• English
  • Deutsch
  • Log In
    Password Login
    or
  • Research Outputs
  • Projects
  • Researchers
  • Institutes
  • Statistics
Repository logo
Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft
  1. Home
  2. Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft
  3. Artikel
  4. Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison
 
  • Details
  • Full
Options
2021
Journal Article
Titel

Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison

Abstract
Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in nonmodellingscience. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario spacetraces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment,energy system and sectoralmodels, we carry out amodel inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and researchquestions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is ascenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating itscurrent policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-202040% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0-2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carboncapture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, withmost hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefitsfrom deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewablesdominatedinvestment needs.
Author(s)
Nikas, Alexandros
National Technical University of Athens, Energy Policy Unit
Elia, Alessia
E4SMA S.r.l., Turin
Boitier, Baptiste
SEURECO, Paris
Koasidis, Konstantinos
National Technical University of Athens, Energy Policy Unit
Doukas, Haris
National Technical University of Athens, Energy Policy Unit
Cassetti, Gabriele
E4SMA S.r.l., Turin
Anger-Kraavi, Annela
Univ. of Cambridge, Climate Change Policy Group
Bui, Ha
Cambridge Econometrics
Campagnolo, Lorenza
EIEE, Venice; Ca'Foscari Univ. of Venice; CMCC, Venice
De Miglio, Rocco
E4SMA S.r.l., Turin
Delpiazzo, Elisa
EIEE, Venice; Ca'Foscari Univ. of Venice; CMCC, Venice
Fougeyrollas, Arnaud
SEURECO, Paris
Gambhir, Ajay
Imperial College London, Grantham Inst. for Climate Change and the Environment
Gargiulo, Maurizio
E4SMA S.r.l., Turin, Italy
Giarola, Sara
Imperial College London, Department of Chemical Engineering
Grant, Neil
Imperial College London, Grantham Inst. for Climate Change and the Environment
Hawkes, Adam
Imperial College London, Department of Chemical Engineering
Herbst, Andrea
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
Köberle, Alexandre C.
Imperial College London, Grantham Inst. for Climate Change and the Environment
Kolpakov, Andrey
Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Le Mouël, Pierre
SEURECO, Paris
McWilliams, Ben
Bruegel, Brussels
Mittal, Shivika
Imperial College London, Grantham Inst. for Climate Change and the Environment
Moreno, Jorge
Basque Centre for Climate Change, Leioa
Neuner, Felix
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
Perdana, Sigit
EPFL, Lausanne
Peters, Glen P.
CICERO, Oslo
Plötz, Patrick orcid-logo
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
Rogelj, Joeri
Imperial College London, Grantham Inst. for Climate Change and the Environment; IIASA, Laxenburg
Sognnæs, Ida
CICERO, Oslo
van de Ven, Dirk-Jan
Basque Centre for Climate Change, Leioa
Vielle, Marc
EPFL, Lausanne
Zachmann, Georg
Bruegel, Brussels
Zagamé, Paul
SEURECO, Paris; Univ. Paris
Chiodi, Alessandro
E4SMA S.r.l., Turin
Zeitschrift
Science of the Total Environment
DOI
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148549
File(s)
N-637902.pdf (1.34 MB)
Language
English
google-scholar
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
Tags
  • europe

  • energy system models

  • Model inter-comparison

  • Stakeholder engagement

  • climate policy

  • Integrated assessment models

  • Cookie settings
  • Imprint
  • Privacy policy
  • Api
  • Send Feedback
© 2022