A global approach to risk assessment of critical infrastructures

We consider a global approach to risk analysis of complex Critical Infrastructures (CI) through a new generation of Decision Support System for the prediction of Crisis Scenarios induced by natural hazards. The system starts from accurate, high resolution LAM (Local Area Model) providing weather forecast and precipitation abundances. These results, used in conjunction to GIS databases containing thematic information at the regional scale, are used to evaluate impacts on population, buildings, infrastructures. Generated crisis scenarios are then used in combination with CIs simulators, to gain estimates of the reduction (or loss) in the functionality of CIs, also considering interdependency effects. Implementation of such DSS is going to be accomplished in the frame of a large paneuropean network, CIPRNET (Critical Infrastructures Prepardness and Resilience Network) recently started.