Estimating the GDP effect of Open Source Software and its complementarities with R&D and patents: evidence and policy implications

Open Source Software (OSS) has become an increasingly important knowledge asset in modern economies. However, the economic impact of OSS on countries’ GDP is ambivalent due to its public good character. Using a cross-country panel from 2000 to 2018, including 25 of the largest EU countries plus the USA, Japan, Korea, Canada, China, Norway, and Switzerland, matching OSS commits to GitHub to macroeconomic data provided by the OECD, our results confirm the dual nature of OSS. On the one hand, the open-access character creates great learning potential by providing a commonly accessible productive resource for all countries. On the other hand, it creates outward-directed spillovers associated with own OSS contributions. Accordingly, on average, we find that countries experience an increase in GDP when the world stock of OSS grows. However, smaller countries experience a decline in GDP resulting from their own contributions due to knowledge spillovers. The net effect is nonetheless positive. If no country contributed to OSS development, GDP for the average country would be 2.2% lower in the long run. Moreover, the losses associated with unintended spillovers are lower for countries with a higher R&D and patenting intensity. Based on our findings, we derive implications for policies and regulations concerning OSS.