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  4. Foresight: Fifty Years to Think Your Futures
 
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2024
Book Article
Title

Foresight: Fifty Years to Think Your Futures

Abstract
Foresight started with the notion of (Science and) Technology Foresight as a part of Technology Assessment (TA) but is now an independent scientific area. For a long time, Foresight mainly aimed at detecting determined futures but has developed into different directions under different headings. Most processes make use of a combination of methods to explore and develop different possible, probable or desirable futures. Foresight is more and more embedded in different institutions. There, it is carried out together with clients, and serves their specific purposes in the preparation of decision-making or science, technology and innovation policies. It offers the space to bring the different actors in the respective innovation system together. Foresight concepts are more and more accepted, and the results are distributed and used - in companies, ministries, associations, NGOs or the European Commission. Our contribution describes how Foresight has changed during the last 50 years and explains some of the aspects researchers have addressed. We conclude by highlighting two crosscutting emerging dimensions of change in Foresight, i.e. the engagement with transformative, mission-oriented agendas and the meaningful integration of machine-based approaches. Foresighters have to be aware that not only the results of their projects change but also the methods and the actors who work with them.
Author(s)
Cuhls, Kerstin  orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Dönitz, Ewa  
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Erdmann, Lorenz  orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Gransche, Bruno
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology -KIT-  
Kimpeler, Simone  orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Schirrmeister, Elna  orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Warnke, Philine  orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Mainwork
Systems and Innovation Research in Transition  
Open Access
File(s)
Download (990.63 KB)
Rights
CC BY 4.0: Creative Commons Attribution
DOI
10.1007/978-3-031-66100-6_4
10.24406/h-477863
Additional full text version
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Language
English
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI  
Keyword(s)
  • Foresight

  • Futures Research

  • Scenarios

  • Delphi surveys

  • Horizon Scanning

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