, cost savings and the overall economic impacts. Changes in the energy, industry, buildings and transport sectors are examined. This analysis is complemented by an estimation of labour market effects in selected areas with high investment needs and by an
analysis of the distribution effects of various instruments in the buildings and transport sectors. Additional investments in the MWMS compared to the MMS are made in particular in the building envelope, renewable heating technologies, energy storage and electric vehicles. Achieving the higher emission reductions in the MWMS necessitates significant additional investments which, based on the price development assumptions, are associated with quite low additional energy cost savings. However, additional investments and the positive effect on the balance of trade due to lower energy imports have a positive impact on the overall economy in Germany. This is reflected in a higher GDP trend in the MWMS compared to the MMS. There are structural shifts between different economic sectors. Investments in electrified vehicles, building envelopes, heat pumps and onshore wind lead to an increased labour demand in numerous
economic sectors and activities. A significant share of these shortages comes about in occupational categories for which there is currently already a shortage.
The analysis of sample households shows that the burden on households can be very high, especially for those with low incomes, but also that switching to climate-friendly solutions can ease the burden on households, especially if CO2 prices are high.
analysis of the distribution effects of various instruments in the buildings and transport sectors. Additional investments in the MWMS compared to the MMS are made in particular in the building envelope, renewable heating technologies, energy storage and electric vehicles. Achieving the higher emission reductions in the MWMS necessitates significant additional investments which, based on the price development assumptions, are associated with quite low additional energy cost savings. However, additional investments and the positive effect on the balance of trade due to lower energy imports have a positive impact on the overall economy in Germany. This is reflected in a higher GDP trend in the MWMS compared to the MMS. There are structural shifts between different economic sectors. Investments in electrified vehicles, building envelopes, heat pumps and onshore wind lead to an increased labour demand in numerous
economic sectors and activities. A significant share of these shortages comes about in occupational categories for which there is currently already a shortage.
The analysis of sample households shows that the burden on households can be very high, especially for those with low incomes, but also that switching to climate-friendly solutions can ease the burden on households, especially if CO2 prices are high.
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