A System Dynamics Approach to Technological Learning Impact for the Cost Estimation of Solar Photovoltaics

Technological learning curve models have been continuously used to estimate the cost development of solar photovoltaics (PV) for climate mitigation targets over time. They can integrate several technical sources that influence the learning process. Yet, the accurate and realistic learning curve that reflects the cost estimations of PV development is still challenging to determine. To address this question, we develop four hypothetical-alternative learning curve models by proposing different combinations of technological learning sources, including both local and global techno-logical experience and knowledge stock. We specifically adopt the system dynamics approach to focus on the non-linear relationship and dynamic interaction between the cost development and technological learning source. By applying this approach to Chinese PV systems, the results reveal that the suitability and accuracy of learning curve models for cost estimation are dependent on the development stages of PV systems. At each stage, different models exhibit different levels of closure in cost estimation. Furthermore, our analysis underscores the critical role of incorporating global technical sources into learning curve models.