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2023
Journal Article
Title
A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero
Abstract
The European Union (EU) recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of 55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study carries out a model inter-comparison to assess the EU’s path, from "Fit for 55" in 2030 to an intermediate milestone in 2040 and onto net zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and member-state levels. Our model results support the bloc’s ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonization of electricity by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45%-65% in 2030, to 60%-70% in 2040, and to 75%-90% in 2050 in electricity generation) and carbon capture and storage (0.5-2 GtCO2/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of member states for net zero and timing of coal phaseout, and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs.
Author(s)
Nikas, Alexandros
National Technical University of Athens -NTUA-, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Koasidis, Konstantinos
National Technical University of Athens -NTUA-, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Doukas, Haris
National Technical University of Athens -NTUA-, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Open Access
Rights
CC BY-NC-ND 4.0: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives
Language
English