Foresight in Germany: A History of Long-Term Views and the Exploration of Futures

Foresight or futures studies or futures research gained ground at the beginning of the 1970s when the "Limits to Growth" were published, with models of the future, first scenarios, planning and political futures. But it lost impetus and re-started at the beginning of the 1990s with the notion of science and technology Foresight. Foresight in Germany followed different paths after World War II. Whereas in Eastern Germany, a prognostic and planning approach was adopted quickly, the Western part of the country was more hesitative to anticipatory governance approaches. Following US and Japanese approaches first, refinements and combinations of methods brought Germany back to the state of the art in Foresight - especially on the national level. The repertoire of methods broadened to semi-automated Horizon Scanning, virtual creative and scenario workshops and more participation. After the reunification, Foresight gained ground in Germany, like in the EU, is organized in networks and is on its way towards a scientific discipline. The contribution follows a "historical approach" based partly on literature analysis and partly on personal experience and observations.