Risk analysis in synchro-modal logistics networks

SYNCHRO-NET is a Horizon2020 European research project that aims to over- come the stress due to increasing transportation distances, higher complexity, and vulnerability of modern supply chains. In SYNCHRO-NET consortium, considering the high uncertainty of synchro-modal transportation scenarios, Risk Analysis module is as an essential part to contribute to a cost-effective solution. The paper aims at the development of the decision in synchro-modal freight considering the potential risks (e.g. time delay, non exibility and safety issues). Since the fastest route may not be the best when there are other safer or cheaper routes, it is necessary to include risk analysis considering different risk aspects. The paper begins with an overview of the components in the SYNCHRO-NET system including the trip planner. Then the design of historicalstorage for storing data on execution and stakeholder's experience is introduced. Next, minimal sample size are analyzed to guarantee the balance of time efficiency and precision, and there are detailed explanation of two working phases (stochastic distribution functions and feature selection) in Risk Profiler (see chapter 4). There are general discussions about the structure, and working principle of Risk Analysis module including the solution approach named Monte Carlo Rollout which contains 2 players \playing the game" to simulate the situation of inter-modal transportation afflicted with several possible disturbances (time delay, path deviation and mode deviation). After that, the implementation of the Risk Analysis is described in detail, especially the meaning of four Key Risk Indicators. And then in the client side development, how to show to end users the values of four different risk aspects are introduced. Finally the main service functions are introduced.