Futures Assessed alongside socio-Technical Evolutions (FATE)

The NATO SAS-123 was initiated in order to study both scenarios of the future and Socio-Technical Systems (STS) concurrently; develop and assess the criteria for their interactions; and determine how these interacting variables may cause disruptions within the defence and security sectors. The resultant of our research is the FATE method. This method evolved through an iterative process with a search of literature, exploration of various existing theories to assess how such interactions occur and evolve, presentation at academic fora and conducting trials in several defence settings. The literature search found little on the simultaneous interaction of the STS in concert with scenarios of the future even though the discipline of foresight studies these two variables independently. The prospective multilayer framework theory lay the foundation for FATE. The method provides a tool that enables a better understanding of synergistic impacts of socio technical systems that influence development, adoption, use and impacts of technologies, which in turn, would allow defence and security organisations to make more informed decisions about longer-term plans and strategies that will have to be, to the extent possible, future-proofed.