Transformation in freight transport: New analysis requirements and potential modelling approaches

This paper identifies trends, knowledge and policy analysis needs and possibilities for new modelling for freight transport in the EU. A literature review of developments in freight transport was conducted, together with an online survey and expert interviews. Areas where information and insights are lacking are:
• How digitalisation and decarbonisation will drive structural change in logistics.
• Scenario simulations of digitalised logistics structures with zero-carbon energy.
• Policy package simulations from models of non-marginal structural change.
The modelling approaches to sustainability transitions offer general concepts for addressing structural and system change. Views of future changes can be developed through qualitative foresight analysis and scenario development with stakeholders, with many opportunities for combined qualitative and quantitative analyses.