No-Regret Strategies for Decaorbonising Space and Water Heating

Space and water heating accounts for almost one third of the European final energy consumption. Thus, the sector needs special attention in the decarbonisation process. So far there are still unanswered questions on the impact of different decarbonisation strategies on the overall energy system as a whole and about most favourable decarbonisation pathways. This paper presents alternative decarbonisation pathways for space and water heating in the EU-27 by 2050 taking into account the interaction with the upstream supply sector. Thus, the study should contribute to better understand the long-term perspectives and related costs of different technology and policy choices. Following no-regret strategies were developed: (1) a high level of building renovation, leading to about 45% reduction of final energy demand, (2) a high diffusion of heat pumps and district heating in suitable areas and (3) at least a partial if not complete phase out of gas for space and water heating should be prepared. Based on the scenario modelling work, recommendations for policy design were developed.