Impact assessment of power-to-X options in the German residential sector

Driven by climate protection objectives, the energy system is becoming increasingly electrified and Power-to-X (PtX) options are becoming more widespread. Promising PtX options can be found in particular with electric vehicles and heat pumps in the residential sector. In order to consider their potential and possible influences on the energy system in planning and decision-making processes, it is important to know their local impact. Firstly, a methodology is proposed that forecasts the annual local demand at a NUTS-3 level using a bottom-up model. Secondly, the local demands of selected regions are mapped in an agent-based simulation model to derive annual load shift potentials by comparing uncontrolled and price-controlled operating modes. The methodology is demonstrated in a case study for Germany, which points out that local analyses can deviate significantly from cross-regional studies with regard to the medium-term effects on demand.